The Tour de France thrives on its myths, and hardly any other place epitomises drama, twists and legendary duels quite like Alpe d’Huez. When the famous mountain range is tackled on stages 19 and 20, fans traditionally expect the overall classification to be decided there. However, this year there are signs that this moment will come during the Tour de France might well have fallen much earlier.
Pogačar in impressive form ahead of the Tour de France
Tadej Pogačar is in better form than ever before. The Slovenian currently appears to be in such fine form that even his biggest rivals are facing enormous problems. Jonas Vingegaard in particular – arguably his fiercest rival in recent years – does not currently seem to have what it takes to keep up consistently.
Pogačar had already made his mark early on last year when he built up a lead over Vingegaard following the individual time trial on Stage 5. This scenario could well repeat itself in a similar, perhaps even more decisive, form.
Early key stages in the Tour de France
The tour gets off to a challenging start: the gruelling team time trial in Barcelona creates the first gaps early on. But what is likely to be the decisive first real test comes as early as Stage 6, with the Col du Tourmalet.
- 17.1-kilometre climb
- 7.3 per cent average gradient
A classic that is mercilessly selective. The final climb, stretching over 18.7 kilometres with an average gradient of 3.7 per cent, could set the stage for a solo breakaway by Tadej Pogačar and offers scope for tactical manoeuvres as well as further time losses. Here, gaps of not just seconds but minutes could open up. Should Pogačar capitalise on his current dominance here, he could build up a comfortable lead early on.
The Plateau de Solaison and the time trial as a catalyst
The second major turning point looms as the race progresses. Stage 15 of the Tour de France, to the Plateau de Solaison, and the subsequent time trial on Lake Geneva offer further opportunities to widen the time gaps. This combination is ideally suited to massively extending existing gaps in the general classification. Pogačar, in particular, is regarded as one of the most well-rounded riders in the field, both in the high mountains and in time trials. A lead in the mid-single-digit minute range therefore seems entirely realistic. Such a gap would fundamentally alter the dynamics of the final week of the Tour.
Alpe d’Huez: Decisive stage or encore?
Officially, the focus remains on Stages 19 and 20 around Alpe d’Huez. But the question begs to be asked: will the general classification even still be up for grabs by that point? Of course, the final decision on the Tour winner will only be made there. But the real decision could well have been made long before then. Should Pogačar be holding a clear lead by then, the iconic climbs would become more of a stage for attacks with little prospect of success in the general classification. The stages would not lose their significance, but they would certainly change in character.
New opportunities for stage winners
A general classification decided early on in the Tour de France opens up new possibilities. This would be particularly welcome news for classic climbers, as they might well have a genuine chance of winning a stage. Take, for example, Valentin Paret-Peintre’s spectacular victory on Mont Ventoux in 2025 – a prime example of how opportunities arise when the big favourites are primarily focused on the general classification. At Alpe d’Huez, too, riders other than Pogačar or Vingegaard could then emerge victorious.
Leon Weidner
Working student
