The Tour of Flanders 2023 casts its shadow ahead. In the run-up to the event, the favourites have already been able to show their mettle in some Flemish classics such as E3 Harelbeke, Ghent-Wevelgem or Across Flanders shown. A two-tier society has crystallised in the process. Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) and Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) are in a league of their own. However, there are a few riders who could throw a spanner in the works of the trio on an exceptional day at the Tour of Flanders 2023. The favourites in the analysis. TOUR ranks them by stars. The more stars a rider gets, the higher he is rated.
The TOUR favourites for the Tour of Flanders 2023 at a glance
***** Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert, Tadej Pogacar
**** Christophe Laporte, Tom Pidcock
*** Matej Mohoric, Tiesj Benoot, Valentin Madouas, Mads Pedersen, Julian Alaphilippe
** Stefan Küng, Sören Kragh Andersen, Alexander Kristoff
* Nils Politt, Kasper Asgreen, Sep Vanmarcke, Biniam Girmay, Neilson Powless, Jasper Stuyven, Matteo Jorgenson, Ivan Garcia Cortina, Tim Wellens, Michael Matthews
***** Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
After a mediocre start to the season for his team Alpecin-Deceuninck, van der Poel delivered a gala performance at Milan-San Remo and triumphed at the Classicissima. His two big rivals on Sunday will also be Wout van Aert and Tadej Pogacar. The Dutchman is stronger sprinter than Pogacar and was able to follow the Slovenian on the Oude Kwaremont at the E3 Prijs, while van Aert had problems in the meantime. Although van der Poel lost out to van Aert in the sprint, he can be considered similarly strong, as he was able to win the Cyclocross World Championship van der Poel recently defeated van Aert in a two-man sprint. In addition, with two victories at the Ronde in the cross (2020 and 2022), there is less pressure on van der Poel's shoulders.
***** Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma)
Van der Poel's arch-rival is in impressive form, as he proved with his victory at the E3 Saxo Classic and two days later at Gent-Wevelgem, when he left first place to Christophe Laporte. The man from Herentals also has the strongest team on his side, despite the absence of Paris-Roubaix winner Dylan van Baarle, which means he can put the competition under pressure. However, there are one or two arguments against his victory. As the local hero, Van Aert has the greatest pressure. Although his palmares is already impressive, he has not yet won the Tour of Flanders or Paris-Roubaix. The Belgian can win in the sprint, but has to organise the race offensively with his team.
***** Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates)
In 2022, Pogacar was already on the verge of winning the Tour of Flanders - finishing in fourth place. On the final ascent of the Paterberg, only the eventual winner van der Poel was able to follow him with great difficulty. Pogacar's handicap: he is not as strong as van Aert and van der Poel in the sprint. The Slovenian has to outsprint his two rivals. This is only possible if the race is as hard as possible early on. That's why it's not unlikely that Pogacar will once again try to get as far away from the finish as possible.
**** Christophe Laporte (Jumbo-Visma)
Team Jumbo-Visma's second trump card. Laporte won Gent-Wevelgem and the Tour of Flanders in the run-up to the Tour of Flanders. In terms of performance, the Frenchman is close to van der Poel, van Aert and Pogacar. He can probably only win the Ronde if it becomes tactical and he rides away with a group or his boss van Aert has a problem.
**** Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers)
The 23-year-old Briton is one of the All-rounder in cycling and doesn't have to hide from van der Poel, van Aert or Pogacar when in top form. However, there is a question mark behind this. Although Pidcock has already won Strade Bianche but suffered a concussion in a crash at Tirreno-Adriatico. His comeback at Quer durch Flandern was promising with eleventh place. For Sunday, he's a real surprise bag.
*** Matej Mohoric (Bahrain-Victorious)
The Slovenian has had a good classics campaign so far: 21st at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, 3rd at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, 6th at Strade Bianche, 8th at Milan-San Remo and 7th at E3 Harelbeke. Mohoric is tactically clever, knows when to go for it, but always lacks a few per cent to be at the front. He also crashed in the final of Gent-Wevelgem, so it remains to be seen whether that will affect him at the Ronde.
*** Tiesj Benoot (Jumbo-Visma)
The third rider from Jumbo-Visma who could end up at the front in terms of pure class. Benoot's situation is similar to that of Laporte. He will most likely have to work for his boss van Aert. He can only achieve a top position if he rides away with an early group and it arrives.
*** Valentin Madouas (Groupama-FDJ)
The Frenchman often flies under the radar. Yet he was 3rd in the Tour of Flanders in 2022 and 2nd in Strade Bianche this year. Together with Stefan Küng, he forms Groupama-FDJ a powerful tandem. Should one of the three top favourites weaken, Madouas can be expected to finish on the podium again.
*** Mads Pedersen (Trek-Segafredo)
This year, the 2019 Road World Champion was 6th at Milan-San Remo, 14th at E3 Harelbeke, 5th at Gent-Wevelgem and 5th at Quer durch Flandern. Similar to Mohoric, however, it is not (yet) enough for the podium. Pedersen's advantage is his sprinting ability. If a larger group arrives, it will be difficult to beat the Dane.
*** Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal - Quick Step)
A year ago, Alaphilippe would have been mentioned in the same breath as van der Poel, van Aert and Pogacar. That's different now. The 30-year-old is still lagging behind his top form after his crashes in 2022. What's more, his team Soudal - Quick Step under massive pressure. Patrick Lefevere's team once dominated the Flemish classics at will, but are now without a chance. Former world champion Alaphilippe is currently the best option the Belgians have on Sunday. He already showed good signs during the week at Quer durch Flandern, but a podium finish is rather unlikely.
** Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ)
The Swiss time trial specialist is always a force to be reckoned with in such a tough race as the Tour of Flanders. After sixth place at the E3 Harelbeke, it was not enough for top results at Gent-Wevelgem and Quer durch Flandern. That should change again on Sunday.
** Sören Kragh Andersen (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
After some initial difficulties, the Danish newcomer to Alpecin-Deceuninck has developed into a genuine backup option for van der Poel. Fifth place at Milan-San Remo and 9th place at E3 mean that he is at least among the favourites - even if he will probably have to work for van der Poel.
** Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X Pro Cycling Team)
The 35-year-old Norwegian is free to drive off. He no longer has to prove anything to anyone. After all, he has already won the Ronde in 2015 and has claimed numerous other major victories. His two great strengths: he knows how to read a race and he is extremely tough. If the oldie rides away with a group early on, a top result is possible.
* Nils Politt (Bora-Hansgrohe)
From a German perspective, the rider from Cologne is the most promising option for a good position in the 2023 Tour of Flanders. The German champion has good form. However, it is currently not enough to be right at the front. In addition, he is more likely to Paris-Roubaix which suits the classics specialist much better. A top 10 place at the Ronde is probably the maximum for Politt.
* Kasper Asgreen (Soudal - Quick Step)
The Dane is the second option for Soudal - Quick Step. The same applies to him as to Alaphilippe. He's chasing his form. The 2021 Tour of Flanders winner would have to ride away with an early group and hope that it comes through to achieve a top result.
* Sep Vanmarcke (Israel-Premier Tech)
At the age of 34, the Belgian rider is once again building on his best times. The man from Kortrijk finished a surprising third at Gent-Wevelgem and if everything goes to plan, he could finish in the top 10 here too.
* Biniam Girmay (Intermarche-Circus-Wanty)
With his success at Gent-Wevelgem and his stage win at the Giro d'Italia, Girmay was one of the newcomers of 2022, but this year his form is probably not good enough to ride at the front.
* Neilson Powless (EF Education EasyPost)
The US-American was not previously known as a specialist for the Flemish classics, but made people sit up and take notice with third place at Quer durch Flandern and seventh place at Milan-San Remo. The 26-year-old can ride freely at the Ronde and is a candidate for a surprise.
* Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo)
The Belgian is the second card that Trek-Segafredo can play at the Ronde. This year, however, the 2021 Milan-San Remo winner lacks the necessary top results for more than one star.
* Matteo Jorgenson & Ivan Garcia Cortina (Movistar)
Movistar has discovered the Flemish classics for itself. At the E3 Harelbeke, the Spaniards finished fourth and fifth with the US American Jorgenson and his Spanish team-mate Ivan Garcia Cortina. They were always on top of the action and behaved in a tactically clever manner, something that has not always been the case with this team in the past. The Movistar tandem also has the potential to surprise at the Tour of Flanders.
* Tim Wellens (UAE Team Emirates)
In Tadej Pogacar, the Belgian has one of the top favourites in his team. In terms of sheer class, he has the potential for a top result. However, Wellens will only achieve this if Pogacar has a problem or if the Belgian finds himself in a promising position thanks to a tactical manoeuvre.
* Michael Matthews (Team Jayco-AlUla)
The sprinting Australian has already finished sixth at the Ronde in 2019. A similar result would probably be the highest of feelings for him this year.
