Liège-Bastogne-Liège - the favourites: Pogacar vs. van der Poel - duel of the cycling giants
Thomas Goldmann
· 20.04.2024
Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2024: The most important facts in brief
- Date: 21 April 2024
- Distance: 259 kilometres, 4250 vertical metres (men)
- Key points: Cote de la Redoute, Cote de la Roche-aux-Faucons
- Start: Liège
- Target: Liège
- Last year's winner: Remco Evenepoel
- Record winner: Eddy Merckx (five times)
- To the race report of the women's race
- To the race report of the men's race
- Track, TV broadcast & live stream
- The most famous stories about Liège-Bastogne-Liège
- Mathieu van der Poel on the hunt for the next monument
The TOUR favourites by stars*
* Richard Carapaz, Ben Healy, Tiesj Benoot, Aleksandr Vlasov, Egan Bernal, Alexey Lutsenko
** Mattias Skjelmose, Maxim van Gils, Dylan Teuns, Kevin Vauquelin
*** Mathieu van der Poel, Santiago Buitrago, Stephen Williams
**** Thomas Pidcock
***** Tadej Pogacar
* The more stars a driver receives, the higher they are rated
Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2024: Winning machine Tadej Pogacar at the start
Defending champion Remco Evenepoelwho also won in 2022, will be on the programme this year after his Crash at the Tour of the Basque Country will not start at Liège-Bastogne-Liège. This means that the eagerly awaited duel with Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) was out again - just like last year. Back then it was Pogacar who crashed at the start of the race and suffered a scaphoid fracture. This year, however, the two-time Tour de France winner is back in top form and is the top favourite for Liège-Bastogne-Liège.
There is a lot to be said for a second triumph for the Slovenian after 2021. Pogacar's dominance in the races in which he competed in 2024 reads impressively: victory at Strade Bianche, third place at Milan-San Remo, overall victory and four stage wins at the Tour of Catalunya. Pogacar is ready to put down another big marker in his last race before the Giro d'Italia and tackle the Double Giro-Tour with a tailwind.
Can Mathieu van der Poel win Liège-Bastogne-Liège?
On paper, Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) is Pogacar's big rival. After his successes in the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, the outstanding rider of the spring so far is also aiming for victory in Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Should he succeed, the Dutchman would only be missing the Tour of Lombardy in his collection of cycling monuments. But here we have to pour a little water into the wine and realistically assess van der Poel's chances. There is more to be said against a victory for the world champion on Sunday than in favour of it.
The 29-year-old prefers the cobbled classics to the Ardennes - and for good reason: Liège-Bastogne-Liège is more suited to climbers, of which van der Poel is not one, than the Tour of Flanders, for example, due to the characteristics of its climbs. In terms of physical stature alone, van der Poel is already going into the race against Pogacar with a handicap. The world champion has 75 kilograms on his ribs. That's nine more than the Slovenian. Although van der Poel finished sixth in his only participation in 2020, he was unable to keep up with the very best in the final. Another argument against the Dutchman is his performance at the Amstel Gold Race. He was unable to make his mark there and rode largely anonymously to 22nd place. It looks as if his form is no longer at its peak, as it was at Paris-Roubaix. That's why we only give van der Poel three stars.
Thomas Pidcock hot for next victory after Amstel Gold Race
In contrast, we have ranked Thomas Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers). The Brit finished second behind Evenepoel in Liège in 2023 and won the Amstel Gold Race a week ago. At the Fleche Wallonne during the week, the 24-year-old, like many other favourites, dropped out early in miserable weather. This is unlikely to have affected his good form. In combination with his skills, which are made for Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Pidcock should be Pogacar's first challenger.
Behind Pidcock last year was Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain-Victorious) to third place at Liège-Bastogne-Liège. The 24-year-old Colombian climbing specialist feels at home in the Ardennes, which he underlined once again with fifth place at the Fleche Wallonne on Wednesday, and he is an extremely tough racer, which makes him a three-star candidate for Sunday.
Israel-Premier Tech with two options
Of course, we also have to mention the Fleche winner when it comes to the favourites for Liège-Bastogne-Liège: Stephen Williams (Israel-Premier Tech). The Briton had already won the Tour Down Under in January and surprisingly won the Mur de Huy on Wednesday. The Doyenne is new territory for the 27-year-old. After his performance during the week, however, everyone should have him on their radar. And Israel-Premier Tech has a second ace up his sleeve: Dylan Teuns.
The Belgian was already reckoned with at the Fleche Wallonne, which he won in 2022. However, the rain and cold also took their toll on him. Sixth place in 2022 is his best result to date in Liège, and the 32-year-old showed that he is in good form by finishing second at the Brabantse Pijl a week and a half ago.
Mattias Skjelmose, Maxim van Gils and Kevin Vauquelin
Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl Trek), who finished third in the Tour of the Basque Country and ninth in Liège last year. However, the 23-year-old Dane caused a stir during the week at the Fleche Wallonne makes headlines with shocking images. He was so cold that he had to be carried away by a carer. According to the team, Skjelmose was "only" hypothermic. It remains to be seen how this will affect his performance on Sunday. Maxim van Gils (Lotto-Dstny) is one year older than Skjelmose. In 2023, the Belgian finished 11th in Liège at the age of 23 and will be pushing for the top 10 this year. His form is good, as van Gils showed with third place at the Fleche Wallonne.
The final two-star candidate is Kevin Vauquelin (Arkea-B&B Hotels) on our list. The 22-year-old has flown somewhat under the radar - wrongly so. After all, he only narrowly missed out on winning the Fleche Wallonne on Wednesday. Vauquelin started his sprint a little too late and didn't quite manage to catch Williams. He is celebrating his debut in Liège. He has a lot to live up to.
EF Education EasyPost duo reckons it has a chance
Let's move on to the candidates with one star. Firstly, we have a duo from EF Education EasyPostRichard Carapaz and Ben Healy. The form barometer of Carapaz, winner of the 2019 Giro d'Italia, has recently pointed upwards with 13th place at the Fleche Wallonne. The fleet-footed climber from Ecuador has all the prerequisites for a top result at Liège-Bastogne-Liège. The question is whether he will be able to put them on the road again.
His team-mate Healy was already fourth in the Doyenne last year. At 23, the Irishman is still in the middle of his development. To give him more than one star, the results have been lacking so far this season.
Bora-Hansgrohe without Primoz Roglic and Maximilian Schachmann
For Bora-Hansgrohe Aleksandr Vlasov is likely to be the best option in the absence of Primoz Roglic and Maximilian Schachmann. Although the Russian did not finish the Fleche Wallonne on Wednesday, he has already shown in recent years with third and fourth place in the Tour of Lombardy that he can also be a front runner in tough classics.
Visma | Lease a Bike is sending Tiesj Benoot into the race. The Belgian is a solid rider for the classics - seventh twice at Liège-Bastogne-Liège. The 30-year-old will have to come up with an unconventional tactic for Sunday in order to make it to the top.
Egan Bernal starts at Liège-Bastogne-Liège
Egan Bernal's start at Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2024 also seems somewhat unconventional, as the Colombian is primarily known as a stage race specialist. The 2019 Tour de France winner will be riding the Doyenne for the first time. What can he do? As with Vlasov, it's worth taking a look at the Tour of Lombardy. Bernal has ridden it three times so far as the only Monument and finished third on the podium in 2019. That could be a sign of things to come. After his strong performance recently at the Tour of Catalunya (third overall), the 27-year-old is well on his way back to his old strength and could spring a surprise in Liège.
Insider tip Alexey Lutsenko
Our final candidate in the TOUR favourites check - and therefore an insider tip - is Alexey Lutsenko (Astana Qazaqstan Team). Although the 31-year-old Kazakh has never finished better than 89th in six starts in Liège, he is in excellent form and can compete with Pogacar's team. At the Giro d'Abruzzo, Lutsenko literally led the entire UAE Team Emirates by the nose at the mountain top finish at Prati di Tivo and prevailed alone against Pavel Sivakov, Adam Yates and Diego Ulissi. Of course, Pogacar is in a different league, but he shouldn't underestimate Lutsenko on Sunday.
