Tour de France 2023 - Stage 15: Lets Gets les Portes du Soleil - Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc | 179 kilometres
The third mountain stage in a row is once again breakaway terrain. There are countless climbs to climb, making the race confusing. The battle for the overall classification is only likely to become an issue on the final climb to Le Bettex. This begins with a ramp that rises up to 17 per cent directly out of the valley. The 237 metre climb first takes the riders up the Cote des Amerands before a short intermediate descent leads to the foot of the actual final climb of the 15th stage of the Tour de France 2023. The bosses are likely to be relatively fresh and will be banging up the steep section on the back wheels of their helpers. As the stage progresses, we expect the front to gradually thin out further until Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard & Co. are among themselves. Whether breakaways will be able to ride for the stage win will depend on their time cushion. The GC riders will need around 26 minutes for the entire climb and will presumably be four minutes faster than any breakaway riders who can tackle the climb without breaking.
Attacks by the GC riders will probably only be launched in the last three and a half kilometres, when the climb becomes steeper again. Massive changes in the overall standings are not to be expected, as the route to the finish is not far away.
Tour de France 2023: Situation at the top can quickly change
But this is the biggest cycling race in the world and it is not entirely predictable. Crashes, hunger pangs, surprising coalitions - the Tour de France 2023 can take a completely different course than expected. And given the tight time gaps, the situation at the front can change quickly.
Which road bike would be the best in these unpredictable conditions? An all-rounder like the Specialized Tarmac, which isn't at the front in any discipline but is good everywhere? Or is the stage predestined for particularly light bikes without aero qualities? Or is there a scenario in which the aero bike is even faster? We simulate the entire stage to answer this question.
Number of the day: 6:54 minutes
The simulation shows that an aero set-up would once again lead to the fastest overall riding time on this mountain stage. Calculated over the entire route, a runaway would be 6:54 minutes faster on the Canyon Aeroad than on the Bianchi Specialissima, which is 300 grams lighter.
Lightweight bikes have the potential to offer a small advantage in attacks on particularly steep terrain, such as the ramp at the start of the final climb. It is interesting to note that even the superstars in the field predominantly ride bikes that are heavier than the minimum weight of 6.8 kilograms stipulated by the UCI.
The (almost) complete field at a glance
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in some details. Of course, we have not yet been able to analyse last-minute prototypes. Background to the simulation.
Our expert
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes about technical and training topics for TOUR and develops test methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years and they are also used by professional teams.
