The ride through the Massif Central begins flat, but steadily increases towards the finale, in which three small mountains stand in the way, the last of which is a third category climb (2.8 km at 5.4 %). The stage is also the longest of the Tour.
We will certainly see breakaways. Whether they make it through depends, as always, on what the peloton does. The favourites for the overall classification will try to ride at the front, they are also in contention for the stage win.
The last climb is likely to be decisive. It is not particularly steep, but a hearty attack will put pure sprinters in trouble. Classics chasers will have an advantage - be it from the thinned-out peloton or from a breakaway group.
From the last hilltop, the route drops the remaining 7.1 kilometres towards the finish. A lead can be defended here, as Wout van Aert showed in the men's final stage in Paris.
The key climb of the race is not very steep, but sufficient to launch an attack.
In our simulation of the day, we let a rider attack at the start of the final climb and simulate the riding time to the finish in Guéret.
The Cervélo S5 also shines on this terrain. With a weight close to the UCI limit and the best aerodynamics, the bike from Team Visma leads the way in our simulation. Marianne Vos and Pauline Ferrand-Prévot therefore have the best card. Vos should be able to cope with the length of the climb. Ferrand-Prévot, who is lighter, is used to such long efforts from mountain biking, is very fast uphill and is also a very good technician on the bike, which could help on the descent towards the finish. Visma | Lease a Bike is therefore in a good starting position both technically and tactically.
Completely non-aerodynamic bikes are 17 seconds behind at the finish line. They will probably no longer play a role in the future, as there are hardly any application scenarios in which they offer an advantage.
The table shows the riding times for the attack on the final climb and its extension to the finish. Aero bikes ride in front. However, the small weight advantage of the Cervélo gives it an extra two seconds in the attack.
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in some details. Of course, we have not yet been able to analyse last-minute prototypes. Background to the simulation.
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes about technical and training topics for TOUR and develops test methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years and they are also used by professional teams.