Start list & favourites Milan-San Remo: Pogacar, van der Poel - and who else?

Thomas Goldmann

· 15.03.2024

Favourites for Milan-San Remo 2024: Jasper Philipsen

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Photo: picture alliance/dpa/Belga / David Pintens

Milan-San Remo is the first cycling monument of the year. The search is on for the rider who will cheer after almost 300 kilometres on the Ligurian coast. TOUR takes a closer look at the favourites.

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Milan-San Remo 2024 - the most important facts in brief

Date: Saturday, 16 March 2024, start 10:00 am, finish ~ 5:00 pm
Distance: 288 kilometres
Start: Pavia, Target: San Remo
UCI category: World Tour
Track, TV broadcast & live stream
Pogacar on the hunt for the next monument
To the race report

The TOUR favourites by stars*

* Jasper Philipsen, Olav Kooij, Michael Matthews, Alexander Kristoff, Maxim van Gils

** Biniam Girmay, Christophe Laporte, Jonathan Milan

*** Matej Mohoric, Filippo Ganna, Thomas Pidcock

**** Mads Pedersen, Alberto Bettiol

***** Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogacar

* The more stars a driver receives, the stronger he is rated

Milan-San Remo 2024: No bunch sprint again?

John Degenkolb was the last German to win Milan-San Remo in 2015 - he won't be at the start in 2024. Back then it was a classic sprint

Photo: Getty Images/Tim De WaeleJohn Degenkolb was the last German to win Milan-San Remo in 2015 - he won't be at the start in 2024. Back then it was a classic sprint

There was a time when Milan-San Remo was a race for the sprinters - but the last few years tell a different story. 2016 was the last time there was a classic sprint at the end of the 300-kilometre ride into the spring - won by Arnaud Demare. In 2024, the pure sprinters are likely to have bad cards.

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After all, last year's protagonists are expected to be at the front again at the 115th edition of the "Classicissima" - two in particular: Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates). It was Van der Poel who won the 2023 race. The Dutchman successfully parried Pogacar's attack on the Poggio di San Remo, the main obstacle of the day, and blew away the competition with an irresistible attack. Will Pogacar get his revenge this year? That's hard to say. What is certain is that the two-time winner of the Tour de France is in outstanding form, which he proved with his Monster solo over 80 kilometres at Strade Bianche has proven. In terms of strength of form, hardly anyone can hold a candle to him.

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Tadej Pogacar: Milan-San Remo not hard enough

Photo: picture alliance / RothIn 2023, Tadej Pogacar (front) was unable to shake off the competition on the Poggio

It is not for nothing that Milan-San Remo is said to be the easiest of the five cycling monuments, but also the most difficult to win. Pogacar has already realised this. He was already in impressive form last year - but simply lacked the terrain to pull away. The Poggio di San Remo is not challenging enough for a rider like Pogacar to make a big difference. It takes more of a puncheur than a climber to do that. It's not for nothing that only one Grand Tour winner, Vincenzo Nibali, has won the "Primavera" this millennium. The Italian was not the most explosive rider, his victorious attack was more of an ambush. This will be difficult for Pogacar on Saturday, as everyone knows his strength.

Photo: picture alliance/dpa/Belga / Jasper Jacobs2023 solo winner at Milan-San Remo: Mathieu van der Poel

The situation is somewhat different for van der Poel. The reigning road world champion is more explosive than Pogacar, which made the difference last year, and has not yet exposed himself as much as his big rival. Milan-San Remo is the first road race that the Alpecin-Deceuninck pro will contest in 2024 - his form is therefore a black box for the competition. Van der Poel took a similar approach in 2022, when he also competed in Milan without having raced before. In the end, he finished third.

Mads Pedersen and Alberto Bettiol in top form

Photo: picture alliance / Roth / CVMads Pedersen in top form at Paris-Nice

Who can jeopardise these two exceptional talents? One of the candidates is Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek). The Dane already has six victories to his name this year, only his compatriot Jonas Vingegaard (7) has more. Pedersen is in the form of his life. It was particularly impressive to see at Paris-Nice how well the sprint-strong all-rounder performed on the climbs. Good omens to keep up with the best on the Poggio - or at least to go into the final kilometres with only a small gap.

Similarly strong as Pedersen is Alberto Bettiol (EF Education EasyPost). A week ago, the Italian would only have received a maximum of one star in our list of favourites, but his performance at Milan-Turin on Wednesday catapulted him into other spheres. With 30 kilometres to go, the 30-year-old took the lead and celebrated a solo victory. The winner of the 2019 Tour of Flanders is very explosive in his attack and, after his hussar ride during the week, is also one of the top favourites on Saturday.

Photo: picture alliance / ZUMAPRESS.com / Fabio FerrariAero helmet to victory: Alberto Bettiol at Milan-Turin

Matej Mohoric, Filippo Ganna and Thomas Pidcock

Matej Mohoric (Bahrain-Victorious) receives one star less. The Slovenian went down in the history books of cycling in 2022 when he won the descent from the Poggio left the competition behind with a lowerable seat post. The 29-year-old is in good form (5th at Strade Bianche). In order to win in San Remo, however, he will probably have to come up with a similarly daring tactic as two years ago.

We also give three stars to the Ineos-Grenadiers duo Filippo Ganna and Thomas Pidcock. Ganna surprised everyone last year with a strong performance in San Remo, when he stuck to Pogacar's wheel on the Poggio and beat the Slovenian and Wout van Aert in the sprint for second place a little later. The world hour record holder comes to the Ligurian coast with second place in the opening time trial of Tirreno-Adriatico as proof of his form and should be one to watch in a sprint of a smaller group.

Photo: Getty Images/Tim De WaeleFilippo Ganna (front) was second at Milan-San Remo in 2023 - ahead of Wout van Aert and Tadej Pogacar

Is Thomas Pidcock going on the offensive?

This also applies to Thomas Pidcock. The British All-rounder has given the impression so far this season that he is still a few per cent short of top form. If he has that on Saturday, he should be able to keep up with Poggio or even go on the offensive himself.

>> What makes Thomas Pidcock tick

In 2022, Biniam Girmay managed to win Gent-Wevelgem and the Giro d'Italia with a one-day victory. after shooting a Prosecco cork into his eye - his big breakthrough. After a mixed 2023 season, the man from Eritrea is back in full force this spring. He recently showed this with his strong performances at Tirreno-Adriatico. Although he sometimes went over the top in the sprints there and was penalised for this on the second stage. In a sprint of a small group on Saturday, the team-mate of the German Georg Zimmermann should be a force to be reckoned with.

Photo: picture alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS / Olivier MatthysBiniam Girmay celebrated his greatest success to date at Gent-Wevelgem 2022

What does Visma | Lease a Bike do without Wout van Aert?

One of the big questions at Milan-San Remo 2024 is: How will Visma | Lease a Bike replace Wout van Aert? The Belgian superstar won the "Classicissima" in 2020, but is skipping it this year to focus fully on the cobblestone races in Belgium and France. The Dutch team has two good options: Christophe Laporte for the sprint of a small group or an attack on the Poggio and Olav Kooij for the classic sprint of a large group, but this is an unlikely scenario.

Photo: picture alliance / Roth / CVJonathan Milan was very strong at Tirreno-Adriatico recently

Speaking of sprinters: Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), who won two stages of the Tirreno-Adriatico in impressive style, deserves a special mention. With his 84 kilos, however, he will probably find it difficult to follow the attacks on the Poggio. Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) is also one of these fast men, but will probably only be plan B in his team if van der Poel has a problem. UAE Team Emirates is likely to have similar roles for Marc Hirschi, Tim Wellens or Isaac del Toro if Pogacar doesn't work out.

Former Milan-San Remo winner a candidate again

Photo: picture alliance / dpa / Luca ZennaroAlexander Kristoff won Milan-San Remo in 2014

With Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X Mobility), we have added another former winner of the race to our list. Ten years ago, the now 36-year-old won in San Remo. With second place on the final stage of Tirreno-Adriatico, the experienced rider made people sit up and take notice. The tenacious Norwegian is a candidate to watch out for in the sprint of a larger group. Just like Michael Matthews (Team Jayco-AlUla). The Australian was third at Milan-San Remo in 2015 and 2020. And what about 2024? Well, at 33, Matthews is also getting a bit long in the tooth. But after the retirement of Caleb Ewan, he is at least the unrestricted captain of his team.

Last but not least, an outsider tip: Maxim van Gils (Lotto-Dstny). The 24-year-old Belgian is one of the discoveries of the season. With victory in the individual time trial of the Ruta del Sol, which was reduced to one day, and above all third place at Strade Bianche, when he only had to let Toms Skujins (Lidl-Trek) go on the final ramp in Siena.

The Germans at Milan-San Remo

Photo: Getty Images/Dario BelingheriMarius Mayrhofer finished second at the Trofeo Pollenca on Mallorca in 2024, among others

With Nico Denz (Bora-Hansgrohe), Simon Geschke (Cofidis), Jonas Rutsch (EF Education EasyPost), Georg Zimmermann (Intermarche-Wanty), Nikias Arndt (Bahrain-Victorious), Alexander Krieger and Marius Mayrhofer (both Tudor Pro Cycling Team) there are only seven German riders on the start list.

None of them are likely to fight for victory. Mayrhofer should have the best chance of a good result. The 23-year-old is in good form, but a place in the top 15 should be the ultimate goal.