The 2026 Tour de France is just around the corner and promises to be another thrilling event this year. From 4 to 26 July, the route will take the riders from the start in Barcelona to the French capital, Paris. Once again, the focus is on who can win the world’s greatest stage race and whether there is anyone at all capable of beating the dominant force of recent years. Here are the favourites for the overall victory in the Tour de France.
The Tour de France favourites, ranked by stars*
***** Tadej Pogačar
**** Jonas Vingegaard
*** Paul Seixas, Florian Lipowitz
** Juan Ayuso, Tobias Halland Johannessen
* Yara Kastelijn, Juliette Berthet, Cédrine Kerbaol
* The more stars a driver receives, the higher their chances are considered to be
Please note: At the time of publication, the final start list has not yet been 100 per cent confirmed. It is possible that some of the riders mentioned here may not take part.
The favourites to win the Tour de France overall
The focus is clearly on Tadej Pogačar. The Slovenian has already won the Tour de France several times, most recently in 2024 and 2025, and has been in such fine form for some time now that he appears virtually unbeatable. Whenever Pogačar starts a Grand Tour these days, victory is almost a foregone conclusion. He combines exceptional explosiveness in the mountains with tactical awareness and remarkable consistency over three weeks. Even minor weaknesses never prove decisive for him, because he can compensate for them faster than anyone else. As a result, he once again goes into the race as the clear favourite.
Jonas Vingegaard remains the biggest challenger. The Dane won the Tour de France in 2022 and 2023 and was, for a long time, the only rider who could pose a serious threat to Pogačar. In the last two editions, however, he came off second best, as the gap between the two has become clear. This year, however, Vingegaard has adjusted his approach and has already won the Giro d’Italia. Buoyed by this success and having tailored his preparation for the highlight in July, he is set to mount another challenge. Whether this new approach will be enough to beat Pogačar remains to be seen. Vingegaard, too, will probably need the race to go perfectly if he is to make up those crucial seconds.
National hopefuls
Paul Seixas, regarded as a major talent in international cycling, is bringing a breath of fresh air to the race. The 19-year-old Frenchman is the centre of attention in his first Tour de France, as he is seen as his country’s great hope. His performances to date point to enormous potential, and he seems to have coped well with the pressure so far. Nevertheless, the Tour is a challenge in a league of its own. Three weeks in the constant spotlight, coupled with physical and mental strain, are a huge task even for experienced riders. Added to this is the fact that Seixas has rarely raced directly against the two dominant riders this year. His role therefore remains difficult to assess. On paper, he is one of the strongest riders behind the top favourites, but he could run into problems as the race progresses due to a lack of experience.
From a German perspective, all eyes are on Florian Lipowitz. Following his third-place finish in last year’s Tour de France, he is once again lining up at the start with high ambitions. He is regarded as a particularly consistent rider who can maintain his performance at a very high level over the course of three weeks. His steady riding style works particularly well for him on the long climbs. Even when he is temporarily dropped by the strongest riders, he often manages to make up time by sticking to his own rhythm, or at least to limit the damage. However, the competition has become even fiercer this year, so securing another podium place will be a tough ask.
A two-man leadership at Red Bull
A unique situation has arisen within his team, as Remco Evenepoel is a second captain in the Red Bull – Bora – hansgrohe line-up. Evenepoel possesses immense individual talent and, according to performance data, appears to be in the form of his life. At the same time, he has repeatedly struggled in the past to maintain that level of performance consistently over three weeks. Furthermore, the question remains as to how the division of roles within the team will work during the Tour de France. If they manage to utilise the dual leadership effectively, it could be a strategic advantage. Should any confusion arise, however, it could cost valuable time and energy – it wouldn’t be the first time.
Behind these names comes a group of riders who, whilst not considered top favourites, can still have a say in the battle for the top places. Juan Ayuso is one of them, but he has repeatedly shown recently that he cannot get through a Grand Tour without significant dips in form. His aim will therefore be more likely to be a place among the top five. The situation is similar for Tobias Halland Johannessen, who impresses above all with his consistency and already achieved a strong result last year. He is also in good form this season and could once again find himself in the extended leading group.
The Outsiders and Helpers
Lenny Martinez, Richard Carapaz and Ben O’Connor, on the other hand, are more likely to be considered outsiders. Whilst they certainly have the quality needed to achieve strong stage results or good placings in the general classification, it would take an extraordinary turn of events for them to challenge for the overall victory. However, especially in a three-week stage race, surprises can never be ruled out.
Nor should we underestimate the key support riders for the big favourites, who themselves have the potential to secure top places in the general classification but usually have to put their own ambitions second to the team. Isaac del Toro, in particular, is coming into the spotlight. In terms of ability, the young rider could easily be in contention for the top places himself, but his primary role is as a support rider for Tadej Pogačar. Should anything unforeseen happen to the top favourite, del Toro would be the obvious alternative for the general classification. Matteo Jorgenson and Matthias Skjelmose are also among those riders who have what it takes to achieve a strong overall result. In practice, however, they will repeatedly have to expend significant energy to support their captains.
Overall, there are many indications that victory will once again go to Tadej Pogačar. Nevertheless, this year’s Tour offers enough exciting elements to ensure the race remains wide open. With a revitalised Vingegaard, up-and-coming talents such as Seixas and Lipowitz, and a stronger chasing group, the race could develop with more dynamism than in previous years.
Leon Weidner
Working student
