If you ask the right question, you'll get a good answer. After ten days of the Tour de France, we asked three AI chatbots to analyse the Tour de France podium. predict. ChatGPT, Gemini and co. are language models that cannot look into the future. What the models can do, however, is soak up knowledge on the internet and draw conclusions from it. We made it easy for the GPTs by asking them to orientate themselves on betting odds and the assessments of cycling journalists. All three GPT models correctly predicted the winner of the 2025 Tour de France, Tadej Pogačar. And all three models correctly predicted that Jonas Vingegaard would finish second. However, with the betting odds and the assessments of important cycling media as a guide, this prediction was not too complicated. Pogačar's superiority had been apparent for months and was obvious after the first stages - probably only a bad crash could have stopped the Slovenian. It was also relatively easy to predict the chaser: Vingegaard had emphasised this claim from the start of the Tour. All the AI chatbots were right about the Dane. When it came to third place, however, cycling journalists were just as surprised as the AI. All three models had predicted Remco Evenepoel, who was eliminated early.
Google's Gemini and ChatGPT didn't even have Florian Lipowitz on their radar - he wasn't even mentioned in the extended circle of favourites. The European model Le Chat from Mistral had at least counted Lipowitz among the extended circle of podium contenders: "An up-and-coming rider who impressed at the Critérium du Dauphiné and could be a surprise," was the GPT's verdict.
The response of the language models depends crucially on the prompt or the data or sources provided. Lipowitz's third place has fuelled the euphoria in Germany. Is this also reflected in the assessment of the language models? We asked whether Florian Lipowitz can win the Tour de France in the future and what he and his team need to improve. These are the answers:
Gemini: Tour de France winner Lipowitz?
Florian Lippowitz can win the Tour de France. His third place is a clear indication of his potential.
Areas for improvement
He must continue to develop, especially in the time trial and on the toughest climbs. His consistency over three weeks and his tactical skills in the race can also improve.
Team adjustments
His team needs stronger mountain helpers and an improved race strategy as well as the necessary experience to optimally support a Tour favourite.
ChatGPT: Tour winner Lipowitz?
Forecast
At the age of 23, Florian Lipowitz already has the potential to compete for the Tour victory in the long term. However, the gap of just under 4 minutes to Tadej Pogačar is considerable - a time cushion that he can only make up over several years of continuous development.
Areas for improvement
- Individual time trial: Stabilise top 10 level (currently approx. 1 - 2 min. behind the specialists).
- Mountain consistency: fewer fluctuations in the difficult Alpine stages to avoid losing time.
- Race intelligence/tactics: Gain experience in order to time attacks more precisely and allocate energy more wisely.
Team adjustments
- Stronger mountain aids: Two reliable mountain domestiques that control the pace in the high mountains.
- Time trial set-up: Further focus on aerodynamics and material (frame, helmet, skin suit).
- Clear management structure: Appoint Lipowitz as a permanent co-leader so that he has full backing without internal competition.
Le Chat Mistral Tour de France winner Lipowitz?
Florian Lippowitz has the potential to win the Tour de France in the future. However, he would need to improve his stamina in order to remain consistently strong in the decisive stages. Tactical errors should be minimised and the team strategy could be better adapted to critical race moments. With more experience and these adjustments, he could significantly increase his chances.
ConclusionImprovements in the time trial, more helpers for the mountains and tactical improvements - ChatGPT in particular summarised this well. Cycling media have pointed out exactly these points on the internet. As cycling experts, we know that you can't plan a Tour victory. In France, people have been dreaming of a French Tour victory for decades. The new German euphoria surrounding Lipowitz is nice - but there is still a long way to go before a Tour de France victory. Many teams and cyclists have worked hard for this dream and still never achieved it.
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Kristian Bauer
Editor
