Tour de France 2024 - Stage 9: Troyes - Troyes | 199 Kilometers
The Tour de France turns off-road: 14 gravel sectors, which spice up the second half of the stage in particular, are the attraction of the ninth stage, which has a total of 2,000 meters of elevation gain. The terrain is reminiscent of the Italian Strade Bianche race, with the French dirt roads leaving a somewhat rougher impression on initial exploration. But the ASO will certainly have swept the roads clean and plugged the larger holes before the riders arrive. The Strade Bianche race definitely has a much more demanding profile with 3940 meters of climbing.
The slippery surface could still shake up the classification. We expect a preliminary decision to be made from kilometer 105 onwards, when there are some jagged uphill sections on gravel. Tadej Pogacar is expected to attack here - possibly even as a soloist. With his superior victory after an 80-kilometer solo at the Strade Bianche this year, he has shown how well he can cope with the surface. Mathieu van der Poel, the dominator of Paris-Roubaix, will also have the stage marked on his calendar and will have a stage win firmly in his sights. It is conceivable that it will come down to an elimination race between the strongest riders, who have everything you need for this type of race: Skill, confidence and engine power. Luck also plays a role, as the probability of defects naturally increases in this terrain. This stage could therefore be dangerous for Jonas Vingegaard and other light weight climbers. If things go unfavorably for the mountain fleas, there could be a gap of minutes.
The technical point of view
From a technical point of view, two components are particularly important: aerodynamics and the right tire with the right air pressure to roll smoothly over the stones without punctures. With Continental as tire sponsor, Pogacar clearly has a good hand here and, above all, a tried and tested configuration. At Strade Bianche, Pogacar rode 30 Conti GP 5000 STR tires without tubes on Enve SES 4.5 wheels. We also expect this combination on the ninth stage.
The real tire width on the wide Enve rims should be well over 32 mm. The air pressure will be set low to take full advantage of this set-up. We consider values of around four bar to be realistic.
We see the effectively narrower tire/rim combinations, which Visma| Lease a bike prefers to use and also used at Strade Bianche this year, as a disadvantage on this stage - less suspension, less puncture protection, more rolling resistance. On the other hand, with the Cervelo S5, the team has the aerodynamically superior package at the start, which of course also helps in an elimination race.
Enve’s website mentions power figures from Pogacar’s ride on the Strade Bianche - but without naming the source. The ride can be tracked on Strava, but without power data. According to Enve, the Slovenian achieved a five-minute best of 460 watts on his winning ride, while the average power output over two hours is said to have been 340 watts. Very good values, but nothing out of this world.
However, the high continuous power underscores the fact that it is necessary to ride as efficiently as possible on such a long escape - in other words, to minimize the riding resistance. As with the bone-shaking Paris-Roubaix, we therefore expect aero material at the start of the ninth stage, with the widest tires the bikes allow.
Number of the day: 3:45 minutes
The fastest bike on a simulated escape over the final 93.8 kilometers takes 3:45 minutes over the slowest bike in our list. As expected, aero bikes are in the lead.
The (almost) entire field at a glance*
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in some details. Of course, we have also not yet been able to examine last-minute prototypes. Background to the simulation.
The table shows that the aero bolides are also the first choice on gravel. We expect an average speed of 44-45 km/h. The organizer also thinks an average of 47 km/h is possible. So the gravel will probably not really slow down the race.
Our expert
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes for TOUR about technology and training topics and develops testing methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years, they are also used by professional teams.
