Vuelta a Espana 2024 - the TOUR favourites by stars
* Mattias Skjelmose, Michael Woods, David Gaudu, Thymen Arensman, Lorenzo Fortunato
** Enric Mas, Richard Carapaz, Ben O'Connor, Guillaume Martin
*** Sepp Kuss, Carlos Rodriguez, Mikel Landa
**** Adam Yates, Joao Almeida
***** Primoz Roglic
The Vuelta favourites in the TOUR-Check
Roglic scores with experience and a strong team
The Vuelta Espana 2024 has it all. In several respects. Not only is this year's route probably the most difficult of all three Grand Tours: mountain finishes and classification-relevant stages as far as the eye can see. The Tour of Spain has been heavily manned by the teams. Everything that can climb is there. Apart from Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel. This means that the three strongest cyclists of their time are missing. But for the race, this means that the list of potential winners and podium candidates is all the longer. It is difficult to predict who will end up at the top of the podium due to the power vacuum and the high concentration of riders behind them. We'll try anyway.
Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) goes into the race as the top favourite - at least among the bookmakers. The first Slovenian Grand Tour winner in history has won the Vuelta three times in a row (2019-2021), as well as the Giro last year with a 14-second lead over Geraint Thomas. And a fourth victory in the Tour of Spain was also within reach the previous year, when he was still wearing the Jumbo-Visma jersey - before he, like Vingegaard, was thwarted by the team so that their noble helper Sepp Kuss could ride to the much-acclaimed and widely demanded victory.
What speaks in Roglic's favour in addition to his experience: Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe has provided him with an extremely strong team, which should be much more powerful than in the Tour de France, at least on the climbs. Aleksandr Vlasov and Daniel Martinez are there as noble helpers and could also take over the captain's role should Roglic no longer be able to do so for whatever reason. In addition, Florian Lipowitz, Giovanni Aleotti and Roger Adria are three other riders who can provide good service in the mountains.
Kuss captain this time, but not with top starting position
What speaks against Roglic: The susceptibility to crashes that recently caused him to crash out of the Tour. The 34-year-old simply has to come off his bike too often for a safe tip. Whether it is ultimately just bad luck or poor bike control at this level is ultimately not clear beyond doubt. But this fact alone scratches the status of the current fourth-best tour rider. There is also a small question mark over his condition, as it remains to be seen to what extent the fracture in his lumbar vertebrae - sustained in the crash that took him out of the Tour just over a month ago - has limited him in his preparation and may still do so in the race.
What also doesn't speak in Roglic's favour is the strong competition. In the absence of their captains, the best noble helpers on the scene, who in other teams would not only go into a three-week national tour with their own ambitions in exceptional situations, are lurking for their chances. In addition to Kuss, this includes Adam Yates and Joao Almeida (both UAE Team Emirates), but also Mikel Landa (Soudal - Quick Step).
Sepp Kuss will start as the defending champion, but does not necessarily have the best prospects of repeating his success. Although the US American goes into the Vuelta having won the Tour of Burgos, the preparatory race was not nearly as well-staffed as the Tour of Spain itself. For the 29-year-old, the pressure of captaining a grand tour for the first time should not be underestimated. He has a good team at his side. Wout van Aert, Dylan van Baarle, for the mountains the always reliable Steven Kruijswijk and Robert Gesink as well as Attila Valter. On top of this comes super talent Cian Uijtdebroeks, who in his first year at Visma was unable to deliver what his forced transfer from Bora to the Netherlands in the winter had led us to expect. Kuss' command is therefore followed by an elite selection. However, the man who seems to have been born to play the role of a noble helper should not have too much respect for the big names. He has to leave them behind to have a chance of reaching the podium.
Yates and Almeida each a candidate for victory at the Vuelta - and as a duo?
Yates and Almeida will also have to find one, or rather: come to an agreement. Both of them should be rated higher than Kuss. There is no direct comparison with Roglic, as they have not competed against each other in the captain's role in the recent past. However, there is a lot at stake for both of them: they have the opportunity to prove that they can win a Grand Tour in the absence of Pogacar. Geraint Thomas claimed in his podcast that the Slovenian only cancelled the Vuelta, and with it the huge opportunity to win all three Grand Tours in one year, in order to keep spirits high in the team and give his aides a chance for their own success.
Yates has finished in the top 10 in all of his last five Grand Tours - four of them the Tour, one the Vuelta - apart from the one he rode in the Mitchelton-Scott jersey with an inferior team, and even finished third in last year's Tour. Almeida can even boast a top 10 result in every three-week race he has completed. That's six out of seven starts. Both will start the Vuelta as co-captains. There will only be a clear division of roles if one of them suffers a major weakness.
The question is whether that will happen. Both have prepared themselves highly professionally and conscientiously for their big opportunity - their first victory in a Grand Tour. And they have perhaps the strongest team of the tour at their side. Marc Soler, Pavel Sivakov, Brandon McNulty, Jay Vine, plus the young high-flyer Isaac del Toro. This third row is so strong that even for them a top 10 result in the overall standings is still possible.
Ayuso sorted out
If Yates and Almeida were in different teams, they would both be the top favourites for overall victory. But in one team? Does one begrudge the other success? For the 32-year-old Briton, it may be his last chance to win the Vuelta, Giro or Tour. Almeida, 26, presumably still has his best years ahead of him. However, this year's Tour de Suisse proved that the two can also harmonise perfectly. The duo finished the last four of the eight stages with a double victory. Yates came out on top twice and Almeida twice. The overall classification then went to the older rider by 22 seconds. Perhaps not particularly likely, but by no means impossible, that the Vuelta will also see a UAE double victory, in whatever order.
Originally, Juan Ayuso was also on the list for the Vuelta; he would have made a trio out of the captain's duo. However, as the young Spaniard has problems subordinating himself, which he recently proved at the Tour, the team management removed him from the line-up to avoid unrest. However, this is not the official reason given by the team and rider. They cite Spanier's lack of form, but after the disputes between Almeida and the youngster, this is probably only half the truth.
Landa from captain to helper and back - and in the fight for the title of best Spaniard at the Vuelta
One man who also shone in the role of noble helper recently was Mikel Landa. The 34-year-old Spaniard now has 21 Grand Tours under his belt. He also captained most of them - until he switched to Remco Evenepoel's team before the season to support the young Belgian as an experienced support rider. Landa did this job at the Tour de France with flying colours. As well as providing invaluable assistance to the Tour bronze medallist, Landa himself finished fifth - only Almeida and the big three finished ahead of him.
For the Spaniard, it was the third-best result in the Tour of France of his career. He had previously finished fourth twice - as captain. He now takes on this role again in Spain. And if he can maintain his form, he too can attack at the top.
Landa will be battling it out with Carlos Rodriguez for the title of best Spaniard in his home race. The 23-year-old is likely to start the race as sole captain for Ineos Grenadiers or at least share the role with Thymen Arensman. The Spaniard has become a safe bet in the last three years with three top 10 results in the Grand Tours. But his Dutch team-mate also has three single-digit results to his name. Including sixth place at the Giro this year. Shortly afterwards, Rodriguez finished seventh in the Tour.
Carapaz, Mas, Skjelmose and co. - a long list of challengers
Behind these six pros, many more are likely to be hoping for the podium, or at least the top 5. They are led by the eternal Spanish hope for the first home victory since Alberto Contador (2014), Enric Mas (Movistar). However, the now 29-year-old seems to be past his prime and second place, like in 2022, 2021 and 2018, seems a long way off. Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), who always starts the race very optimistically and then usually disappoints, has once again called for the podium with Felix Gall as vice-captain at his side, but shouldn't be too disillusioned when he moves to his Australian homeland to Jayco AlUla in winter and doesn't have a photo with him on the podium in Madrid.
Richard Carapaz (EF Education EasyPost) is also only a contender for the top 10 despite a strong final week of the Tour, which earned him the mountains jersey and the title of the most aggressive rider. With his victory at the 2019 Giro, the Ecuadorian is one of only five Grand Tour winners in the race (alongside Kuss, Roglic, Geoghegan Hart and Quintana). However, at the age of 31, he seems to be finding it increasingly difficult to maintain the necessary consistency for the very front over three weeks. He can't expect miracles from his team either.
This also applies to Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) and Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana Qazaqstan Team), all of whom can at least finish in the top 10.
Vuelta 2024: Dark Horse Lidl-Trek
Another exciting question is what Lidl-Trek can do. With Giulio Ciccone, Mattias Skjelmose and Tao Geoghegan Hart, there are three potential top 5 finishers in the squad. The Italian Ciccone is still waiting for his first top 10 result, but was at least close in eleventh place at this Tour. However, the 29-year-old tends to be more of a man for the mountain jersey and stage wins. He has already won the mountains classification at the Tour and Giro, and could complete this triple in Spain.
Geoghegan Hart is already a Grand Tour winner. However, the 29-year-old Brit has never really got going again since his crash at the 2023 Giro, where he broke his pelvis. He did not finish his last two tours - Burgos and Criterum du Dauphine.
And then there is Mattias Skjelmose. The Dane celebrated his breakthrough last year by winning the Tour de Suisse and made a name for himself as a cyclist for the first time at the age of 22. This season, however, his development seemed to stagnate somewhat. Fourth place at Paris-Nice, three in the Basque Country and at the Tour de Suisse are also on the books, but he was unable to really stand out. Perhaps because the highlight of the season was not planned until August and September. Skjelmose is likely to be the biggest trump card in the Lidl-Trek front three. But it will still be difficult for the podium.
