In contrast to the previous day, the route of the second stage is hilly and there are three short climbs in the final section, which make the race tactically very different and have an impact on the equipment.
Pure sprinters have no chance in this finale. 9.7 kilometres before the finish, the climb to Côte de Saint-Etienne-au-Mont (1 km, 10.8%) begins, followed by Côte d'Outreau at kilometre 203.8 and the "final climb" of 1.2 km in length with an average gradient of 3.8%. These are certainly not mountain giants, but they are enough to pull the plug on pure sprinters.
Tactically, puncheurs such as Mathieu van der Poel or Wout van Aert, who have explosiveness and stamina, have the advantage today. It would be another chapter in their long rivalry if they were to duel directly in this finale.
But Tadej Pogačar is also good at the finish. It's quite possible that he will make a statement here, even if it's only a few seconds in the overall standings.
The short but steep cliffs in the asphalt raise the question of all questions when it comes to equipment: as light as possible, as aerodynamic as possible, or somewhere in between?
Our simulation knows the answer. We simulate a hard sprint at the foot of the Côte de Saint-Etienne-au-Mont - an attack in the style of Mathieu van der Poel, where one rider breaks away and reaches the finish line as a soloist.
There are 14 seconds between the fastest and slowest bikes in the field for the final stage of the second stage. If Wout van Aert were to choose the 6.8 kg Cervélo R5 over the more aerodynamic but heavier S5, he would lose 14 seconds just because of his choice of bike.
This is because the two Cervélo bikes are opposites in our calculation. The S5 is the fastest bike and even narrowly beats the slightly more aerodynamic Van Rysel RCR-F Pro because it is around 400 g lighter. Other aero bikes follow in the rankings. Mathieu van der Poel is also very well equipped with the Canyon Aeroad. Tadej Pogačar would also be well equipped with the Colnago Y1Rs and thus clearly better served than with the Colnago V5Rs (which is the only bike in the list that we did not test ourselves in the wind tunnel; our calculation is based on Colnago's specifications of how the V5Rs performs relative to the Y1Rs).
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The machines used in the Tour de France may differ in detail. Of course, we were not yet able to examine last-minute prototypes. Background information on the simulation.
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes for TOUR about technology and training topics and develops testing methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years, they are also used by professional teams.