Today you should study the weather forecast and the map carefully. What clearly looks like a sprinter's stage on the one hand could turn into a stressful battle between disintegrating groups due to the wind situation and result in a reduced sprint. On the way south, the route passes through open plains. Twice the route turns eastwards, then southwards again. Teams like Saxo-Tinkoff in 2013 and the Omega-PharmaQuickstep team, where I worked at the time, utilise this type of scenario. On stage 13, there was a fierce exchange of blows right from the start, with our team and Alberto Contador's team trying to put the competition under stress.
They succeeded perfectly. With 30 kilometres to go, the tough riders provoked a break in the leading group, setting the stage for top sprinter Mark Cavendish's victory. This supposedly harmless stage was particularly bitter for Alejandro Valverde at the time, who lost almost ten minutes in the overall classification. Today we have pretty much the same finale as back then, so you can be warned. However, if the thermals don't send crosswinds onto the roads, I see this stage as a classic sprinter's stage. There's no other informative option on this route to pull out a lead and hold it when the big boys are leading behind.
As a racer with a great overview, Rolf Aldag was a bank for successful Tour teams and supported Bjarne Riis and Jan Ullrich in their victories in France. As a sports manager and sporting director, the Westphalian is also one of the most respected representatives in the industry. He is also planning the Tour de France mission again in 2024 with the newly named Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe team. As in previous years, Aldag has once again focussed exclusively on this year's tour for TOUR readers.
The 55-year-old has looked at the dramaturgy of the route planners and gone into detail to assess the possible course of the individual stages. In this work, he reflects on which constellations are likely in the race and which riders are likely to have particular hopes - or worries - on which stages. He also includes his view on innovations and trends in the business. In addition, Aldag provides a compact overview of the relevance of the respective stage for which classification. He assigns zero to three jerseys per classification: for the overall classification (yellow jersey), the points classification for the best sprinters (green jersey) and the Tour's mountain classification (dotted jersey). In this way, Rolf Aldag's forecast offers added value every day.
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