For many fans, Paris-Roubaix is the Superbowl of cycling, the most important one-day race or - as many call it - "The Queen of the Classics". The Tour of Flanders last weekend has already provided a taste of what Paris-Roubaix could be like. However, the race in northern France differs significantly from the one in Belgium: there are no climbs worth mentioning (so-called Hellingen) and the cobblestones are much rougher than those in Flanders.
This means that the favourites are more or less the usual suspects, but a few other specialists have been added and the weighting has changed. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates), the winner of the Tour of Flanders, will not be at the start. This means that his two biggest rivals Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) in the role of the top contenders for victory. TOUR ranks the favourites according to stars. The more stars a rider receives, the higher he is rated*.
The TOUR favourites for Paris-Roubaix at a glance
***** Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert
**** Filippo Ganna, Stefan Küng, Mads Pedersen
*** Dylan van Baarle, Christophe Laporte, Nils Politt, Kasper Asgreen
** Matej Mohoric
* Yves Lampaert, Florian Senechal, John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff, Jasper Stuyven, Florian Vermeersch, Arnaud De Lie, Sep Vanmarcke, Ivan Garcia
***** Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
Last Sunday, the Dutchman was the one who was able to hold off Pogacar the longest. In the absence of the two-time Tour de France winner, he is therefore the hottest contender for the big cobblestone. However, Paris-Roubaix has not been van der Poel's great love in the past. The Alpecin pro finished third in the 2021 edition, where the riders reached the finish line with mud-smeared faces. Last year he finished ninth.
***** Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma)
Van Aert has also not been able to fully convince at Paris-Roubaix in the past. His best result is 2nd place in 2022, when he won the sprint of the first chasing group behind Dylan van Baarle. Van Aert was seventh in 2021, 22nd in 2019 and 13th in 2018. After the disappointment of fourth place at the Tour of Flanders, the pressure on the Belgian at Paris-Roubaix is enormous. Based purely on their abilities, he and van der Poel should be stronger than the rest of the peloton. Christophe Laporte and last year's winner van Baarle offer his team Jumbo-Visma further options for victory.
**** Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers)
At 1.93 metres and 83 kilograms, the time trial specialist and hourly world record holder is made for Paris-Roubaix. He has "a big engine", as they say in cycling jargon. Roughly speaking, this means that a rider can ride at a high speed over long distances. This is exactly what is required at Paris-Roubaix. Ganna has made the cobblestone race in northern France the main goal of his Classics campaign and has skipped the Tour of Flanders. At Milan-San Remo, the Italian proved with second place that he can do more than just time trial. In terms of steering skills and acceleration, he has to make concessions to van der Poel and van Aert. That's why he gets one star less.
**** Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ)
The Swiss rider has a similar "big engine" to Ganna and finished third on the podium in Roubaix last year. Sixth place at the Tour of Flanders is evidence of the time trial and classics specialist's good form. If he wants to beat van der Poel and van Aert, he will have to outsprint them, as it will be difficult for Küng against these two exceptional riders in the sprint.
**** Mads Pedersen (Trek-Segafredo)
The Danish sprinter, who finished third in the Tour of Flanders, is also in good form. There, he showed tactical skill when he caught the group that occasionally pulled out a large lead on the other favourites and from which Pedersen was later able to break away again. It wasn't until the Oude Kwaremont that the Dane was literally overrun by Pogacar, but secured a podium place in the sprint of the chasing group. This tenacity could also land him at the front in Paris-Roubaix.
*** Dylan van Baarle (Jumbo-Visma)
The defending champion would normally be rated even higher, but there are several question marks behind van Baarle. The Dutchman abandoned first at Tirreno-Adriatico and then also at E3 Harelbeke after a crash. In addition, he does not have the leading role in his team. Van Baarle is one of several options for Jumbo-Visma, but probably not at the performance level of Wout van Aert.
*** Christophe Laporte (Jumbo-Visma)
Just like van Baarle, Laporte is dependent on the tactics of his team Jumbo-Visma. If he gets a free ride, the winner of Gent-Wevelgem and Quer durch Flandern is a candidate for victory. However, it is more likely that he will have to put his own ambitions on hold.
*** Nils Politt (Bora-Hansgrohe)
The captain of Bora-Hansgrohe only received one star from TOUR for the Tour of Flanders, here it has two more. Why? Paris-Roubaix doesn't have any climbs and suits the German classics specialist much better than the Ronde. In 2019, Politt already sniffed victory with second place. His handicap: The rider from Cologne is too often in the wrong place at the wrong time, such as at the Tour of Flanders, when the group of the day around Mads Pedersen rode away without Politt. The 29-year-old has a top placing at Paris-Roubaix up his sleeve. However, he will need a little more luck and skill than last time.
*** Kasper Asgreen (Soudal - Quick Step)
In the past, Soudal - Quick Step has often dominated Paris-Roubaix at will. This year, the Belgians will start as outsiders. The greatest hope is Kasper Asgreen. The Dane showed improving form at the Tour of Flanders and at least scored a goal of honour for Patrick Lefevere's team with seventh place. With a similarly clever riding style, an even better result is possible in Roubaix.
** Matej Mohoric (Bahrain-Victorious)
The Slovenian was already fifth at Paris-Roubaix in 2022 and would therefore be a candidate for the podium. However, after crashes at Gent-Wevelgem and the Tour of Flanders, there is a question mark over his physical condition.
* Yves Lampaert (Soudal - Quick Step)
The Belgian is always a force to be reckoned with at Paris-Roubaix. As third in 2019 and fifth in 2021, Lampaert knows how to finish at the front in this classic. However, the 31-year-old from Izegem does not have the same pressure on the pedals as he did two years ago.
* Florian Senechal (Soudal - Quick Step)
The French road champion has already finished in the top 10 at Paris-Roubaix but, like Lampaert, is lagging behind his form. As a result, he is likely to finish in the top ten again this year.
* John Degenkolb (Team DSM)
The days when the German was named as one of the top favourites for Paris-Roubaix are over. But to write him off completely would also be wrong. 19th place at the Tour of Flanders is proof of his good form. What's more, the 34-year-old should be particularly motivated for Paris-Roubaix, which he won in 2015. With a bit of racing luck and tactical cleverness, a top result is still possible for him.
* Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X Pro Cycling Team)
Like Degenkolb, Kristoff has already passed the peak of his career at the age of 35. However, the switch to Uno-X Pro Cycling in his home country of Norway seems to have given him renewed vigour. His stage win at the Tour of the Algarve in February was à la bonne heure. And Kristoff still has a score to settle with Paris-Roubaix. His best result in twelve starts was ninth place in 2013.
* Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo)
Trek-Segafredo's second option after Mads Pedersen. On good days, such as Milan-San Remo 2021, Stuyven can even win monuments. There is currently not much to suggest a similar coup next Sunday. Tenth place at the Classicissima and Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne are the Belgian's best results in 2023.
* Florian Vermeersch (Lotto-Dstny)
The Belgian was a completely surprising second at Paris-Roubaix in 2021 and showed that he is in good form with twelfth place at the Tour of Flanders last Sunday. The 24-year-old can go for it without much pressure and is good for another surprise.
* Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Dstny)
Vermeersch's 21-year-old team-mate is one of the biggest talents in professional cycling, but after a brilliant start to the season he was recently brought back down to earth. At Milan-San Remo, De Lie had to realise that he was not yet ready for the front in races longer than 200 kilometres. The young Belgian should use his first Paris-Roubaix to gain experience. Perhaps a top 10 result will come out of it.
* Sep Vanmarcke (Israel-Premier Tech)
The Belgian was second at Paris-Roubaix in 2013. Ten years later, at the age of 34, it might not be enough for the podium, but on a great day Vanmarcke can achieve a top result, as he recently proved with third place at Gent-Wevelgem.
* Ivan Garcia Cortina (Movistar)
A Spaniard at Paris-Roubaix? Quite an unusual combination. However, Garcia Cortina is one of the few riders from the Iberian peninsula who is doing well in the cobblestone races. The cycling world was astonished when he and his team-mate Matteo Jorgenson from the USA finished fourth and fifth at the E3 Harelbeke. The Spaniard should therefore at least be considered an outsider on Sunday.
* Our favourites analysis was carried out on Thursday, 06.04.. If a rider is not at the start for any reason, this is not taken into account here.
