Giro d'Italia 2024 - the favourites: These are the challengers to Tadej Pogacar
Thomas Goldmann
· 03.05.2024
Giro d'Italia 2024 - the most important facts in brief
Giro d'Italia 2024 - the TOUR favourites by stars*
* Nairo Quintana, Damiano Caruso, Antonio Tiberi, Juan Pedro Lopez, Thymen Arensman, Eddie Dunbar, Luke Plapp, Alexey Lutsenko
** Ben O'Connor, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Daniel Felipe Martinez
*** Geraint Thomas, Romain Bardet
**** -
***** Tadej Pogacar
Tadej Pogacar: A man on a mission
A lot is centred around Tadej Pogacar ahead of the start of the Giro d'Italia. Of course, as a two-time Tour de France winner (2020 and 2021), the Slovenian is the firm favourite, as Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike), who defeated Pogacar at the Tour of France in the last two years, and Giro defending champion Primoz Roglic (Bora-Hansgrohe) are not at the start. Which is why we have not awarded the four-star category to Pogacar.
This year, the Slovenian wants to lay the foundations for the double by winning his Giro debut, followed by victory in the Tour in July. Almost everything speaks in favour of Pogacar - his dominance in the first races of the season is frightening.
The balance sheet of Tadej Pogacar 2024
- Victory at Strade Bianche
- 3rd place at Milan-San Remo
- 4 stage wins and overall victory in the Tour of Catalonia
- Victory at Liège-Bastogne-Liège
The Slovenian's most likely approach to the Giro with a view to the Tour de France is to take as much time as possible off the competition as early as possible in order to conserve resources in weeks two and three of the tour and not have to go too deep. A Pogacar show at the 2024 Giro d'Italia can therefore be expected in the first few days.
What are Tadej Pogacar's weaknesses?
If you are looking for weaknesses in Pogacar, you have to look very closely. Two starting points for the competition would be the team and the high mountains. The UAE Giro team is strong, but not unbeatable. Rui Oliveira, Mikkel Bjerg, Felix Großschartner, Vegard Stake Laengen, Rafal Majka, Juan Sebastian Molano and Domen Novak should pilot Pogacar into the pink jersey. A look at the UAE squad shows that the crème de la crème is not present in the mountains. Adam Yates, Juan Ayuso, Joao Almeida and Pavel Sivakov are high-calibre players that UAE are leaving at home.
Let's move on to the high mountains: In the last two editions of the Tour de France, Pogacar broke down in stages that took place at high altitude: In 2022, Jumbo-Visma launched its major attack against Pogacar at the Col du Galibier (2630 metres altitude), which Vingegaard completed at the Col du Granon (2404 metres altitude). A similar scenario in 2023: Pogacar again ran into problems at high altitude: On the Col de la Loze (2300 metres altitude), he collapsed on the way to Courchevel and conceded more than seven minutes to Vingegaard. It is unlikely that this will also happen in the Giro, but it is a starting point that the competition should bear in mind, as the Giro also climbs above 2000 metres at times.
Geraint Thomas and Romain Bardet - the challengers at the Giro d'Italia 2024
Who is most likely to jeopardise Pogacar? If you look at the overall package, it's probably Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) and Romain Bardet (Team dsm-firmenich PostNL). Thomas, the 2018 Tour de France winner, only had to relinquish the pink jersey to Primoz Roglic in last year's final mountain time trial. This is somewhat atypical, as Thomas is a very good time trialist, which should suit him in 2024: 71.8 kilometres in two time trials against the clock. Coupled with his experience of preparing to the point, this makes Thomas one of Pogacar's first challengers.
Together with Romain Bardet. The Frenchman is also very experienced, having finished second in the Tour de France in 2016. And he is in extremely good form. The latest proof: Bardet's second place at Liège-Bastogne-Liège. The 33-year-old has to make concessions in the time trial, where he is weaker than Thomas. He could make up for this in the mountains.
Ben O'Connor in the Decathlon jersey on the upswing
One shelf further down, we've sorted three riders, led by Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale). The 2021 Tour de France fourth-placed rider is in really good form this year - most recently finishing second at the Tour of the Alps. The Australian is benefiting from the upswing in the French team, which has been transformed since this season - with twelve wins already this season. The 28-year-old is strong in the mountains, with room for improvement in the time trial. The podium is definitely in the cards.
Last year, Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma | Lease a Bike) was still being hailed as a heaven-sent. In 2024, the young Belgian was not yet able to confirm this after his move from Bora-Hansgrohe, which took place with a lot of background noise. Fifth place at O Gran Camino and seventh place at Tirreno-Adriatico will not put any fear in the hearts of the competition. Nevertheless, the 21-year-old will want to place himself even further up front after finishing eighth at the Vuelta a Espana 2023.
Bora-Hansgrohe wants to have a say in the classification with Daniel Felipe Martinez
Following Lennard Kämna's accident in Tenerife, Team Bora-Hansgrohe has sent Daniel Felipe Martinez to the start as sole captain. Former Tour de France fourth-placed Emanuel Buchmann was not considered, which annoyed the German. Martinez's chances? Top 5 or even the podium. The Colombian achieved his best placing in a Grand Tour in 2021, when he finished fifth in the Giro in the slipstream of Egan Bernal as a helper for Ineos Grenadiers. Martinez is solid in the time trial and, on a good day, hardly needs to fear anyone in the high mountains.
What are Florian Lipowitz's chances at the Giro d'Italia 2024?
Florian Lipowitz is also part of the Bora-Hansgrohe team. The ex-biathlete recently gave the competition a fright in the mountains at the Tour de Romandie. However, German cycling fans should not expect too much from the 23-year-old at the Giro. It is his first Grand Tour. Accordingly, Lipowitz's first priority is to learn and fulfil team tasks.
Nairo Quintana: Return to the Giro d'Italia 2024
Let's move on to the one-star candidates: Nairo Quintana (Movistar). The Colombian is making his comeback at the Giro, which he won ten years ago. However, he no longer has the level of performance he had back then. A ligament injury in his arm also affected the preparation of the mountain specialist, who himself said he wanted to go stage hunting. Quintana is only likely to play a serious role in the classification if the race constellation is favourable.
Veteran and rookie at Bahrain-Victorious
With Damiano Caruso and Antonio Tiberi, Bahrain-Victorious is sending a young-old tadem into the race. The 22-year-old Tiberi is also a household name outside of cycling - but for an unfortunate reason: The youngster had to pay a fine after shooting the cat of San Marino's tourism minister. At that time, the Italian was still riding for Trek-Segafredo, but he has since switched to Bahrain and is back in the sporting headlines. Among other things, he recently finished third in the Tour of the Alps. With similarly good form at the Giro, Tiberi could be looking towards the top 5. Supported by his team-mate Caruso. The 36-year-old climber was already second in the Tour of Italy in 2021, but his best days are probably behind him.
Juan Pedro Lopez and Thymen Arensman
The Tour of the Alps was won by Juan Pedro Lopez (Lidl-Trek). The 26-year-old Spanish climber rode in pink at the Giro for a long time in 2022, but things hadn't gone well since then until the Tour of the Alps. If he presents himself similarly strong in the mountains at the Giro, he could also finish at the front.
In the slipstream of Geraint Thomas, Thymen Arensman (Ineos Grenadiers) could also move into the top ranks of the overall classification. At the age of 24, the Dutchman has already finished sixth in the Giro and the Vuelta and is still regarded as a great talent. Maybe the Giro will be the final straw?
Jayco-AlUla duo at the Giro d'Italia 2024
We have another duo at Jayco-AlUla. Firstly, there is Eddie Dunbar. The Irishman was with Sky and Ineos for a long time and was allowed to ride the Giro on his own account for the first time last year, with success. He finished seventh in the overall standings. It is not very likely that it will be enough for more in 2024. Dunbar broke his hand at the UAE Tour this spring, which severely limited his Giro preparation. It is therefore difficult to make a prognosis for the 27-year-old. Jayco-AlUla also has a promising talent on board for the tours in Luke Plapp. The 23-year-old recently shone in the first mountain finish of the Tour de Romandie with third place and was also sixth in Paris-Nice.
Alexey Lutsenko knows how to beat UAE Team Emirates
The last candidate with a star on our list is Alexey Lutsenko (Astana Qazaqstan Team). The Kazakh was already seventh in the 2021 Tour de France, so he can definitely ride at a solid level for three weeks. At the Abruzzo Giro, the 31-year-old led Team UAE by the nose at the mountain finish in Prati di Tivo, which is also on the programme at the Giro, and won in impressive style. Lutsenko is also always good at sneaking into a breakaway group, which could then propel him into the top ranks of the classification in the mountains.
