Modern professional cycling seems to be becoming increasingly predictable. The big teams control the race, chase down every breakaway and meticulously prepare their captain’s sprint or attack. Yet somehow, this picture has changed once again. Things are different this season. Outliers are becoming increasingly common, even at major WorldTour races. The breakaway is enjoying a bit of a revival.
Outliers: When control becomes a risk
In the past, the top teams could often field several strong support riders solely for the task of keeping up with the leaders. Today, teams field smaller squads in many races. Instead of nine riders, most road races now feature just seven or eight professionals on the start line.
This changes the dynamics significantly. Anyone wishing to take control must sacrifice considerably more resources to do so. At the same time, many teams are reluctant to burn out their domestiques too early in the chase. A fully intact sprint train or a lead-out for the team leader on a mountain climb or at the end of a stage is simply too important. This opens up new opportunities for any breakaway rider.
The teams are increasingly competing against one another
Added to this is a tactical factor: the level of competition within the peloton is higher than ever. Many teams have riders capable of challenging for victory. Consequently, the familiar ‘Who’s going to attack?’ game often ensues.
No team wants to shoulder the entire burden of chasing down the breakaway whilst their rivals conserve their energy. The longer this hesitation continues, the greater the breakaway group’s chances of victory become. What was often once considered a hopeless endeavour thus becomes a genuine option once again.
Power meters make breakaway riders stronger
Paradoxically, breakaway riders also benefit from increasingly precise power management. Thanks to power metres and detailed race analysis, professional cyclists now know exactly how much power they can sustain over a longer period.
As a result, a strong breakaway rider is less likely to burn out through over-ambitious attacks. Instead, they pace themselves better. Many successful breakaway groups now ride almost like a perfectly coordinated time-trial team right up until just before the finish.
Conclusion: The escape is back
Breakaway riders are now benefiting from several developments at once: smaller teams, tactical hesitation in the peloton, precise power management and more attacking race strategies. This makes breakaway groups more dangerous again than they were a few years ago. The big favourites do still win most races. But riders who attack early now have significantly better chances than they did for a long time. The resurgence of breakaway riders is therefore far more than just a coincidence. It is the result of a changing professional cycling scene. For us, this means one thing above all else: more fun watching the races.
Leon Weidner
Editor
