The third and longest stage is sprinter's terrain. Over 230 kilometres, there are only 1100 metres of climbing to be completed - that's virtually flat. The sprinter teams will do everything they can to put their fast men in the limelight. Everyone is fresh, everyone is hot and wants to show what they can do. That's why breakaways have poor chances this early in the Tour. Only the two mountains in the fourth category could help them a little. But in the wake of the peloton, even the heavy men will quickly roll over the short and not too steep spikes in the profile. And if not: there are still almost 50 kilometres to the finish from the last summit. Plenty of distance for a sprinter's train at full steam to plug any gaps.
The approach to the finish in the city centre also suits the teams, as it is dead straight and there is nowhere to hide. The technical difficulties are also minimal. 900 metres before the finish is a manageable left-hand bend, followed by another 200 metres further on, then the 700 metre long and seven metre wide home straight.
The sprinters could hardly wish for more clarity. The most prominent will probably be Mathieu van der Poel, who will try to drag Jasper Philipsen into the best position in his usual manner.
For Mark Cavendish, it will be the first opportunity to increase his number of stage wins from 34 to 35. This would make him the sole record holder ahead of Eddy Merckx, with whom he still has to share the status of best stage collector at the Tour. However, it is highly unlikely that Cavendish will prevail on this manageable route.
Many years ago, the Brit provided the blueprint for what sprinters need to do to become really fast. Cavendish was the first road sprinter to play the aero card extensively. Since then, he has found many imitators. When the longest stage of the Tour comes to an end, it will be like a track sprint just before the finish line. Strong guys will be gripping narrow handlebars, wearing skin-tight suits and aerodynamically optimised helmets - all with the aim of minimising air resistance and gaining an advantage of one or two hundredths or even thousandths of a second. Because at a speed of 70 km/h, one thousandth of a second means two centimetres ahead, i.e. just one tyre thickness. That can be the difference between victory and defeat. What does this mean for the choice of tyre?
In our virtual sprint over the final 200 metres, the Canyon Aeroad CFR comes out on top. Jasper Philipsen not only has the perfect rider, but also the right sports equipment for his discipline. However, the mathematical advantage of five thousandths of a second over the heavier Cervelo S5 is extremely narrow.
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in some details. Of course, we have not yet been able to analyse last-minute prototypes. Background to the simulation.
The simulation shows that the aero wheels come out on top in the sprint. The ranking corresponds to the aero ranking, with weight differences still having an effect in detail. The journey time is very short, but the speed is extremely high. The calculated final speed is 67 km/h.
On the following day, the sprinters face a tough challenge in the form of the Galibier. They will be all the more motivated today to fight for every millimetre in their discipline.
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes about technical and training topics for TOUR and develops test methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years and they are also used by professional teams.