In contrast to the previous day, the route of the second stage is hilly and there are three short climbs on the programme in the finale, which change the tactics of the race and are also important for the equipment.
Pure sprinters have no chance in the finale. 9.7 kilometres before the finish, the climb to the Côte de Saint-Etienne-au-Mont (1 km, 10.8%) begins, followed by the Côte d'Outreau at 203.8 kilometres and the "final climb" of 1.2 km with an average gradient of 3.8%. Not really mountain giants, but enough to pull the plug on pure sprinters.
Tactically, puncheurs like Mathieu van der Poel or Wout van Aert, who have explosiveness and stamina, have an advantage today. It would be another chapter in their long rivalry if they were to duel directly in this final.
But the final is also good for Tadej Pogačar. It is quite possible that he will make a statement here, even if it is only by a few seconds in the overall standings.
The short but steep cliffs in the tarmac raise the question of all questions when it comes to the material: as light as possible, or as aerodynamic as possible, or something in between?
Our simulation has the answer. We simulate a hard kick-off at the foot of the Côte de Saint-Etienne-au-Mont - an attack in the style of Mathieu van der Poel.
14 seconds between the fastest and the slowest bike for the finale of the second stage. If Wout van Aert favoured the Cervélo R5 with 6.8 kg over the aerodynamically faster but heavier S5, he would lose 14 seconds just because of his choice of bike.
Because the two bikes from Cervélo form the antipodes in our calculation. The S5 is the fastest bike and even just beats the slightly more aerodynamic Van Rysel RCR-F Pro because it is around 400 g lighter. Other aero bikes follow in second place. Mathieu van der Poel is also very well equipped with the Canyon Aeroad. Tadej Pogačar would also be well equipped with the Colnago Y1Rs and thus clearly better served than with the Colnago V5Rs.
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in some details. Of course, we have not yet been able to analyse last-minute prototypes. Background to the simulation.
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes about technical and training topics for TOUR and develops test methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years and they are also used by professional teams.