At the start of the Tour, we got ourselves going with a Giro feeling. Now comes a stage whose finish is once again very close to the Italian border - and perhaps its objective has also been copied from there. I wouldn't be surprised if the Tour de France planners were hoping for a race similar to the one that caused a furore at the Giro d'Italia in 2016. The profile of the penultimate stage back then is very reminiscent of today's race: Then as now, Col de Vars and the Cime de la Bonette are on the programme, and today the stage also ends with a very difficult mountain finish. Back then, the Italian Vincenzo Nibali took the lead in the Giro and went on to win the Tour on the final day in Turin. Is there a similar chance of taking the classification today? The peloton will climb more than 2000 metres three times today, passing the highest asphalted mountain road in France, the Bonette at 2800 metres.
The stage is also cut in such a way that the sprinters have to fight very hard against exclusion: it is short, with two HC and one category one climb without a run-out at the end. If a strong team has its resources together for the classification, it can attack from the sprint classification onwards and try to break up the favourites before the final climb. I wouldn't stray too far from the TV today, because things are likely to get dramatic here.
As a racer with a great overview, Rolf Aldag was a bank for successful Tour teams and supported Bjarne Riis and Jan Ullrich in their victories in France. As a sports manager and sporting director, the Westphalian is also one of the most respected representatives in the industry. He is also planning the Tour de France mission again in 2024 with the newly named Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe team. As in previous years, Aldag has once again focussed exclusively on this year's Tour for TOUR readers.
The 55-year-old has looked at the dramaturgy of the route planners and gone into detail to assess the possible course of the individual stages. In this work, he reflects on which constellations are likely in the race and which riders are likely to have particular hopes - or worries - on which stages. He also includes his view on innovations and trends in the business. In addition, Aldag provides a compact overview of the relevance of each stage for the classification. He assigns zero to three jerseys per classification: for the overall classification (yellow jersey), the points classification for the best sprinters (green jersey) and the Tour's mountain classification (dotted jersey). In this way, Rolf Aldag's forecast offers added value every day.
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