When, on Friday, the 2026 Vuelta a España As the race gets underway, there’s really only one answer to the question of who the favourite is. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates – XRG) heads to Spain as the clear favourite. The Slovenian has already dominated the Tour de France at will and has once again proved this year that he is the most complete stage racer in the world. It would take something truly extraordinary for Pogačar not to live up to his role as favourite. A victory in the Vuelta a España is still missing from the world champion’s collection, so his motivation to close this gap is likely to be correspondingly high.
The TOUR favourites, ranked by stars*
***** Tadej Pogačar
**** Felix Gall, Richard Carapaz
*** Mattias Skjelmose, Tobias Halland Johannessen
** Finn Fisher-Black, Primož Roglič, Sepp Kuss
* Oscar Onley, Enric Mas, Marco Brenner
* The more stars a female rider receives, the higher her chances are considered to be
The closest challengers
Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM Team)
Behind Pogačar, Felix Gall is one of the hot favourites for a podium place at the Vuelta a España. The Austrian impressively demonstrated his class at the Giro d’Italia, where he was beaten only by Jonas Vingegaard. Gall is regarded as an excellent climber, but his greatest strengths really come to the fore on long Alpine passes, where he can find his rhythm.
This is precisely where the Vuelta could prove to be a challenge. No other stage race features as many short, explosive and extremely steep climbs as the Tour of Spain. This characteristic suits Gall slightly less. Nevertheless, the Austrian arrives as one of Pogačar’s strongest challengers.
Richard Carapaz (EF Education - EasyPost)
Richard Carapaz is also among the closest challengers. At the Tour de France, the Ecuadorian once again looked like the rider who had once won the Giro d’Italia. Although the general classification was not his primary objective, he still finished the Tour de France in eighth place. Carapaz was particularly impressive in the final week, securing two stage victories in the high mountains.
His long-standing health problems seem to have been finally overcome. More importantly, the steep climbs of the Vuelta a España are likely to be his favourite terrain. When the road reaches double-digit gradients, Carapaz is one of the most dangerous riders in the entire peloton.
The second row
Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl – Trek)
Like Pogačar and Carapaz, Mattias Skjelmose has already completed the Tour de France, where he made an excellent impression. Finishing sixth, the Dane actually performed better than his team-mate Juan Ayuso.
The conditions for a successful Vuelta are therefore in place. Whilst an overall victory seems extremely unlikely given the competition Pogačar faces, a place on the podium is certainly a realistic prospect for Skjelmose.
Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility)
Tobias Halland Johannessen is one of the most exciting riders in the peloton. The Norwegian finished twelfth overall in the Tour de France and demonstrated his climbing prowess on several occasions. However, following his sixth-place finish in last year’s Tour, this result was somewhat disappointing.
To achieve a major breakthrough in a Grand Tour, Johannessen will therefore need to make a significant leap in performance. He undoubtedly has the potential to do so. Should he succeed, he could find himself in contention for a top-five finish or even a podium place.
The Outsiders
Finn Fisher-Black and Primož Roglič (Red Bull – Bora – hansgrohe)
Although Primož Roglič is also travelling to Spain, various reports suggest that the Slovenian is not expected to focus entirely on the general classification. This could present an interesting opportunity for Finn Fisher-Black within the team.
The New Zealander has excellent all-round skills and could benefit from being given more freedom. Whilst he currently lacks the consistency needed to make the big headlines, he should by no means be written off as a dark horse.
Enric Mas (Movistar Team)
With Enric Mas, the same question arises at every Grand Tour: can he repeat his best Grand Tour performances?
The Spaniard has rarely impressed in his most recent races over the past three weeks. At the same time, he has proven on several occasions – particularly in the Vuelta a España – that he often performs better in Spain than elsewhere. His podium finish in 2024 shows the calibre of performance he is still capable of. Nevertheless, another top-three finish would be a major surprise.
Oscar Onley (Ineos Grenadiers)
Hardly any other rider is as difficult to assess ahead of this Vuelta as Oscar Onley. The Briton was unable to compete in the Tour de France, even though his entire season’s planning had been geared towards that race.
In principle, Onley has the talent to achieve top results in major stage races. However, his performances have so far been rather inconsistent. With him, it often seems to be a case of all or nothing. A place in the top ten would therefore come as little surprise, but an early collapse would be just as unsurprising.
Sepp Kuss (Team Visma | Lease a Bike)
The 2023 Vuelta a España winner is also among the wider group of favourites. Sepp Kuss is once again proving himself to be a true all-rounder and will be competing in all three Grand Tours again this season. No one else is tackling such a programme.
The American knows the Spanish mountains like hardly any other rider in the peloton. At the same time, the past few months have shown that he is not quite in peak form at the moment. It is likely to be difficult for him to secure another overall victory, but a strong result in the top ten seems entirely realistic.
The German hidden gem
Marco Brenner (Tudor Pro Cycling Team)
Anyone looking for a real hidden gem should keep an eye on Marco Brenner. The German was in impressive form at the Tour of Poland, where he celebrated the greatest stage race success of his career.
His versatility was particularly impressive. Brenner performed well both on short, explosive climbs and in the decisive time trial. It is precisely these qualities that could help him in the Vuelta. Everything would probably have to go perfectly for him to make the podium, but a place in the top ten or even the top five certainly seems a possibility.
Conclusion
Everything points to Tadej Pogačar. The Slovenian heads into the Vuelta a España as the clear favourite and is likely to be a tough nut to crack. Behind him, Felix Gall and Richard Carapaz in particular promise to make the battle for the podium a thrilling one. With Mattias Skjelmose, Tobias Halland Johannessen, Finn Fisher-Black and the in-form Marco Brenner, there are also several riders who could spring a surprise. Should Pogačar indeed falter, the door will be thrown open for a completely wide-open battle for the red jersey.
Leon Weidner
Editor