Escape or sprint? Both seem possible on the 19th stage of the 2023 Tour de France. But it is likely that a sprint will decide the day’s victory either way. After all, after the last topographical obstacle, the Cote d’Ivory (2.4 km, 5.9%), 28 km before the finish, the approach is literally straightforward. The last seven kilometres go straight ahead on a main road. Should a rider be in the lead, he is a perfect hunting victim. Should a breakaway prevail, it will probably come to a sprint of a group. If the peloton makes it over the hills of the day, the sprint group will be larger.
The finish straight is slightly uphill. In the last 1,000 meters, the difference in altitude is four meters. Does this have an impact on the sprint?
In our 150-meter sprint simulation, it’s once again a matter of hundredths of a second. Should Jasper Philipsen be in the sprint, he has good cards in our simulation, because his Canyon machine belongs to the circle of the three fastest: Canyon Aeroad, Cervelo S5 and Cannondale System Six. The final speed in our sprint simulation is 68 km/h - assuming that the start speed is 62 km/h.
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in details. Of course, we have not yet been able to examine last-minute prototypes either.
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes for TOUR about technology and training topics and develops testing methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years, they are also used by professional teams.