Tour de France 2024 - 14th stage: Pau - Saint-Lary-Soulan Pla d'Adet | 151.9 kilometres
Into the mountains: 4000 metres in altitude have to be conquered on the first stage in the Pyrenees. First in the profile is the majestic Tourmalet, a mountain of the highest category, followed by a climb of the second category and finally the difficult final climb, which is very steep right at the start with gradients of over 10 per cent. The final climb has an average gradient of 7.9 per cent over 10.6 kilometres.
What course will the stage take? Will Tadej Pogacar attack again? And if so, where? Will he repeat his tactics from the Galibier and attack on the Tourmalet, which is the steepest towards the end? Or will he ride more defensively now that Vingegaard looked so strong in the Massif Central and so effectively neutralised Pogacar's lead on stage 11 at the rather inconspicuous Col de Pertus?
There is much to suggest that Pogacar will act a little more cautiously. The two superstars will probably be eyeing each other up and waiting for a sign of weakness from the other. It is quite possible that they will neutralise each other, as the final climb is not very suitable for a late attack, as the gradient decreases towards the end.
But even if the superstars only neutralise each other, breakaways could fall victim to the hellish pace of the two when they contest their elimination race over three summits and sprint for another stage win at the end.
Our simulation centres on the final climb. Who has the best material in the battle for yellow and/or the stage win when the final climb is taken at full gallop from the bottom to the top?
Number of the day: 30 seconds
According to our simulation, the fastest bike has a lead of 30 seconds over the slowest on the final climb. Realistically, however, nobody who wants to have a say in this stage will be riding an 8.3 kg bike, which is in last place in our calculation. On the other hand, even the favourite is not riding a very fast bike, as the following table shows. We weren't allowed to weigh Pogacar's bike this year, but the 7.45kg in our list is the weighed weight from last year, and the specs haven't changed. Any differences in weight can only be explained by a lighter frame. However, the fact that we were not allowed to weigh it suggests that the bike is still overweight. This in turn is actually astonishing: the best rider in the world's most important cycling race is riding a bike that doesn't fully utilise the regulations. That's hard to understand.
We have an analytical answer to Jonas Vingegaard's daily S5 or R5 oracle: the R5 is actually one second faster on the simulated final climb. Unless, of course, Vingegaard opts for a 1x12 drivetrain like on the Galibier. With 300 grams less mass and even better aerodynamics, the S5 would be a few seconds faster than the R5 in this set-up.
The (almost) entire field at a glance*
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in some details. Of course, we have not yet been able to analyse last-minute prototypes. Background to the simulation.
Table: The virtual riding times on the final climb. As expected, the lightweight bikes are at the top of the rankings. There are aerodynamic effects on the flatter part of the climb, which is why the Tarmac SL8 takes first place in the overall ranking with a good compromise between weight and aerodynamics.
Our expert
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes about technical and training topics for TOUR and develops test methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years and they are also used by professional teams.
