Tour de France 2024 - Stage 4: Pinerolo - Valloire | 139.6 Kilometers
Off to the mountains! The roll-in is over, today the massive Galibier is on the program. In principle, it’s a constant uphill or downhill, the altitude meters add up to 3600. The sprinters, who were so active yesterday, will join together early today to form a gruppetto and roll off the stage with a sense of proportion and an eye on the power meter in order to reach the finish inside the time limit. The sprinters are more likely to accelerate downhill, where they can make up some ground with risk and technique.
It is also to be expected that contenders for the mountain jersey will try to get away early in the hope of keeping the cracks at bay. However, no well-known rider will get a free ride this early in the Tour. It is more likely to be an exchange of blows between the classification riders. Into the Galibier, the helpers will be stretched out in front of the captains and step on the gas. As the mountain gets steeper, the elimination race begins. The co-leaders will then take the lead and provide slipstream on the climbs for their captains. With a climbing speed of around 30 km/h in the milder sections of the mountain, it makes a huge difference whether you are riding solo or have a rider in front of you.
But will there be an attack? Will there be a serious fight for the classification? Probably yes. The question is where the attack will come. The logical place is the steepest part of the climb, four kilometers before the summit, where the gradient is 9 percent.
Tour de France 2024: Downhill finale on stage 4
There are two aspects to consider in our scenario: The attack presumably takes place where the mountain is particularly steep and the downhill riding time in our scenario is longer than the uphill riding time. In addition, the descent is tricky. There are a series of difficult bends right at the start. Later on, it becomes a scooter route - but not so steep that you can do it without pedaling.
Tom Pidcock rode up and away from his fellow breakaway riders on this descent on stage 12 in 2022 and later won the stage that ended in Alpe d’Huez. Professionals can watch Pidcock’s ride on YouTube as an instructional ride.
Today, however, the descent has even more significance, as the finish is in the valley. Top speeds of over 80 km/h are expected in the upper, steeper part of the descent. Further down, the speed is 60-70 km/h, so there is still pedaling work to be done. The descent places high demands on riding technique. On the other hand, it is clear that an aero setup helps enormously here.
Number of the day: 38 seconds
Under the outlined conditions - the attack four kilometers before the summit - the fastest bike is once again an aero bike. We calculate the Canyon Aeroad CFR to have the fastest overall time and a 38 second lead over the Cervelo R5.
A lightweight bike weighting 6.8 kg would be a few tenths per second faster than the Canyon on the steepest climb, but would be a big handicap further on. Cervelos S5, second in the overall riding time despite being significantly overweight, loses around one second per kilometer on the climbs compared to light bikes, but is right at the front on the descents. A completely non-aerodynamic bike like the Cervelo R5, on the other hand, is highly unsuitable for a downhill final. Which bike will Jonas Vingegaard choose? Tadej Pogacar’s Colnago V4Rs is also not convincing in the downhill discipline.
Will another team take the stage win? A logical candidate is Tom Pidcock, who has already proven how well he masters the descent. If he is at the front at the Galibier, he is the logical contender for victory.
The (almost) entire field at a glance*
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in some details. Of course, we have also not yet been able to examine last-minute prototypes. Background to the simulation.
The ranking of the bikes for the final of the fourth stage reveals that aero bikes also score points in the high mountains - at least when the finish is in the valley.
However, in order to exploit technical advantages, a fearless and technically skilled rider is required above all. If you want to win today, you have to be an expert both uphill and downhill.
Our expert
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes for TOUR about technology and training topics and develops testing methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years, they are also used by professional teams.
