***** Tadej Pogacar
*** Remco Evenepoel
** Enric Mas, Aleksandr Vlasov, Matteo Jorgenson, Marc Hirschi, Ben Healy
* Florian Lipowitz, Adam Yates, Simon Yates, Tom Skujins, Michael Woods, Neilson Powless
* The more stars a driver receives, the stronger he is rated
Strade Bianche, Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Tour of Catalonia, Giro d'Italia, Tour de France, Road World Championships: most professional cyclists dream of such victories for a whole career and are unable to achieve them. Tadej Pogacar has achieved them all in one season. The Slovenian is almost untouchable at the moment and is in a league of his own. At the World Cycling Championships in Zurich, Pogacar set off 100 kilometres before the finish - normally a suicide mission, but the Slovenian pulled it off successfully. It was a similar picture at the Giro dell'Emilia last weekend. There, Pogacar took the lead around 40 kilometres before the finish, forced the pace and triumphed. At the Tour of Lombardy, Pogacar can probably only be stopped by a defect, a crash or a hunger pang. Otherwise, it would be a big surprise if he didn't finish at the top of the podium on Saturday. At the age of 26, the cycling superstar would then have already claimed his fourth victory in the race of the falling leaves - he would only need one more to equal Italian cycling legend Fausto Coppi and end an already historic season with another bang.
The reason we haven't awarded four stars is because the difference in performance between Pogacar and the rest of the peloton is so striking. Remco Evenepoel is one of the candidates who should at least be in contention for the podium. However, the Belgian has not been in the form of his Olympic victory at the beginning of August. If he had, he would even be someone who could put Pogacar in trouble. Evenepoel does not have the best memories of the Tour of Lombardy. In 2020, he crashed off a bridge on the descent of the Colma di Sormano, which is being ridden in the opposite direction this year, and suffered a broken hip. In his two other participations, he finished 19th (2021) and 9th (2023).
The Spaniard likes to blossom as the season draws to a close. He already proved this in 2022 by winning the Giro dell'Emilia and finishing second behind Pogacar in the Tour of Lombardy. The Spaniard, who is often hesitant, is not expected to attack in the race. He would benefit much more from a long, hard ride. Mas is in good form for the Tour of Lombardy - he recently finished eighth at the World Championships and the Giro dell'Emilia.
Vlasov finished fourth in last year's Tour of Lombardy and even third in 2020. The Russian likes long and difficult races and, alongside the in-form Florian Lipowitz and Roger Adria, is probably Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe's strongest card on Saturday.
The US-American has made a huge leap in performance after switching from Movistar to Visma | Lease a Bike. The 25-year-old was among the front runners in both the tours (winner of Paris-Nice and eighth in the Tour de France) and the classics (winner of the Tour of Flanders). Jorgenson finished 23rd in his Lombardy debut last year and should be able to finish in the top 10 this year.
Starting with the Clasica San Sebastian, the Swiss rider won six one-day races from mid-August onwards. However, the absolute world elite were often not at the start. At the Tour of Lombardy, he is likely to be the first rider to step into the breach if Tadej Pogacar has a problem. Otherwise, he will have to put himself at the service of his boss. However, if he sets off again well before the finish, Hirschi may still be in with a chance of a top placing.
As always, the Irishman is a candidate for an early attack. At the most recent World Championships, he once again tried to attack from a long way out - and ended up in seventh place. Together with Neilson Powless, the 24-year-old leads a strong EF Education EasyPost team, which also includes the German Georg Steinhauser.
Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) was able to maintain his good form from the Vuelta a Espana, where he finished seventh as a helper, and rode in second place behind Pogacar for a long time at the Giro dell'Emilia. He was only caught on the final ascent to the pilgrimage church of San Luca. For the 24-year-old, his first Monument is all about gaining experience. If he gets through well, he is likely to finish in the top 10.
While Il Lombardia is new territory for Lipowitz, the Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates) has already finished third on the podium there in 2021. However, the Briton will probably have to work for Pogacar and hardly have any freedom. In contrast, his twin brother Simon Yates Team Jayco-AlUla as captain. The 32-year-old recently finished fifth in the Giro dell'Emilia and is also aiming for a top placing in Lombardy, just like the surprise fourth-placed rider in the World Championships Toms Skujins (Lidl-Trek), the strong climber Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech) and Neilson Powless (EF Education EasyPost - most recently winner of Gran Piemonte).