The search is on for the successor to Jhonatan Narváez (UAE Team Emirates - XRG), who wants to defend his Tour Down Under title at this year's edition. The team of the reigning winner also has another former winner in its ranks, Jay Vine. Last season's dominant racing team will once again be hard to beat at the start in Down Under, but nothing is impossible on the undulating stages. Who will pull on the ochre-coloured overall winner's jersey this year?
If you take a look at the start list, you can see some big names. But one team stands out in particular: UAE Team Emirates - XRG. In addition to last year's winner, the team around cycling star Tadej Pogačar is sending some strong riders to Australia. Meanwhile, most of the other top teams are sending young and inexperienced riders to the race. With nine riders, the Germans are also strongly represented, even if it is likely to be difficult for the overall victory. However, it will be exciting either way, as most of the stages have a strong classic character and anything can happen on this terrain. We have picked out some of the hot contenders and do the favourites check.
***** Jhonatan Narváez, Jay Vine
**** Finn Fisher-Black
*** Lennert Van Eetvelt, Adam Yates
** Santiago Buitrago, Javier Romo
* Luke Plapp, Ben O'Connor, Matthew Brennan, Corbin Strong
* The more stars a driver receives, the higher her chances are rated
Note: At the time of publication of this article, the final start list has not yet been 100 per cent finalised. It is possible that riders mentioned here will not start
Last year's winner is back on the starting line of the Tour Down Under. Jhonatan Narváez is once again one of the big favourites for overall victory in the 2026 season opener in Australia and has a very strong team behind him. The undulating terrain with its short, steep climbs clearly suits the Ecuadorian. After a good 2025 season, Narváez comes to the start of the season with a tailwind and, like Noemi Rüegg, could also defend the title.
The second top favourite from one of the other big teams? You thought wrong. Alongside Narváez, Jay Vine is the next rider from UAE Team Emirates - XRG who could snatch overall victory Down Under. It would also be a home win for the Australian, which would provide an extra dose of motivation. However, it all depends on whether Vine will be riding on his own account or whether he will be fully committed to a helper role.
The young New Zealander could put a real spanner in the works for the dominant UAE team. Finn Fisher-Black finished third in the last edition Down Under and proved his strength despite his age. As with Narváez, the terrain should suit Fisher-Black.
Another 24-year-old talent who has already shown what he is capable of at the UAE Tour 2024. However, Lennert Van Eetvelt was subsequently affected by several crashes and is taking part in the Tour Down Under for the first time. The Belgian could set a first big exclamation mark for the merged team.
The third of the all-powerful team in the bunch. Hardly any other rider epitomises the helper role as much as Adam Yates. The experienced Briton has already won several small tours. Should the team unexpectedly ride for Yates, he is a clear favourite to win.
Santiago Buitrago is a real climbing specialist. However, the climbs could be too short for the Colombian to play to his strengths. He could definitely spring a surprise with a victory.
Last year's runner-up is once again leading the Movistar team and could achieve another good result. However, after a promising start to the 2025 season, the Spaniard was unable to confirm his form to any significant extent. There is therefore a question mark behind his name.
As is so often the case, there are a whole host of riders who are not among the absolute top favourites, but who could land a top position or even the big coup. Particularly at the start of the season, there is still uncertainty about the form of individual athletes.
The Australian team Jayco AlUla has two such riders. Luke Plapp and Ben O'Connor have both enjoyed great success, with the latter having already finished on the podium of a Grand Tour. Both riders are also Australians, so they have a home game. Neither of them delivered any top results last season, so it is questionable whether they will be able to reach the top. The 20-year-old Matthew Brennan (Team Visma | Lease a Bike), on the other hand, has collected a few victories. As a sprinter with good hill climbing ability and a tendency towards good classics skills, the short hills should not cause him any problems. On Corksrew Road and Willunga Hill, however, it should be difficult for the young Brit. Corbin Strong (NSN Cycling Team), on the other hand, is a real classics rider. The New Zealander impressed in the second half of the 2025 season in particular with victories at the Tour de Wallonie and the Arctic Race of Norway. As a result, he is also coming to Australia with a lot of self-confidence and wants to make a big splash.
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