As Tadej Pogačar was forced to withdraw from the Vuelta a España following his crash, it quickly became clear that the race had lost its overwhelming favourite. Yet the consequences extend far beyond the Tour of Spain. It is still unclear whether, and if so when, the Slovenian will be able to return to the peloton this season. This suddenly opens up an opportunity that many of his rivals have been waiting for for years.
After all, in recent years, Pogačar has not only been the world’s dominant stage racer, but has also been virtually unbeatable in one-day races. If the world champion is sidelined for the rest of the autumn season, or returns only on a limited basis, several prestigious races will suddenly become much more open.
Tadej Pogačar’s injury: the Vuelta gets an unexpected winner
The impact is most evident in the Vuelta a España. Pogačar had clearly been in control of the race right up until his crash and had already won three stages. The overall victory would have gone to the Slovenian.
Now, all of a sudden, a completely different rider is on the verge of what could be the greatest success of his career. Whether it’s Enric Mas, Primož Roglič, Richard Carapaz, Felix Gall or one of the other general classification contenders: they all now have opportunities that would have been completely unthinkable just a week ago. Instead of a battle for second place, the Vuelta has become a completely open race.
Great opportunities in Canada
However, the consequences could be even more far-reaching. As early as September, two of the most important one-day races outside Europe – the Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec and the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal – are on the calendar.
The race in Montréal, in particular, would have suited Pogačar’s strengths perfectly. The selective circuit, with its short, explosive climbs, suits riders who combine strong climbing ability with explosive acceleration. That is precisely why the Slovenian was automatically considered one of the top favourites there in the run-up to the race.
Should he be unable to start, the chances for riders such as Remco Evenepoel, Mathieu van der Poel, Tom Pidcock or Marc Hirschi will increase significantly. Numerous puncheurs and classics specialists are also likely to suddenly find themselves dreaming of victory in one of the season’s most prestigious one-day races.
The World Championships without Tadej Pogačar?
The impact on the Road World Championships would be even greater. In title races, Tadej Pogačar is now one of the riders who is closely watched by virtually every rival. He has demonstrated his ability to decide the race well before the finish on numerous occasions in recent years.
If the Slovenian were to be absent, the dynamics of a World Championship race would change fundamentally. Nations such as Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Great Britain would have to completely rethink their tactics. Suddenly, there would no longer be a rider around whom all their strategies revolve.
For stars such as Remco Evenepoel or Mathieu van der Poel, this could be the chance to win another rainbow jersey. At the same time, outsiders would also have a much better chance of getting in on the fight for the medals.
Who will win the Tour of Lombardy?
Perhaps the most exciting prospect, however, is the Tour of Lombardy. The season’s final Monument is almost considered Pogačar’s personal turf. For the past five years, no rival has been able to challenge him for victory there. The Slovenian has won the Italian Monument year after year and is virtually unbeatable on the gruelling climbs around Como.
Should he miss the Tour of Lombardy, the race would be more wide open than it has been for a long time. Riders such as Remco Evenepoel, Juan Ayuso, Tom Pidcock or a in-form Enric Mas would have legitimate hopes of victory. For the first time in years, a different name could top the winners’ list.
A rare window of opportunity
As bitter as the injury is for Tadej Pogačar himself, it is equally significant in terms of how it alters the balance of power in international cycling. For years, his rivals have had to come to terms with the fact that, in many of the world’s biggest races, a rider was on the start line who was often virtually unbeatable.
Now a rare opportunity might present itself. The Vuelta, the World Championships, the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal or the Tour of Lombardy: several of the most important races of the autumn season could suddenly take place without their serial winner.
For many riders, this may well be the best chance they’ve had in years to secure one of the really big wins of their career.
Leon Weidner
Editor