Tour Down Under 2024The favourites - who will succeed Jay Vine?

Thomas Goldmann

 · 15.01.2024

Favourites for the Tour Down Under: Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers)
Photo: DPA Picture Alliance
The Tour Down Under 2024 marks the start of the men's cycling season at World Tour level. Some stars are at the start in Australia. TOUR takes a look at the favourites.

Tour Down Under 2024 - the most important facts in brief

The search is on for the successor to Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates), who will not be defending his title at the Tour Down Under in 2024. Who will pull on the ochre-coloured jersey of the overall winner this year? We have picked out eleven candidates and do the favourites check. The more stars a rider gets, the higher they are rated.

The TOUR favourites by stars

* Filippo Ganna, Isaac del Toro, Jhonatan Narvaez

** Jack Haig, Milan Vader, Johannes Staune-Mittet, Michael Storer

*** Julian Alaphilippe, Diego Ulissi

**** Luke Plapp

***** Simon Yates

* Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers)

Filippo GannaPhoto: DPA Picture AllianceFilippo Ganna

The Ineos Grenadiers team doesn't have one top favourite at the start, but has several cards it can play. One of them is Filippo Ganna. The world hour record holder can sprint well (twice second in bunch sprints at the Vuelta a Espana 2023), which could earn him bonuses on the first stages, and he can also get up the mountains reasonably well - as long as it's not too steep. Willunga Hill could fit into the category of climbs that Ganna can tackle with the best on a good day.

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* Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates)

Isaac del ToroPhoto: DPA Picture AllianceIsaac del Toro
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Are we looking at the next cycling prodigy? With third place in the Down Under Criterium, the 20-year-old Mexican has already made his mark among the pros. In 2023, the youngster won the Tour de l'Avenir, the Tour de France for young professionals. This means that the other favourites should at least have him on their radar. It is still unclear how he will find his way around a tour at professional level.

* Jhonatan Narvaez (Ineos Grenadiers)

Jhonatan NarvaezPhoto: DPA Picture AllianceJhonatan Narvaez

Alongside Filippo Ganna, another Ineos Grenadiers candidate who could at least have an outside chance in the battle for overall victory at the Tour Down Under. The Ecuadorian won the Down Under Classic out of a breakaway group and proved last year with his victory in the Tour of Austria that he can also win tours with difficult mountains.

** Jack Haig (Bahrain-Victorious)

Jack HaigPhoto: DPA Picture AllianceJack Haig

The Australian is contesting his home race for the first time since 2015, when he finished 16th in the final standings. This year, Bahrain-Victorious is likely to put all its faith in Haig. The 30-year-old is a good climber and rides on home roads. The competition should not let him out of their sight.

** Milan Vader (Visma | Lease a Bike)

Milan VaderPhoto: DPA Picture AllianceMilan Vader

The 27-year-old Dutchman won his first tour at World Tour level at the Tour of Guangxi last October and could be an insider tip for the Tour Down Under 2024.

** Johannes Staune-Mittet (Visma | Lease a Bike)

Johannes Staune-MittetPhoto: DPA Picture AllianceJohannes Staune-Mittet

At Visma | Lease a Bike, the Norwegian is likely to start the race as equal captain with Vader. The potential of the 21-year-old is likely to be even greater than that of Vader. But the question is, how will the neo-pro get through the first four stages up to Willunga Hill?

** Michael Storer (Australian national team)

Michael StorerPhoto: DPA Picture AllianceMichael Storer

The 26-year-old, who switched from Groupama-FDJ to Tudor Pro Cycling in 2024, is leading the Australian national team in the Tour Down Under. Storer is a good climber and is also extremely tough.

*** Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal - Quick Step)

Julian AlaphilippePhoto: DPA Picture AllianceJulian Alaphilippe

Two-time road world champion Julian Alaphilippe certainly has the most impressive palmares of all the starters. However, the 31-year-old Frenchman has long since lost his form of days gone by. Since his serious crash at Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2022, he has yet to really get back into shape. He is highly motivated for 2024. Starts at the Tour of Flanders and the Giro d'Italia are planned. It is also his contract year. However, there is a huge question mark over his form.

*** Diego Ulissi (UAE Team Emirates)

Diego UlissiPhoto: DPA Picture AllianceDiego Ulissi

The Italian is the prototype of the rider needed for the Tour Down Under: strong climber, explosive, strong sprinter and good in positions. In 2020, he finished second at the World Tour opener in Australia. At 34, however, the question is whether Ulissi is still lively enough to stand up to the young guard.

**** Luke Plapp (Team Jayco-AlUla)

Luke PlappPhoto: DPA Picture AllianceLuke Plapp

The 23-year-old is already in very good form. He recently took his third consecutive road race title at the Australian Championships and also won the time trial. Following his switch from Ineos Grenadiers to Team Jayco-AlUla, he will certainly want to place himself as high up in the team hierarchy as possible at the home World Tour opener. Plapp already finished second at the 2023 UAE Tour, beaten only by Remco Evenepoel. This year, he is aiming for his first World Tour victory - at best at the Tour Down Under.

***** Simon Yates (Team Jayco-AlUla)

Simon Yates (right) fought a tough battle with Jay Vine (left) for overall victory at the Tour Down Under in 2023Photo: DPA Picture AllianceSimon Yates (right) fought a tough battle with Jay Vine (left) for overall victory at the Tour Down Under in 2023

The Briton is the Australian team Jayco-AlUla's second trump card. Last year, Yates missed out on victory in the Tour Down Under by just 11 seconds behind Jay Vine. The 31-year-old is also the only rider from last year's top 10 to start this year. This fact, combined with his skills as an outstanding climber, makes him the top favourite for the 2024 Tour Down Under.

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