Tour de France 2024 - 19th stage: Embrun - Isola 2000 | 144.6 kilometres
Curtain up for the grand finale in three acts. Act one: climbing to the sky. The riders have 4400 metres of climbing ahead of them, spread over just 145 kilometres. Only the 20th stage is more intense, with 4600 metres of climbing over 133 kilometres. But on the 19th stage, the climbs are longer and the altitude is higher, as the Cime de la Bonette is the highest tarmac road in France.
The stage has the potential to shake up the overall classification. None of the favourites for yellow can afford a moment of weakness, as this would result in a drop in the classification. Is this the stage that Visma | Lease a Bike wants to use for a big attack on yellow? Probably yes. But of course the plan also includes legs and opportunities.
Long elimination race expected
The top teams will ride at the front from the start, initiate a long breakaway and wait for potential weak moments from their opponents. The question will be how well the helpers get over the first climb and who of the team is still at the front on the Cime.
The captains could really use some team power there, as there are 40 kilometres of downhill before the final climb, where real time differences can be made. The descent is narrow and technical in the upper section, with high-speed passages but also pedalling sections. Bike handling, motor power and aerodynamics can make a difference. And one slip-up can end the race.
If the captains are already among themselves before the Cime, very aggressive scenarios are conceivable. The steep section towards the end of the Cime is the kind of kicker that Pogacar loves. An attack like on the Galibier would be possible. The descent would then be of enormous importance and at the end there is a final climb of 16 kilometres.
Another key question will be who can cope best with the altitude. Above 2400 metres, the effects of the thin air are pronounced. Although the teams prepare themselves with high-altitude chains, none of the favourites have had a trouble-free start to the Tour. So far, this ability has only been tested on the 2642 metre high Galibier on the fourth stage.
The conditions for absolute high voltage are therefore set. What does that mean for the material? What can the teams tweak to make the ride over the mountain giants faster?
Logically, the teams will try to put the lightest possible bikes on the start line in view of the climbing. But the minimum weight of 6.8 kg stipulated by the UCI is not utilised by many. Sponsor obligations prevent the bikes from being brought up to this weight with tuning parts. The average of our list is 7.3 kg.
So the aerodynamic adjustment screw remains. If you have two bikes to choose from, you still have to decide which one to go for. Will Vingegaard once again opt for the aerodynamic S5 with 1x12 set-up to make his aero bike as light as possible, as he did on the Galibier? If the "isolated captain" scenario is deemed likely for Visma, this would be the means of choice to be best prepared for the descent in the potential head-to-head battle with Pogacar and Evenepoel. We know from previous calculations that aerodynamics are only no longer a factor in steep sections of 9 per cent and more.
Technically, Vingegaard is a very good descender. So far, he has lost time in the flatter sections of the descents. From his point of view, this speaks in favour of making full use of the aerodynamics card. Especially as Vingegaard has to attack to win the Tour.
To get to the bottom of the material issue, we simulate an attack 900 metres before the Cime and a solo ride to the finish.
Number of the day: 1:50 minutes
Vingegaard saves 1:50 minutes by ditching the mountain bike and riding the fast S5 over the mountains. In the simulation, we assume that he chooses a 1x12 set-up and thus brings the machine to 7.3 kg. Curiously, the two bikes that Vingegaard has at his disposal cover the entire spectrum of our scenario.
The (almost) entire field at a glance*
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in some details. Of course, we have not yet been able to analyse last-minute prototypes. Background to the simulation.
Table: In our simulation of stage 19, the Cervelo S5 with a 1x12 set-up is mathematically the fastest bike.
Our expert
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes about technical and training topics for TOUR and develops test methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years and they are also used by professional teams.
