Tour de France 2025 - 16th stage: Montpellier - Mont Ventoux | 171.5 kilometres | 2950 vertical metres
After the rest day, the riders will have the opportunity to roll in for 150 kilometres before the mighty Mont Ventoux rises up. Given the way the riders have ridden so far, we can assume that there will be attacks early on, despite the foreseeable end of the stage.
However, those who try to escape will probably not be the first to cross the finish line. Tadej Pogačar will certainly want to be celebrated as the winner on this iconic climb and UAE in the form of Nils Politt will keep the breakaway on a long leash. The team will probably escort Tadej Pogačar until the flatter passage at Chalet Reynard. As soon as the climb picks up again afterwards, the attack could come at any time.
If a rider is feeling very good and wants to attack in the classification, the steeper start to the climb is a good place to start. The longer the attack, the bigger the possible lead! Does Jonas Vingegaard have a great day and the legs for a bold attack?
In our simulation of the day, we give our avatar the superpowers of Tadej Pogačar and see what riding times this results in for the various bikes.
The number of the day: four seconds
The Cervélo S5 is four seconds ahead of the Tarmac SL8 in our scenario - thanks to better aerodynamics. Depending on how much the wind blows, aerodynamics become even more important in the bare upper part of the mountain, although the riding speed is not particularly high.
The (almost) complete field at a glance*
The table shows the journey times for the final ascent with the various bikes. As outlined here, the average ascent rate would be 1909 metres in altitude per hour. As expected, the light bikes are at the top, with aerodynamics tipping the scales.
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in some details. Of course, we have not yet been able to analyse last-minute prototypes. Background to the simulation.
Review of the 15th stage
Tim Wellens' victory on stage 15 emphasises the importance of aerodynamics for a long escape. But timing is also important. The Belgian rider skilfully launched his attack in a blind spot and pushed hard in the final bend, whereas his direct pursuer preferred to miss a kick on an incline so as not to touch down. Wellens then accelerated his bike to over 80 km/h, obviously had the gear reserves to keep up even at high speeds and adopted a perfect position.
There were 43 kilometres of slightly downhill racing to the finish and Wellens managed to extend his lead quickly and continuously after a small gap had been opened. The ingredients for this: unconditional determination, a very good position on the bike - and one of the fastest bikes in the peloton as a base.
This situation showed in exemplary fashion that an aero bike is not just a crazy idea. Good aerodynamics are the key to being able to prevail against several pursuers. However, it is also true that they were not in agreement. Only then is such a long escape possible.
Victor Campenaerts, who has a remarkably small frontal area, was visibly even more aerodynamic on his bike. The Visma speed rider stole away from the escape group and slipped through the wind visibly more effectively than the rest of the group, which was also helped by the unusual time trial helmet that the good time trialist almost always wears. The fact that he was on one of the fastest bikes, the Cervélo S5, also helped.
Our expert
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes about technical and training topics for TOUR and develops test methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years and they are also used by professional teams.
