Tour de France 2027: Evenepoel’s big chance at overall victory – and why it might not work out after all

Time trials. Back in the days of Jan Ullrich and co., around the turn of the millennium, they were the kingmakers of the Tour de France. It was the norm for the professionals to have to race against the clock twice on their own, covering a total of 100 kilometres, without being able to hide or rest. On top of that, there was usually a team time trial as well – another 60 or 70 kilometres. Tour teams were not put together primarily on the basis of their strength in the mountains, but rather in time trials.

Those days are long gone. From a marketing perspective, there was little to be gained from seeing the same kilometres flash across TV screens time and time again. It was just boring to watch. The aesthetic that some professionals developed on their time-trial bikes – something only for real nerds. That, or something along those lines, was the line taken by Tour organiser A.S.O. until recently whenever the question of the dwindling significance of the race against the clock came up.

Until the route for 2027 is unveiled. On paper, the 114th edition of the Tour de France features 71 predominantly flat kilometres against the clock, spread over two stages. That’s more than at any time since 2012, when there were still nearly 100. Tour director Christian Prudhomme has now explained that the British riders were primarily to blame for this: Bradley Wiggins, Chris Froome, Geraint Thomas – and Tadej Pogacar too. “In the recent past, the best climbers were also the riders who took time off their rivals in the time trials,” said Prudhomme. “It would have made no sense to extend the distance of the time trials, as it was always the same riders anyway (who were successful there).”

Prudhomme’s curious line of reasoning

So it’s all down to the drama, because otherwise the Tour victories would have been even more one-sided. But things look different now. “We’ve got a different sort of rider again,” said the Frenchman. “I’m thinking of Remco Evenepoel. He’s the best time-trialist, but he might lose time on the climbs. Our approach is to balance everything out. Like the fans, we want the battle for the Yellow jersey "see." However, Prudhomme also said: "It’s not about any particular rider."

The contradiction here is easy to spot. If the element of suspense is the decisive factor in favour of more time trials, it can only be Evenpoel. Neither Jonas Vingegaard nor Paul Seixas, Florian Lipowitz, Juan Ayuso, Isaac Del Toro nor any other potential podium contender is otherwise capable of taking time (in any significant measure) off Tadej Pogačar against the clock. Of all the general classification riders, only Evenepoel can do that.

Even if you turn the tables – if the route wasn’t designed for a particular professional, but against one – there’s only one name that comes to mind. And that’s the five-time overall winner, for whom a potential sixth victory is to be made so much more difficult.

Red Bull on the offensive: “We have every reason to aim for yellow”

Either way, with the 2027 route, A.S.O. has certainly laid the groundwork for achieving the aim of not deciding the Tour after the first week, keeping it open for as long as possible, and perhaps even allowing for a different winner once again. That said, this isn’t reflected in the elevation gain alone. On paper, the estimated total of just under 53,500 is actually slightly higher than last year’s figure.

However, the stages are laid out differently to recent editions. There are many undulating stages. And above all: plenty of climbing before the stage finishes. Genuine mountain finishes are rare. In the Alps, there is only Stage 9, finishing at the Grand Colombier, and, to a lesser extent, Stage 11 in Les Saisies. In the Pyrenees, the only other mountain finish is Stage 18 at the Col du Portet, the highest point of this edition at 2,215 metres. The Tourmalet, which also features on this section and, with 5,400 metres of climbing, makes it the undisputed queen stage, is the only true legend on the programme.

Plenty of time trials, fewer (final) mountain stages, perhaps one of the easiest tours of France in recent history – all of this works in Evenepoel’s favour. Like Pogačar, he has not yet commented personally on the route, but is likely to view it favourably. Just like his team.

“Overall, it’s a route that plays to our strengths and gives us every reason to aim for the yellow jersey,” said Zak Dempster, Chief of Sports at Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe, taking a decidedly proactive stance in a statement from the German WorldTeam. “The long individual time trial at the end of the first week offers us a great opportunity to make our mark early on. That could prove decisive with a view to the Alps in the second week. The second individual time trial is another highlight of this route. We welcome the return to longer individual time trials, as this adds another dimension to the race and makes the battle for the yellow jersey even more open and exciting,” he explained.

​What happens if you take on Pogačar?

If it wasn’t already the case, Evenepoel’s by far biggest goal for the coming year has surely been clear since 22 October at the latest. After all, his chance of winning the Tour is unlikely ever to be greater. It is questionable whether A.S.O. will continue to rely on time trials – which are generally considered unattractive – beyond 2027; this is likely to depend on the success of the upcoming race. Moreover, the young competition, including Seixas and Del Toro, is getting stronger every year.

The 2027 Tour won’t be a walk in the park for Evenepoel, though. Because even if the route isn’t exactly tailor-made for Pogačar, that’s by no means to say he won’t come up with a suitable response. It’s quite possible that a mischievous smile flitted across the Slovenian’s face as he watched the route presentation. As if to say: “You want to challenge me? You’ll get what’s coming to you.” The 28-year-old rises to the occasion, as the Tour of Flanders and Milan–San Remo have shown in recent years. These are by no means classic Pogačar terrains. And yet he has prevailed there against the strongest competition.

​Pogačar doesn’t need endless mountains or steep climbs to make the difference – they just make it easier for him. And it’s not as if there won’t be any of them at all during the Tour. They’re just a bit further away from the finish. Then it’ll be time for ‘Solo-Pogi’ and a 90-kilometre ride through the Massif Central on Stage 14, from the Col de la Lusette to Mende. Or even as early as Stage 10. There, the Tour follows parts of the route of the World Championships, which will be held a few weeks later around Sallanches. A little taster on the World Championships’ climb, the Côte de Domancy with a 9.4 per cent gradient over 2,500 metres? Why not. Quite apart from that, it’s equally possible that Pogačar could still improve in the time trial if he’s forced to shift his training focus to that discipline.

A historic sixth Tour victory for Tadej Pogačar is by no means out of the question and is probably still the favourite. Most recently, even Ralph Denk, CEO of Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe, said during a press conference: “If everything goes perfectly for him, it’s currently impossible to beat him in a head-to-head duel.” Nevertheless, the Tour could be more exciting than it has been for a long time.