The first of three mountain stages in a row consists of 120 kilometres, spiced up with a moderate climb and a big chunk at the end: 17.4 kilometres with an average of 7.1 per cent lead to the finish on the Grand Colombier.
On paper, the stair-like climb is not super difficult, slipstreaming is an issue here. But there are steep passages of 12 per cent in the first and second sections. The classification riders will come into the climb relatively fresh, which speaks against early attacks on the 13th stage of the Tour de France 2023. They will probably test themselves and only really attack when a weakness is recognisable.
If the duel between Vingegaard and Pogacar remains cold, it will come down to a late attack, which is Pogacar's speciality. He doesn't have to worry about his bike, he always rides the same setup, which our reporters Jens Klötzer and Julian Schultz had on the hook of their scales: 7.42 kg are set for the Colnago V4 RS.
Jonas Vingegaard has two bikes and many wheels to choose from and will probably favour his Cervelo R5 over the S5 given the final climb. According to our calculations, however, the S5 would be faster - regardless of whether you look at the climb as a whole or just the final. Parallel to the GC riders' race, there will probably be a breakaway race for the stage win, should their lead be sufficient.
Our simulation of the day includes the entire final climb. Which team would have the fastest racing bike for a climber on the run?
The fastest bike for breakaways, 25 seconds ahead of the slowest bike, is the Giant Propel - a good compromise between light and aerodynamic. We assume a smooth ride with 6.2 W/kg. The even lighter TCR model, which meets the UCI weight limit - also according to our observations on site - would be slower.
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in some details. Of course, we have also not yet been able to analyse last-minute prototypes. Background to the simulation.
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes about technical and training topics for TOUR and develops test methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years and they are also used by professional teams.