Vuelta a España 2025TOUR's favourites check

Leon Weidner

 · 23.08.2025

João Almeida and Jonas Vingegaard, two of the favourites to win the Tour of Spain
Photo: Getty Images/Tim de Waele
Who will take the red jersey at the Vuelta a España 2025? TOUR takes a look at the favourites for the Tour of Spain and analyses their chances of winning.

Topics in this article

Vuelta a España 2025: The most important facts in brief

The TOUR favourites by stars

***** Jonas Vingegaard

**** Juan Ayuso, João Almeida

*** Felix Gall, Giulio Ciccone, Antonio Tiberi

** Giulio Pellizzari

* Mikel Landa, Ben O'Connor, Jai Hindley, Egan Bernal, Matteo Jorgenson


* The more stars a driver receives, the higher his chances are rated


The favourites in the TOUR-Check

***** Jonas Vingegaard (Team Visma | Lease a Bike)

Jonas Vingegaard is the top favourite to win the Tour of SpainPhoto: Getty Images/Jean CatuffeJonas Vingegaard is the top favourite to win the Tour of Spain

Jonas Vingegaard goes into the 2025 Vuelta a España as the clear favourite. The Dane from Team Visma | Lease a Bike comes to the Tour of Spain in strong form after finishing second behind Tadej Pogačar at the Tour de France. In France, Vingegaard showed that he is currently the second-best tour rider in the world and clearly superior to all other competitors. As Pogačar will not be at the start of the Vuelta, Vingegaard is the clear favourite for overall victory. The team is supporting its captain with a strong squad. Matteo Jorgenson could probably ride for the overall classification himself, but will primarily work for his captain. Victor Campenaerts, who shone in the Tour de France with impressive performances on the climbs, will also be part of the team, as will Sepp Kuss. The team is completed by Axel Zingle, Wilco Keldermann, Ben Tulett and Dylan van Baarle.

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**** Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates - XRG)

Juan Ayuso wants to make a fresh start after the unsuccessful Giro d'ItaliaPhoto: Getty Images/Sara CavalliniJuan Ayuso wants to make a fresh start after the unsuccessful Giro d'Italia
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The 22-year-old Spaniard Juan Ayuso from UAE Team Emirates - XRG comes to his home tour with mixed feelings. At his last Grand Tour, the Giro d'Italia in May, he had to abandon the race prematurely. Ayuso started the Giro with great ambitions, but a series of unfortunate accidents - including a bee sting - forced him to retire. After a long break from racing, he only returned to racing on 2 August at the Clásica San Sebastián. The big question for Ayuso is whether he can build on his performance from 2022, when he finished on the podium on his Vuelta debut. There could also be tensions within UAE Team Emirates - XRG regarding the team hierarchy, as João Almeida will be another strong tour rider at the start. However, there are doubts about Almeida's form following his rib fracture at the Tour de France. For Ayuso, the Vuelta offers the chance of a fresh start after two consecutive Grand Tours. If he reaches his best form, he will undoubtedly be one of the contenders for a podium place in Madrid.

**** João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates - XRG)

The crash at the Tour of France raises questions about the form of Portugal's João AlmeidaPhoto: Getty Images/Tim de WaeleThe crash at the Tour of France raises questions about the form of Portugal's João Almeida

This year, the Portuguese rider has already won the overall classifications at the Tour of the Basque Country, the Tour de Suisse and the Tour de Romandie. He also secured a stage win at Paris-Nice, where he was able to catch Jonas Vingegaard in the final metres. However, his Tour de France ended prematurely: after a heavy crash on the seventh stage, Almeida suffered a broken rib. Despite the injury, he tried to support his team-mate Tadej Pogačar in the fight for the yellow jersey, but had to abandon on the ninth stage. The big unknown for Almeida is his current state of form after the injury. UAE Team Emirates - XRG is optimistic, but it remains to be seen whether he is actually at one hundred per cent. Another question concerns the team hierarchy: Juan Ayuso is another strong rider in the line-up. It remains to be seen whether there will be an internal power struggle between the two or whether the team will make a clear division of roles. Despite these question marks, Almeida is one of the top favourites for the Vuelta due to his abilities and his successes this season.

*** Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team)

After the successful Tour de France, Felix Gall will now also start the Tour of Spain with high expectationsPhoto: Getty Images/Tim de WaeleAfter the successful Tour de France, Felix Gall will now also start the Tour of Spain with high expectations

Felix Gall from Team Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale arrives at the Vuelta in excellent form. The 27-year-old Austrian finished fifth overall in the Tour de France and put in a particularly strong performance in the third week. At the start of the Tour, Gall showed on the Mûr-de-Bretagne that he is also competitive on short, steep climbs - a profile that will be encountered several times at this year's Vuelta. However, Gall shows his true strength in the high mountains, where his characteristic, swinging riding style is easily recognisable. Team Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale has proven several times this season that it is ready to take control of races. Given the brutal course profile of the 2025 Vuelta, Gall should be looking forward to the race with anticipation. A top place in the overall standings would crown his strong 2025 season and represent a significant success for both him personally and his team. With his climbing form, he is definitely one of the riders to keep an eye on.

*** Giulio Ciccone (Lidl - Trek)

Giulio Ciccone won the classic in San Sebastián impressively this year - so steep climbs should suit himPhoto: Getty Images/Antonio BaixauliGiulio Ciccone won the classic in San Sebastián impressively this year - so steep climbs should suit him

The Lidl - Trek rider has never finished in the top ten of a Grand Tour and has yet to finish a Vuelta a España. On the other hand, the rider from Abruzzo has been in excellent form over the past month, securing his first WorldTour classic and a stage win at the Vuelta a Burgos. In response to his recent winning streak in Spain, Ciccone's odds have dropped with the bookmakers and are now around 16/1. The 30-year-old has taken three victories this year, including the prestigious win at the Clásica San Sebastián. However, he had to abandon at the Giro d'Italia, but was able to shine at Liège-Bastogne-Liège with second place. Overall, the Italian could ensure a good position in the general classification.

*** Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain - Victorious)

Antonio Tiberi has recovered well from his crash at the Tour of Italy and now wants to go all out at the VueltaPhoto: Getty Images/Sara CavalliniAntonio Tiberi has recovered well from his crash at the Tour of Italy and now wants to go all out at the Vuelta

It was a year of highs and lows for Antonio Tiberi. He got off to a strong start with a podium finish at Tirreno-Adriatico. A series of crashes and setbacks affected his preparation for the Giro. There he seemed to be on track to finish in the top five, but a crash on stage 14 dropped him down the general classification in the mountainous final stage. He seems to have recovered from this disappointing Giro finish. A recent second place at the Tour de Pologne shows good form, which was emphasised by an excellent time trial performance.

** Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe)

Giulio Pellizzari shone at the Giro d'Italia after the retirement of his captain Primož RogličPhoto: Getty Images/Dario BelingheriGiulio Pellizzari shone at the Giro d'Italia after the retirement of his captain Primož Roglič

Giulio Pellizzari took over the captaincy after Primož Roglič had to abandon the Giro in May. Despite losing minutes in support of the Slovenian, the 21-year-old Italian rode to sixth place overall, leaving many to ponder what might have been possible had he been captain from the start. Now it's time to find out. Yes, Jai Hindley is also at the Vuelta, but Pellizzari's Giro performance must give the Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe team some confidence for this race. He recently outsprinted his Australian team-mate at the Vuelta a Burgos, which could be a sign of things to come at the Tour of Spain.

* The outsiders

The Basque cult rider Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step) has often been among the front runners in three-week races. Apart from a few crashes, including this year's at the Giro when he fractured his vertebrae, the Soudal Quick-Step captain has been one of the most consistent riders. It remains to be seen what level he will be at after his serious injury at the Vuelta. At the recent Tour of Burgos, he only managed 18th place in the overall standings.

Ben O'Connor (Team Jayco AlUla), on the other hand, finished second in last year's Tour of Spain. However, after a fabulous 2024 season, O'Connor is finding it difficult to maintain his form from last year. The Australian slipped out of the top 10 at the 2025 Tour de France shortly before the end of the race. However, O'Connor should not be written off completely, as he could still spring a surprise.

Egan Bernal (INEOS Grenadiers) has already won the Giro and the Tour. The Vuelta a España is the only Grand Tour missing from Bernal's collection. However, it has been four years since his last Grand Tour victory and he has had to overcome a serious injury to get back into Grand Tour contention. There were signs of the old Bernal at the Giro d'Italia this year, with the Colombian riding aggressively on the mountain top finishes in the first half of the race. Overall, he finished in seventh place and could move up even further in the Tour of Spain.

Jai Hindley (Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe) has also already won a three-week tour with the Giro d'Italia 2022. However, the Red Bull rider had mixed results this year, with several top ten finishes before an early Giro withdrawal following a heavy crash. Since then, Hindley has only taken part in the Tour of Burgos, a result that was more bad than good with 25th place in the final standings. With Pellizzari, the team's squad also includes a rider who is currently in very good form.

For Matteo Jorgenson (Team Visma | Lease a Bike), his role should be clear: he is Jonas Vingegaard's helper. However, it has only been two years since a brave American helper won the Vuelta for Visma | Lease a Bike. Idaho's Matteo Jorgenson will be dreaming of the same scenario as Sepp Kuss when he starts his first Vuelta next weekend. He showed once again this year that he is capable of riding at the front. Jorgenson won Paris-Nice ahead of this year's Tour bronze medallist Florian Lipowitz. Should Vingegaard weaken, the American will be on hand.

Leon Weidner

Working student

Leon Philip Weidner is from Cologne, follows professional cycling closely and is a passionate road cyclist himself. In addition to long kilometres in the saddle of a road bike, he also regularly rides a time trial bike - always with his eye on the next triathlon. His expertise combines sporting practice with knowledge of the scene.

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