From 1 to 9 August, the women will be competing for the Yellow Jersey at the Tour de France. Rarely have there been so many top female riders with a chance of overall victory in the Tour de France. These are the favourites.
The 2026 Tour de France Femmes promises to be a closely fought battle for the Yellow Jersey. From 1 to 9 August, the race will cover nine stages from Lausanne to Nice. A 21-kilometre individual time trial, the mountain finish at Mont Ventoux and the gruelling finale over the Col d’Èze will decide who ultimately wins the yellow jersey.
The Route of the 2026 Tour de France Femmes It calls for versatile riders. This year, time-trial skills will be just as decisive in determining victory or defeat as climbing ability. Here are the favourites for the most important victory of the year: the overall classification of the Tour de France.
The Tour favourites, ranked by stars*
***** Demi Vollering
**** Pauline Ferrand-Prévot, Anna van der Breggen
*** Paula Blasi, Elisa Longo Borghini, Antonia Niedermaier
** Kasia Niewiadoma, Marlen Reusser, Cédrine Kerbaol
* Juliette Berthet, Yara Kastelijn, Dominika Włodarczyk, Urška Žigart, Femke de Vries, Niamh Fisher-Black, Puck Pieterse, Monica Trinca Colonel
* The more stars a rider receives, the higher her chances are considered to be
Demi Vollering – The hot favourite
Demi Vollering heads into the Tour with the strongest record of the season. In 2026, the Dutch rider won, amongst others, the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, the Tour of Flanders, the Flèche Wallonne and Liège–Bastogne–Liège. In June, she also celebrated her first overall victory at the Giro d’Italia Women.
Vollering can ride fast on long climbs, is quick in the final stretch when riding in small groups, and is competitive in time trials. On Mont Ventoux in particular, she is likely to try to outpace her rivals with a high pace and a late attack. Having had to settle for second place last year, it looks as though Vollering is unbeatable once again this time round.
FDJ United-Suez is heavily reliant on its captain. Juliette Berthet and Évita Muzic are set to support her in the mountains, whilst the German rider Franziska Koch could play a key role on the fast-paced, undulating stages. The team will likely try to control the race right up to Ventoux.
Pauline Ferrand-Prévot – defending champion
The defending champion won the 2025 Tour de France and remains one of Vollering’s biggest rivals. Although her break from racing since early May has raised a few questions, it may also be part of a targeted preparation programme. Her approach of treating the Vuelta a España merely as “training” also seems rather unusual.
Ferrand-Prévot’s chances improve if she can ride a controlled race. In the time trial, she must minimise the gap to Vollering and, above all, Reusser. On Mont Ventoux, the aim will be to stay with Vollering for as long as possible and wait for the right moment to attack. It’s not impossible; we saw exactly this scenario play out last year.
The Visma | Lease a Bike team, too, is fully focused on the team’s title contender. For her, the Yellow Jersey is all that matters. This is evident from her exceptional preparation and the clear emphasis placed on the race this season. Hardly any other rider focuses so intently on the Tour de France.
Anna van der Breggen – in top form
Since returning to the peloton, she has improved month by month since last year and has recently been performing at a level reminiscent of her best years. At the Giro d’Italia Women, if not before, the former Olympic and world champion showed that, even at the age of 36, she can still keep up with the strongest stage racers. Her time trial victory, with a lead of over a minute over Reusser, left the cycling world holding its breath for a moment.
Her greatest strengths lie in her racing intelligence and her versatility. Van der Breggen consistently climbs at the highest level, delivers strong time trials, and is in the right position at the right moment. However, to secure the overall victory, everything will need to come together for her right at the end of the tour. Van der Breggen is considered slightly weaker than Vollering and Ferrand-Prévot, particularly on the long climbs.
Paula Blasi – Suddenly a joint favourite
Paula Blasi has been one of the surprise packages in women’s cycling this season. The young Spaniard impressed with consistent performances in the mountains and demonstrated on several occasions that she can hold her own against established stage racers. Although she still lacks experience in the Tour de France, the pace of her development makes her a serious contender for the podium.
With her Victory in the Tour of Spain She has shown everyone what she is capable of. Her best chances lie in an attacking race strategy. Blasi thrives on tough mountain stages and could prove particularly dangerous if the favourites focus too much on each other. Although she is likely to lose time in the time trial, she has the potential to make up at least some of that deficit on Mont Ventoux. A bold attack, which none of the established top riders follow up on, could put Blasi in a strong position.
However, she is not the team captain; a co-captaincy would be a possibility...
Elisa Longo Borghini – The Experienced One
Elisa Longo Borghini has been one of the most consistent stage racers in the peloton for years. Alongside Blasi, the Italian is the second favourite from the UAE Team. Her main strength lies in her consistency. Longo Borghini rarely has a completely off day and is capable of competing at the front on almost any terrain. She is not one of the absolute specialists in time trials, but she usually loses only a limited amount of time there.
Longo Borghini is one of the smartest riders in the peloton and knows exactly how to pick up seconds without having to rely on major attacks. She’ll probably need several perfect days to win the Tour, but she has everything it takes to make the podium. It will be interesting to see what her role within the team will be and whether she’ll be the sole team captain. Blasi could well challenge her for that role.
Antonia Niedermaier – Germany’s hope
Antonia Niedermaier heads into this Tour de France as arguably Germany’s best hope for a top result. The former ski mountaineer has developed over recent years into one of the most talented stage racers of her generation. Need proof? A second place this year in the Giro d’Italia, ahead of Van der Breggen and Longo Borghini. That’s all you need to know!
Just as with Team UAE ADQ, the question arises with Canyon//Sram as to which rider is the team captain. Alongside Niedermaier, the German team’s line-up includes Kasia Niewiadoma, the 2024 Tour winner. However, she is not having the best season of her career.
Kasia Niewiadoma – Severe setbacks
Kasia Niewiadoma-Phinney has finished on the podium in every edition of the modern Tour de France Femmes and won the 2024 race. Niedermaier’s team-mate is consistently strong, but the Polish rider has been struggling somewhat this season. After her crash at Milan–San Remo, she never really found her rhythm; her eighth place at the Vuelta a España, in a field without the major favourites, is not satisfactory.
However, with Antonia Niedermaier as their second strong player, the team can put their opponents under tactical pressure. This could give one of the two professionals a decisive advantage, although Niewiadoma is currently trailing behind her German team-mate.
Marlen Reusser – Swiss movement
Marlen Reusser is the strongest time-trialist among the favourites. The Swiss rider is world champion in this discipline and is capable of building up significant leads even on slightly uphill courses. The time trial to Dijon is therefore her best chance to gain time on Vollering and Ferrand-Prévot. At the Giro d’Italia, she surprisingly lost the gruelling mountain time trial and was visibly disappointed with her pacing afterwards. However, if she gets her pacing right, no other rider can stop her. If she has a perfect day, she could reach Mont Ventoux with a comfortable lead.
There, however, she will have to hold her own against the stronger climbers. Her improved climbing ability makes her a serious contender for the general classification, but she will find it tough on the steep, long climbs against Vollering, Ferrand-Prévot and the rest.
Cédrine Kerbaol – The Unpredictable One
Cédrine Kerbaol is a real wild card. Sometimes one of her daring attacks pays off and she finds herself at the top of the podium; on other days, she fizzles out on the climb after just a few kilometres. How will she fare in the Tour? It’s almost impossible to predict.
Compared to the top favourites, she lacks the consistency needed for the really big high-mountain stages. The Mont Ventoux in particular will show whether she can keep the gap to Vollering, Ferrand-Prévot or van der Breggen within reasonable limits. A Tour victory would be a huge surprise, but a place in the top ten is almost a must, whilst with everything going perfectly, even a top-five finish seems possible.
The underdogs – chances of an upset
The list of underdogs is long. The great thing about a long stage race is that, in the end, anything can happen. Although the chances for these riders are very slim, there is still a possibility they could win the Tour.
Juliette Berthet, Dominika Włodarczyk and Femke de Vries are primarily joining the race to support their respective team captains. Berthet is likely to provide support mainly to Demi Vollering in the mountains, whilst Włodarczyk and de Vries will also play key roles in their teams’ bid for the yellow jersey. However, should their team leaders lose time or be forced to withdraw, they could suddenly find themselves in the spotlight of the general classification.
Yara Kastelijn, Urška Žigart, Niamh Fisher-Black, Puck Pieterse and Monica Trinca Colonel, on the other hand, are their teams’ most promising general classification contenders. They have the ability to keep up consistently in gruelling stage races, but do not quite reach the level of the top favourites. It is likely to be particularly difficult on the longest climbs to keep up with the attacks from Vollering, Ferrand-Prévot, van der Breggen and the like.
Nevertheless, all five have the potential to achieve a strong overall result. A place in the top ten seems a realistic prospect for several of these riders; with a perfect race, even a top-five finish cannot be ruled out. Whilst they are clear underdogs for the overall victory, at the end of the day, a cycle race has yet to be ridden.
TOUR Forecast
- Top favourite: Demi Vollering
- Toughest rival: Pauline Ferrand-Prévot
- Best female time trialist: Marlen Reusser
- Most dangerous underdog: Antonia Niedermaier
- A crucial stage: Summit finish at Mont Ventoux
Leon Weidner
Editor