The 14th stage is the Pyrenean classic over the three climbs Tourmalet, Aspin and Peyresourde before the finish in Luchon-Superbagnères. A total of 4950 metres in altitude have to be climbed - a tough day's work for the sprinters and a definite chance for breakaways, as it is uncertain whether this will be another big day in the overall classification. The gaps are already so clear that breakaways will have a better chance of getting through.
Breakaway riders who want to get away in the first 60 kilometres before the climb to the Tourmalet have to equip themselves aerodynamically to get away at all. Weight counts on the climbs, but the gradients on the Pyrenean giants are not extreme. Aero all-rounders are therefore presumably a good basis if escape is an issue. GC riders are also well served by lightweight aero all-rounders, which allow you to ride at speed downhill. If a captain is isolated, which can happen at any time on such a stage in the second half, aero qualities count in order to catch up again if necessary.
On the final climb, just before the finish, there is one kilometre with an average gradient of ten per cent to climb. If it comes down to seconds poker here, a light bike is a small advantage - especially if there is a close fight for the stage win.
In today's simulation, however, we're looking at which bike would be most likely to support a long escape.
The result of the calculation is clear. A breakaway rider rides a good four minutes on an aerodynamically good bike, which should be as light as possible in view of the many climbs. Once again with a lead at the finish: the Cervélo S5 in the Visma setup.
The table shows that breakaways on this mountain stage with a lightweight aero all-rounder have a good chance of saving energy and saving a lead to the finish.
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in some details. Of course, we have also not yet been able to analyse last-minute prototypes. Background to the simulation.
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes about technical and training topics for TOUR and develops test methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years and they are also used by professional teams.