Tour de France 2024 - 20th stage: Nice - Col de la Couillole | 132.8 kilometres
Act two of the grand finale: the riders have to overcome 4600 metres of altitude on the 20th stage - more than on any other stage of this Tour de France. What's more, the route is short. It's either up or down. We expect the favourites for the overall classification to decide the stage among themselves. This Tour is ridden so fast across the board that breakaways have little opportunity to show themselves.
The peaks are lower today than the day before. This means more oxygen, but also more heat in the valleys. Pre-fatigue will play a part in deciding who will be able to show off today and how much.
But now to the technology: The hills are numerous, but not very steep, so there is once again the option of saving some weight with simple drives and improving the aerodynamics, which is a factor on the descents. However, there are hardly any flat sections through the valley today. The decision will presumably be made on the final climb.
We simulate the riding times for the final climb assuming that this is ridden at full speed. What are the riding times under these conditions and which wheel has the front tyre?
To make our race for the constructors' championship more exciting, we also have an "illegal" bike competing virtually that is one kilogram below the UCI minimum weight, our "Ultralight Custom Bike" (5.8 kg). A hobby rider with enough money could put together such a bike at any time. Aerodynamically, we have positioned this bike at the level of the Cervelo R5.
The result of this forbidden light bike can also be read as answering the question of what effect a one-kilogram lighter rider weight would have. After all, it is irrelevant for the riding time where the weight is saved. Which is why the uphill riders are pretty thin. The TV picture doesn't show this as clearly as you experience it on the spot when you look for yourself. The riders are not just thin. They are extremely thin.
Number of the day: 25 seconds
Our calculation shows: One kilogram less system weight adds 25 seconds on the final climb of the 20th stage (comparison of custom bike and Cervelo R5).
Of the bikes that are actually at the start, the Tarmac SL 8 is the fastest in our simulation. As the true weights of the starting bikes are not very far apart, the distortion in the result due to the wheel technology is relatively small.
New mountain best times: What part does bike technology play?
Uphill, the technique has limited influence beyond the weight. In our opinion, the fact that Pogacar and Vingegaard set new best times uphill is only partly due to the wheels. The improved tyres - in some cases even tubeless time trial tyres are used on the climbs - have a maximum effect on the final climb that is comparable to a kilogram less weight, i.e. a further 25 seconds. The greatly improved aerodynamics compared to earlier times bring a similar advantage. This means that a modern bike with the same weight is around one minute faster on the final climb than in the days of Lance Armstrong.
All other technical tricks have less potential to turn the clock. This means that the differences are essentially caused by the rider and the riding style, rather than the bike - uphill, mind you. On the flat, aerodynamics and tyres have a greater effect.
The (almost) entire field at a glance*
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in some details. Of course, we have also not yet been able to analyse last-minute prototypes. Background to the simulation.
Table: The calculated riding times on the final climb of stage 20. The classification is led by a bike that is not taking part at all: Our "Ultralight Custom Bike" is representative of a bike that is one kilo under the UCI limit.
Our expert
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes about technical and training topics for TOUR and develops test methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years and they are also used by professional teams.
