An exchange of blows in the high mountains is on the cards. The most striking mountain of the day is the Tourmalet, which is climbed after two thirds of the stage. From the summit, however, it is still a long 47 kilometres to the finish, the mountain arrival in Cauterets-Cambasque. A headwind is possible in the valley before the final climb, the final climb itself is relatively easy except for the final kilometres, which are steeper. The GC favourites will probably not attack on the Tourmalet, but will keep the pace so high that breakaways have no chance. If this happens, the race will come down to a short battle between the favourites on the last kilometres of the final climb.
Which bike would be the right one? Tadej Pogacar has no choice, his Colnago V4 RS is set. The mechanics are trying to bring his bike even closer to the 6.8 kilogram minimum weight with a few upgrades such as tuning blades and lighter brake discs with carbon fibre spiders. We have not yet had the bike tuned in this way on the scales, but we estimate the leeway provided by these measures to be relatively small. Jonas Vingegaard, on the other hand, has the choice for the 6th stage of the Tour de France 2023: S5 or R5? Mountain machine or aero flounder? Jumbo-Visma is also open to further experiments. Vingegaard started the first stage with a 1x12 drivetrain, which saves weight and gives him an aero advantage of around three watts.
We simulate the final climb to answer the question of which GC bike is faster for the final. The analysis shows a tiny mathematical advantage for the R5 of two tenths of a second over the S5. Tadej Pogacar's Colnago is four tenths faster than the R5.
The potential material effects for the final kilometres of the final climb of stage 6 of the 2023 Tour de France are therefore small. The legs will be the deciding factor in the Pogacar vs. Vingegaard duel and not the material.
In our scenario, they lie between the slowest and fastest bikes in the field for the scenario under consideration. Heavier bikes in particular lose a few seconds.
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in some details. Of course, we have also not yet been able to analyse last-minute prototypes. Background to the simulation.
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes about technical and training topics for TOUR and develops test methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years and they are also used by professional teams.