AI chatbots such as ChatGPT are language models that cannot look into the future. What the current models can do, however, is soak up knowledge on the internet and draw conclusions from it. We asked AI chatbots to predict the winner and podium candidates of the Tour de France 2025. To prevent the chatbots from hallucinating too much, we instructed them to use betting odds and assessments by cycling journalists as a guide. We also used so-called reasoning - in other words, we asked the AI to think for longer. Because we don't want any nonsense, we asked for a clear, bold prediction in our prompts. After the first ten stages, we already have some new insights - the AI chatbots all slept through João Almeida's elimination. Reasoning didn't help - the knowledge was out of date. But apart from that, the result is clear - read for yourself:
Tour de France winner 2025 Answer from Gemini KI
As a cycling expert who follows the current developments, the form of the riders and the assessments of the journalists as well as the betting odds, I give you a bold and clear forecast for the Tour de France 2025:
Clear winner of the Tour de France 2025: Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG)
There is currently no way around Tadej Pogačar. He goes into the race as the defending champion and top favourite and has had a sensational 2025 season so far. His dominance, especially in the Tour dress rehearsal (Critérium du Dauphiné), where he took the overall victory with three stage wins, speaks volumes. His strengths in the mountains (often referred to as the "measure of all things") and his excellent time trial skills make him an outstanding tour rider. He also has an extremely strong team around him, with helpers such as João Almeida and Adam Yates, who have the potential for a top finish themselves.
The general opinion among cycling journalists and the betting odds confirm this assessment. Pogačar is by far the most likely winner at most bookmakers with very low odds (often around 1.20 - 1.35). Only a crash or illness seems to be able to stop him on his way to his fourth Tour victory.
Forecast for the podium
1st Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG)
* Reason: As mentioned above, he is the most complete and currently the most dominant tour rider. His form is outstanding, his team is strong and he has the experience to win a three-week Grand Tour.
2nd Jonas Vingegaard (Team Visma | Lease a Bike)
* Reason: Vingegaard is Pogačar's biggest challenger and the only one who has really been able to challenge him in recent years (victories in 2022 and 2023). He is a complete tour rider whose speciality is the long and hard mountain stages. Although he may not have shown quite the same dominance as Pogačar this season, he has clearly put his focus on the Tour. Should Pogačar have a small bout of weakness, Vingegaard is the man who would be on hand immediately. The betting odds see him as the clear runner-up behind Pogačar.
3rd Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step)
* Rationale: Remco Evenepoel confirmed his third place at the 2024 Tour and showed that he can also hold his own in the fight for the overall classification over three weeks. He is an excellent time trialist and has steadily improved his skills in the mountains. He is still young and learning, and we can expect him to be even stronger in this Tour. Although he's ranked behind Pogačar and Vingegaard, he has the potential to finish on the podium, especially if one of the top favourites fumbles or doesn't reach his best form. His aggressive riding style and talent make him an exciting candidate for a podium finish.
Who else could play a role?
* Primoz Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe): Roglič is an experienced Grand Tour winner (Vuelta, Giro), but the Tour de France has eluded him so far, often due to crashes or bad luck. At 35, this could be his last real chance. He has the potential for a top 5 finish, but a win seems less likely given the competition. The betting odds reflect this.
* João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates XRG): As Pogačar's noble helper, Almeida has enormous potential himself and is a very consistent tour rider. Should Pogačar unexpectedly run into problems, Almeida would be the first to step into the breach. Even without a leader role, he has what it takes for a top 10 finish, possibly even a top 5.
* Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers): Rodríguez has steadily improved in recent years and was fifth in the Tour in 2023. He is a strong climber and could attack the top 5 if the race goes well or even aim for the podium if the top favourites don't perform optimally.
Forecast winner Tour de France 2025 Le Chat Mistral
Based on the analyses and current forms of the riders, the forecast for the Tour de France 2025 is as follows:
Winner: Tadej Pogačar
- Pogačar is the clear favourite for victory. His dominant form this season and his impressive performances at the Critérium du Dauphiné make him a top candidate for overall victory.
Second place: Jonas Vingegaard
- Vingegaard has shown in the past that he is capable of keeping up with Pogačar, and his consistency in Grand Tours makes him a strong candidate for the podium.
Third place: Remco Evenepoel
- Evenepoel has already shown strong performances this season and could benefit from his ability to dominate time trial courses.
Other podium candidates:
- João Almeida: A strong rider with potential for the podium, especially if he maintains his form.
- Primož Roglič: An experienced rider with the ability to shine in the mountains.
- Florian Lipowitz: An up-and-coming rider who impressed at the Critérium du Dauphiné and could be a surprise.
Tour de France winner 2025 Answer from ChatGPT
Analysis of the favourites Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) goes into the decision for the yellow jersey of the Tour de France 2025 as the clear favourite with odds of 4/11 with the usual betting providers, which impressively underlines his superiority. In addition, numerous cycling journalists have described his form as almost unrivalled in the peloton following his dominant victory at the Critérium du Dauphiné and strong performances in the spring classics.
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) is the only serious contender for Pogačar. His odds of 12/5 reflect that he has the potential to upset Pogačar over the mountains and in time trials, also supported by a strong team around Simon Yates and Wout van Aert. Journalists emphasise his abilities, especially in the Alps, where he wants to decide the race in his favour with targeted attacks.
The third top favourite is Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) with odds of around 9/1. The reigning Olympic time trial champion has fought his way back from injury, won a dominant time trial victory at the Tour de Romandie and showed at the Dauphiné that he is prepared for three weeks of the Grand Tour. Many experts see him as the most exciting outsider who can finish on the podium on a good day.
Potential dark horses and podium candidates
* João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates): Despite being primarily a helper for Pogačar, he finished 4th in 2024 and with his strong time trial and mountain profile has the potential to climb onto the podium himself in team tactical clearances....
* Primož Roglič (Red Bull-BORA-Hansgrohe): Four-time Vuelta winner and 2023 Giro triumphant has excellent time trial skills; if crashes spare him, he could surprise .
* Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost): He currently leads the yellow jersey and has been tactically convincing in the flat stages. His odds are around 100/1 - a risky but not impossible outsider.
Bold forecast for the winner of the Tour de France 2025
Victory: Tadej Pogačar
Given his exceptional 2025 season record, tactical finesse and the support of his team, I think Pogačar is the winner of the 2025 Tour de France.
Second place: Jonas Vingegaard
Vingegaard's blockbuster form in the mountains and his team alliance around Yates and van Aert make him the most likely opponent for Pogačar - he will win the yellow jersey, but will not be able to jeopardise Pogačar.
Third place: Remco Evenepoel
Evenepoel has a top time trial performance and increasingly strong mountain form. If he doesn't suffer any further setbacks, he will take the final podium spot ahead of Almeida or Roglič.
TOUR conclusion: All three chatbots agree on the course of the Tour de France. But we made it easy for the language models by pointing out the betting odds. Because we love cycling, we are still looking forward to exciting stages that will hopefully bring surprises. Fortunately, language models can't see into the future, so we're still looking forward to courageous attacks, successful team tactics and the odd breakaway on the climbs. The Tour de France is always good for a surprise!
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Kristian Bauer
Editor
