Sebastian Lindner
· 31.05.2024
* Jai Hindley, Ivan Sosa, Guillaume Martin, Mikel Landa, Warren Barguil
** David Gaudu, Santiago Buitrago, Aleksandr Vlasov, Tao Geoghegan Hart
*** Sepp Kuss, Carlos Rodriguez, Antonio Tiberi
**** Remco Evenepoel, Juan Ayuso
***** Primoz Roglic
Only one thing is clear before the start of the Tour: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) will not be defending his title at the Criterium du Dauphine. The Dane is not yet ready to race again after his serious crash at the Tour of the Basque Country. Even participation in the Tour de France in the summer is still up in the air. Remco Evenepoel (Soudal - Quick Step) and Primoz Roglic (Bora-Hansgrohe) were also involved in the same accident. However, they were not quite as badly hit in the end.
Nevertheless, the Belgian and the Slovenian will be competing in their first races since the crash at the beginning of April. Both have already covered plenty of kilometres in training, including at altitude. Which of the two is the stronger, however, is anyone's guess. However, the very difficult profile should favour Roglic, who should not lose too much to Evenepoel in the time trial.
But are they automatically the top favourites again? Presumably yes, as the cards are always reshuffled with regard to the Tour anyway. The form from the spring usually has little in common with the form in June and July, everything is reset again before the big highlight of the season. The disadvantage of a two or three week break from training should therefore hardly be a disadvantage - provided that all injuries have healed.
Nevertheless, there is plenty of competition for the captains of Bora-Hansgrohe and Soudal - Quick Step. The biggest, however, is likely to come from UAE Team Emirates, even if it is not Tadej Pogacar. Juan Ayuso won the fateful Tour of the Basque Country in the absence of the injured, finished fifth in the Tour de Romandie at the end of April and then also took a break from training. His form, like that of all the others, is therefore also subject to question marks. In terms of basic performance, however, he is the first challenger to Roglic and Evenepoel.
Behind them is a long list of names that should all be treated equally. Sepp Kuss, who may have to take on the captain's role for Visma | Lease a Bike at the Tour if Vingegaard doesn't get fit in time, and Carlos Rodriguez (Ineos Grenadiers), winner of the Romandie, are to be mentioned. It will be interesting to see what Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain-Victorious) is capable of after winning the white jersey and finishing fifth overall at the Giro.
It is rather unusual for professional riders, especially those in the classification, to go straight for results after the Tour of Italy. However, Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana Qazqastan), twelfth in the Giro, is another Italian with such ambitions. However, it is also quite possible that Tiberi will move back into the second GLied and be the noble helper for Santiago Buitrago.
This is also the task of Aleksandr Vlasov and Jai Hindley in Bora's strong team. As tactical options, or in the event of a weak phase for captain Roglic, top 10 results in the final standings are at least conceivable. For the French hopes David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) and Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), a single-digit result should also be the minimum target. Tao Geoghegan Hart (Lidl-Trek) is also likely to be aiming for this, but it is still not clear whether the Brit will be able to return to his old level of performance following his crash and pelvic fracture at the 2023 Giro.