The second-longest stage has a profile that could play into the hands of a breakaway group: 3,550 meters of elevation gain must be overcome. Five climbs are classified as third category, with the first inviting a breakaway after just 35.5 kilometers. In the final, there is another fourth category climb to master, the Côte de Vaudry (1.2 km, 7.2%). In the middle section, the Côte is up to 11 percent steep and flattens out towards the top. From there, it is another 4.4 kilometers to the finish. The 700-meter-long final ramp has an average gradient of 10.2 percent, but reaches 14 percent before the finish.
A mass sprint is out of the question. Either a breakaway group will succeed, or there will be a showdown between a reduced field with attacks on the last two climbs. A GC rider could also try to gain a few seconds.
From a material point of view, the stage is tricky. An aerodynamically optimized bike is best for a long breakaway, that much is clear, regardless of how many peaks there are in the undulating profile. We know this from numerous calculations over the last few years. Over a longer distance, aerodynamics always wins out, and we're talking minutes in a direct comparison between aerodynamically optimized bikes and those that don't exploit their potential.
A late decision for the stage victory, for example with a sprint on the final climb, is more difficult to assess from a material point of view. With a 14% gradient shortly before the finish, experience shows that the slightly lighter bike prevails.
If the outcome of the final is still open, a bike that combines mini weight with maximum aerodynamics is the best choice, as it ensures that the rider is always optimally equipped. This would be the case, for example, if the attack were launched on the penultimate climb and the rider had to defend their lead until the final climb.
Our colleagues on site at the Tour de France were able to weigh a few bikes and found an example of how it is possible to combine minimal weight with top aerodynamics: Jonas Vingegaard's Cervélo S5 weighs 6950 grams in race-ready condition with a 52 frame size and 1x12 drivetrain. By comparison, Primož Roglič's Specialized Tarmac SL8 weighed in at 6920 grams on the Tour scales, but has slightly poorer aero values (209 instead of 202 W). Visma | Lease a Bike's trick is familiar from last year: the 1x12 drivetrain pushes the weight close to the UCI mark of 6.8 kg. Provided the gear ratio range is sufficient, the single-chainring strategy is a good decision from a technical point of view and makes the aero racer a universal weapon. No wonder Jonas Vingegaard used this bike on the first stages.
At the other end of the spectrum, our colleagues found Mathieu van der Poel's bike. His Canyon Aeroad weighed in at 8020 grams, making it significantly heavier than a production bike. The bike of Jasper Philipsen, who had to left the race after his crash, is 200 g lighter according to our weighing. This is also significantly above the weight of the standard bike. The extra weight invites speculation: do the pros ride reinforced frames? There is hardly any other explanation for the extra weight. The 30 mm tires, which are now standard, are not enough to explain it. We have updated our list and will now use the weighed weight of Mathieu van der Poel's bike.
The fastest bike gains 0.014 seconds in the simulated final sprint on the finish climb, which according to our calculations is the S5 in the 1x12 setup. Converted, this is a mathematical advantage of a good eight centimeters over the second-place bike.
The bikes that follow are those that are close to the 6.8 kg mark. Those that are more aerodynamic are further ahead.
The table shows that weight provides the basis for sorting in the 14% steep section, but that aerodynamics also influence the ranking on the mountain.
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The machines used in the Tour de France may differ in detail. Of course, we were not yet able to examine last-minute prototypes. Background information on the simulation.
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes for TOUR about technology and training topics and develops testing methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years, they are also used by professional teams.