Who are the Vuelta favourites? The contenders for the red jersey in the TOUR-Check
Thomas Goldmann
· 19.08.2022
Rarely has it been as difficult to identify a clear favourite ahead of a major national tour as it is ahead of the 2022 Vuelta. With Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar, the two dominators of the Tour de France and that's what makes the battle for the red jersey so exciting. We take a closer look at the potential Vuelta winners.
* Ben O'Connor - 26 years old - AG2R Citroën Team
The Australian had set off in July to confirm his fourth place in the Tour de France from the previous year. That came to nothing. He lost a lot of time early on and did not start the 10th stage. His team announced that he was suffering from a muscle injury in his buttocks. Since then, O'Connor has not taken part in any more races, but according to sporting director Julien Jurdie, he has trained well. A clear goal for the Vuelta in terms of the overall standings has not been defined.
* Pavel Sivakov - 25 years - Ineos Grenadiers
Sivakov has often shone in smaller tours in the past. Will the knot finally burst at a Grand Tour? So far, the Frenchman has competed in six three-week tours, finishing ninth in the Giro d'Italia 2019 as the best result.
His current form means that he is at least among the favourites. Sivakov recently finished second at the Clasica San Sebastian and won the Tour of Burgos at the beginning of August - one of the most important preparatory races for the Vuelta. However, with other top riders such as Richard Carapaz and Tao Geoghegan Hart at Ineos Grenadiers, it is questionable whether he will be allowed to ride on his own account.
* Juan Ayuso - 19 years old - UAE Team Emirates
This young man is regarded as one of the greatest talents in international cycling. At just 19 years old, Ayuso is competing in his first major national tour and has Joao Almeida as his team captain. The youngster's first priority is to learn and cope with the strain of a three-week tour.
This may not prevent the Spaniard from making his big breakthrough at the Vuelta and following in the footsteps of Tadej Pogacar. The Slovenian superstar also made his first big impression at the Tour of Spain in 2019 with third place, was only 20 years old and, like Ayuso, rode for Team UAE Emirates.
* Mikel Landa - 32 years old - Bahrain Victorious
The Basque rider Landa would normally be one of the top favourites to win the Vuelta. However, his performances at the Tour of Burgos cast serious doubt on Landa's form. The 32-year-old climbing specialist was unable to make his mark and finished a distant 32nd in the mountain finish at the Lagunas de Neila. At a press conference before the race, Landa played down his classification ambitions accordingly. That's why he only got one star.
** Tao Geoghegan Hart - 27 years old - Ineos Grenadiers
In the form of the Giro d'Italia 2020, which he won, the Briton would be a serious favourite. However, Geoghegan Hart has been far from this form recently. At least he showed an upward trend at the Tour of Burgos (13th place at the end), which gives hope that he can form the spearhead of Ineos Grenadiers at the Vuelta together with Richard Carapaz and Sivakov.
** Wilco Kelderman - 31 years old - Bora-Hansgrohe
The Dutchman is strong in time trials and on the climbs. He already finished fifth in the 2021 Tour de France and third in the 2020 Giro d'Italia. Can he achieve a similarly good result this time? With Jai Hindley and Sergio Higuita, he has strong competition within the team. But perhaps Bora-Hansgrohe will harmonise just as well as they did at the Giro this May and Kelderman will end up being the one they ride for.
** Sergio Higuita - 25 years - Bora-Hansgrohe
The lightweight Colombian is contesting his first major national tour for Bora-Hansgrohe and proved to be in very good form at the Tour of Poland. The route of the Vuelta should suit the 25-year-old very well.
His handicap is the individual time trial and the fact that two other riders in his team (Jai Hindley and Wilco Kelderman) are also likely to claim the captain's role.
** Enric Mas - 27 years old - Movistar
The Mallorcan leads Team Movistar at the Vuelta together with veteran star Alejandro Valverde. Mas has already finished second on the podium twice (2018 and 2021). Does that mean he deserves more than two stars? No. Because the 27-year-old's performances - just like those of Movistar - have been more than discreet this year. His last race was the Tour de France, which he had to leave after stage 18 in eleventh place with a coronavirus infection. There are many question marks behind Mas.
*** Remco Evenepoel - 22 years - Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl
The Belgian is considered by the bookmakers to be one of the top favourites to win the Vuelta. His performance at the Clasica San Sebastian was impressive when he crushed the competition at the end of July. However, that was a one-day race and not a three-week tour. The 22-year-old has only competed in one of these so far: the Giro d'Italia 2021, where Evenepoel also started with great expectations, but had to end the tour prematurely after the 17th stage, over an hour behind the leader.
The super-talented driver still lacks the ability to drive economically, which was also evident in the recent Tour de Suisse was seen in June. Moreover, Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl is more of a classics team and not a Grand Tour-winning team. Evenepoel has the chance to prove his critics wrong again at the Vuelta - and he has every right to do so.
*** Miguel Angel Lopez - 28 years old - Astana Qazaqstan
The Colombian mountain specialist is considered an enfant terrible. At the Giro d'Italia, he once punched a fan in the face after the fan knocked him off his bike, and most recently he was suspended by Astana after being targeted by investigators at Madrid airport. The Kazakh racing team has since pardoned him and Lopez is in very good form.
He finished third overall in the Tour of Burgos. He has already finished fifth in the Vuelta a Espana and won three stages. In terms of potential, he could finish on the podium or even win the overall. But he needs to have his nerves under control. Actions like the one at the 2021 Vuelta, when he rebelled against his own team for no apparent reason and threw in the towel, cast doubt on this.
**** Simon Yates - 30 years - BikeExchange-Jayco
The Brit has already won the Vuelta once in 2018. That year was a year of light and shade for Yates: on the one hand, he celebrated his only overall Grand Tour victory to date, while on the other, cycling fans coined the phrase "doing the Yates" in 2018. This refers to riding off quickly and then collapsing at the end.
In Yates' case, this refers to the 2018 Giro d'Italia, where the climbing specialist was extremely dominant but squandered his energy unnecessarily. Three days before the end of the Giro, this led to a collapse for the Briton that has rarely been seen before.
This could be Yates' undoing again in 2022. He has been in outstanding form since the end of July - too early?
**** Joao Almeida - 24 years old - UAE Team Emirates
The Portuguese rider is entering the prime of his cycling career. He starts the Vuelta as captain of UAE Team Emirates and is one of the top favourites. He climbs well and is strong in the time trial. With his victory at the Lagunas de Neila, he has already proven his good form at the Tour of Burgos.
However, Almeida has not yet made it onto the podium of a Grand Tour - his best result was fourth place at the 2020 Giro. Will that change at the Vuelta?
**** Richard Carapaz - 29 years old - Ineos Grenadiers
The 2019 Giro winner probably has the strongest team in the mountains and is hard to shake off there himself. His only weak point is the time trial, where he will probably have to accept a gap to riders like Primoz Roglic.
The Vuelta will also see a reunion with Jai Hindley, who took the pink jersey off Carapaz shortly before the end of the Giro. It is quite possible that the Vuelta will be a rematch.
**** Jai Hindley - 26 years - Bora-Hansgrohe
Can the Australian achieve the double of Giro and Vuelta victory in one year? The last time Alberto Contador achieved this was in 2008. The signs are good. Hindley has a very strong team at his side and his form curve is pointing upwards in good time. After problems at the Clasica San Sebastian, he finished seventh at the Tour of Burgos.
Similar to Carapaz, the time trial is Hindley's Achilles heel. However, with a mountain form like at the Giro on the Fedaia Pass, where he stormed into the maglia rosa, his time trial weakness should not be too serious.
**** Primoz Roglic - 32 years - Jumbo-Visma
The reigning Vuelta winner is aiming for his fourth title in a row. This would bring him level with record winner Roberto Heras. Ironically, the Vuelta has often been a kind of "consolation prize" for the Slovenian, as it didn't quite work out with victory in the Tour de France. This year was no exception.
After his serious crash in France, it was only decided at the last minute that he would start the Tour of Spain at all. There is a very big question mark over his form. No question: Roglic is the most complete rider in this starting field: irresistible on the climbs and hard to beat in the time trial. But due to a lack of proof of performance, he only gets four stars instead of five, like four other competitors.
The Vuelta favourites by stars
**** Yates, Almeida, Carapaz, Hindley, Roglic
*** Evenepoel, Lopez
** Geoghegan Hart, Kelderman, Higuita, Mas
* O'Connor, Sivakov, Ayuso, Landa
