Rick Van Looy, Roger De Vlaeminck and Eddy Merckx: Tadej Pogačar would love to hear his name mentioned in the same breath as this illustrious trio. The three Belgians are the only riders in the history of cycling to have won all five monuments - Milan-San Remo, Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Tour of Lombardy. Pogačar is still missing Milan-San Remo and Paris-Roubaix from his palmarès. Two races that are not so easy for the Slovenian to win. He has never competed in Roubaix. The last time there was talk of such a speculated again and againbut it would be associated with considerable risks. Pogačar has tried San Remo four times so far. His best result was third place in 2024. Although the peloton swept over the 288 kilometres at a record average speed of 46.112 km/h last year, Pogačar complained afterwards that the race was too slow for him. was too easy.
Previous results of Tadej Pogačar at Milan-San Remo
- 2020: Rank 12
- 2022: Rank 5
- 2023: Rank 4
- 2024: Rank 3
"I actually think it was one of the easiest races ever. We set a super easy pace in the first few hours. But to win, everything has to be perfect. This time, not everything was perfect," Pogačar complained after the 2024 edition. In fact, the 26-year-old hit the nail on the head. For a rider with a fighting weight of 66 kilograms, it is extremely difficult to outpace the competition on the course on the Ligurian coast. Basically, there are only two options: the Cipressa and the Poggio. In the following, we show how the race could go there and assess Pogačar's chances in each scenario.
Scenario 1: Attack at the Cipressa
Will Pogačar attack on the Cipressa (5.6 kilometres with an average of 4.1 per cent) and try to storm to victory solo for more than 20 kilometres? After his unsuccessful endeavours on the Poggio in the past, it's tempting to try an unconventional tactic this time. But that would probably be a suicide mission - even for Pogačar. For two reasons: You have to look a little further back in the history of Milan-San Remo to find the last attack on the Cipressa that led to success: Gabriele Colombo in 1996 was the last rider to attack on the Cipressa and later win the race. Back then, however, he did so with the friendly support of the support bikes, which provided plenty of slipstream. In addition, Pogačar's UAE Emirates team has not been particularly skilful on the Cipressa in the past and, for example, rode far too far back into the climb in 2024 to really hurt the competition on the rest of the climb.
Scenario 2: Attack on the Poggio
Pogačar has tried this in the past. In 2022 he didn't get away, in 2023 he didn't get away either, even conceding to Mathieu van der Poel's counterattack afterwards, which he had nothing to counter. In 2024, Pogačar opened up a gap with his second attack, which was then closed by van der Poel, neutralising the race situation. In the end, everything came back together and van der Poel's team-mate Jasper Philipsen won the sprint. In fact, this option remains the most promising for Pogačar from our point of view. However, everything has to come together for this: his team has to make the race as hard as possible beforehand - full throttle over Capo Mele, Cervo, Berta, Cipressa - and ride as close as possible at the front of the peloton into the Poggio, which is 3.7 kilometres and 3.7 per cent steep on average. Otherwise, the climb is too short and too flat for a lightweight like the Slovenian to make a difference here. Another factor could speak in favour of this tactic and play into Pogačar's hands: the weather. It could rain on Saturday - a natural selection criterion, which means that the competition is likely to arrive at the Poggio with even more tired legs.
Scenario 3: Attack on the descent
Matej Mohorič showed the way in 2022: With dropper post and a breakneck descent from the Poggio, Milan-San Remo. But is that also something for Pogačar? Probably not. After all, it was he who opened up the gap in the Poggio descent during his compatriot's triumph three years ago. Especially as Pogačar only recently won Strade Bianche crashed on a descent after making a mistake and possibly still has that in the back of his mind. He is unlikely to take such a risk on Saturday. Particularly as helmsmen like Thomas Pidcock (two-time Olympic mountain bike champion) and van der Poel (seven-time cyclocross world champion) are unlikely to let themselves be left behind by Pogačar downhill.
Scenario 4: Sprint on the Via Roma
Milan-San Remo is often decided by a sprint from a small group. What are Pogačar's chances? Not bad, but not very good either. The Tour de France winner can sprint. Last year, only Michael Matthews and Philipsen were faster than Pogačar in a group of twelve riders battling for victory. The Slovenian can't compete with such top sprinters, but even against riders like Filippo Ganna and van der Poel it will be difficult in a direct sprint duel - should it come to that. Pogačar should therefore not rely on his sprint.
