When I look at the map today, the first thing I think about is not the route and climbs - but the wind. This area near the Mediterranean regularly has a lot to offer. In 2017, for example, there was the second stage of the Vuelta a Espana, which connected both of today's stage towns, but it was even more exposed to the wind with more kilometres along the coast. So what we can expect today is either a sprinter's stage - or a tough battle between windy squadrons that will try to either lose or catch up with each other on the open, flat route. The finish in Nimes does bring back memories of an important German stage win, which Nils Politt took solo in 2020. However, back then he came over the hills from the north and the thermals were completely different.
Breakaways will have no chance on this route. This was also the case in 2017 at the Vuelta, where the peloton was torn apart at the finish and a robust classics specialist, Belgian Yves Lampaert, won. So, if the wind blows from the Mediterranean coast, it should be a nasty day for all those who have something to lose in the overall classification. In peaceful weather conditions, this is a stage for the bunch sprint. And that means it is in all probability the last opportunity in this Tour de France to hit the jackpot of a stage win in France in this tried and tested way.
As a racer with a great overview, Rolf Aldag was a bank for successful Tour teams and supported Bjarne Riis and Jan Ullrich in their victories in France. As a sports manager and sporting director, the Westphalian is also one of the most respected representatives in the industry. He is also planning the Tour de France mission again in 2024 with the newly named Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe team. As in previous years, Aldag has once again focussed exclusively on this year's Tour for TOUR readers.
The 55-year-old has looked at the dramaturgy of the route planners and gone into detail to assess the possible course of the individual stages. In this work, he reflects on which constellations are likely in the race and which riders are likely to have particular hopes - or worries - on which stages. He also includes his view on innovations and trends in the business. In addition, Aldag provides a compact overview of the relevance of the respective stage for which classification. He assigns zero to three jerseys per classification: for the overall classification (yellow jersey), the points classification for the best sprinters (green jersey) and the Tour's mountain classification (dotted jersey). In this way, Rolf Aldag's forecast offers added value every day.
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