The start of the Tour de France Femmes is short and crisp: just 78.8 kilometres is a very short race for the professional female athletes.
This means that the racing will be very aggressive and that it will be almost impossible to control what happens. Everyone is hot, everyone has energy from start to finish. It should therefore be a very hectic and fast race.
The toughest obstacle on the course is the Côte de Cadoudal, 1.7 kilometres long with an average gradient of 6.2%. It's certainly not a monster hill, but how selective a climb is depends not only on its length and steepness, but also on the speed at which the riders tackle the cliff. The climb has to be tackled three times on the final laps in Plumelec, with the last passage being the finish. The race will therefore probably be decided on the final climb - either in the style of an elimination race or as a sprint from a small group.
Can female sprinters hold their own in such a final? At the Milan-San Remo Donne, held for the first time in 2025, with a shorter course but the same final as the men's race, the best sprinter in the world at the moment, Lorena Wiebes, was able to stay in the leading group on the Poggio, the pre-selective climb. With the help of her team-mate Lotte Kopecky, she caught Elisa Longo Borghini, who was able to break away from the 15-strong group at the end of the descent, and then won the sprint of the group - albeit on flat terrain.
On the first stage of the Tour, however, the finish is at the end of the climb, so there will be a shootout on the climb. The situation is therefore not comparable to the Poggio. It is more likely that a puncheur will prevail, such as Lotte Kopecky. But a strong sprinter also has a chance.
But now to the technology. Which material promises advantages for this type of race? Should the bikes be as light as possible or is aerodynamics more important? Anyone who has read the tech briefings for the men's tour will have surmised that aerodynamics trumps weight here too.
However, there are differences between men and women: On average, women are significantly lighter and also have slightly less power in relation to their weight than men. However, the same rules apply to the bikes: a minimum weight of 6.8 kilograms is also set for women. This means that the bikes are heavier in relation to body weight than the men's, which means that weight differences in the bikes have a relatively greater effect on women.
So which bike is the fastest under these slightly different circumstances? We simulate the elimination ride after starting on the last climb.
The Cervélo S5 wins the uphill sprint in our simulation. The key data is familiar from the men's tour: the S5 has top aerodynamics, but can be brought close to the 6.8-kilo limit with a 1x12 drivetrain. Former champion Marianne Vos should be delighted to be riding the fastest bike on paper. We'll see if it's enough to win.
The table shows: In the uphill sprint, the bikes with low weight and aerodynamic design lead the way.
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes about technical and training topics for TOUR and develops test methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years and they are also used by professional teams.