Fasten your seat belts! The last mountain stage promises pure drama. Short and steep means: The teams will be tempted to bring the lightest possible bikes to the start, as the climbs to the Petit Ballon and Col du Platzerwasel are steeper than average at 8.4 and 8.1 per cent. From a tactical point of view, it is likely that the GC riders will end up fighting each other isolated.
Which bike then actually offers technical advantages depends very much on when the real shootout begins on the 20th stage of the 2023 Tour de France. Do the captains attack each other heroically early in the spirit of a Marco Pantani at the foot of the Petit Ballon? Do they even plan it and make the mechanics work overtime to sand the last grams of paint off the frame (30-100 grams, depending on the paintwork)? Not everyone has naked bikes in their collection like AG2R's bare BMC Teammachine.
One pound of weight saved gives a calculated advantage of eight seconds when climbing the Petit Ballon.
Once again, time trial tyres could be put on. Those who have Conti as a sponsor would then still be very well tyred, as the tyres offer full puncture protection and good grip. Other TT tyres would be very risky downhill in some cases, especially in wet conditions. Calculated advantage related to the climb of the Petit Ballon due to weight advantage and rolling resistance: two seconds.
Simulation: Late attack of the GC riders 2000 metres before the summit of the Col du Platzerwasel and from the summit seven kilometres undulating and slightly downhill to the finish.
Simulated rider: 66 kilograms. Scenario for the simulation: Start 2000 metres before the Col du Platzerwasel, pedalling power on average 400 watts until the finish.
Would the aerodynamic Cervelo S5 give Jonas Vingegaard compared to the team's own climbing bike R5 in this final. Surprise! In a tough late battle on stage 20 of the 2023 Tour de France, the aero bike has the tyre well in front compared to an unaerodynamic lightweight bike! Which wheels will the teams be riding? Will this perhaps tell us who is planning which strategy right from the start?
What are the advantages of time trial tyres in the mountains at the Tour de France? Less weight and less rolling resistance. What speaks against them? Almost everything else.
Time trial tyres (TT tyres) are the lightest tyres, which also makes them interesting for uphill rides. In addition, the rolling resistance is lower, which is not so decisive uphill because the speed is not particularly high. As soon as the pace picks up, however, the rolling resistance should not be underestimated and faster tyres save energy over the whole stage. But it depends very much on details whether TT tyres are a serious option for a mountain stage. According to our measurements and experience, the Conti GP 5000 TT TR in particular are fully-fledged, but thinner rubberised racing tyres that are even suitable for the mountains in terms of grip, puncture protection and ride feel; somewhat firmer and less cushioned than the normal tyres - due to the thinner tread - but definitely suitable for all-round use (were also ridden at Milan-San Remo). Many other TT models either lack puncture protection or have rubber compounds that are too hard to race downhill quickly and safely at the limit. Especially in the wet, many TT are risky because they have less cornering grip and also give less confidence.
How do we know that? Because we have tested TT tyres at the limit, to the point of breaking out on wet roads; because we have punctured and rolled them and turned the innermost out. If you're interested in the details of the rubber freak show, you can find out more here: The Griptest Methodology (only in German).
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in details. Of course, we have not yet been able to examine last-minute prototypes either.
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes for TOUR about technology and training topics and develops testing methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years, they are also used by professional teams.