Tour de France 2024 - 12th stage: Aurillac - Villeneuve-sur-Lot | 203.6 kilometres
On paper, the twelfth stage does not present any major difficulties. There are 2200 metres of altitude to overcome over 204 kilometres. The start is still a little hilly, but the stage flattens out towards the end. The course of the race has a lot to do with the previous day and the rider's motivation. The day before was very tough, sprinters may have finished on the last groove.
In principle, there can be both: a bunch sprint or a successful escape. If a good group goes early, even before the first mountain classification of the fourth category, it is conceivable that they will make life difficult for the sprinter teams. With the right composition, such breakaway groups have in the past pulled out such big leads in the second half of the Tour that the sprinters' teams were no longer able to catch up. The rule of thumb is: one minute per 10 kilometres is considered catchable (for example 47 vs. 43 km/h). In the last ten to 20 kilometres, two minutes per 10 kilometres is also possible if the breakaways are flat and the sprinters take it seriously and average 55 km/h or more (and the escape group "only" manages 46 km/h).
One argument against the breakaway is that several sprinter teams have come away empty-handed so far and this is the third last opportunity to change that. Moreover, the sprinters' team is always cohesive, the breakaway only works well if the constellation is right. This means that nobody who is still within striking distance in the overall classification can be part of the group. A strong sprinter is also poison for an escape group. Ideally, several similarly strong riders should have a realistic chance of finishing the breakaway victoriously.
In our simulation, we assume that the action begins shortly after the start and that a larger group is formed early on. What influence would the equipment have on a 175-kilometre escape?
Number of the day: 6:04 minutes
The fastest aero bike saves 6:04 minutes mathematically over the 175 kilometres of escape that we simulate, compared to the slowest bike in the field.
The bike therefore plays a part in making a successful escape. But the composition of the group, an efficient riding style and good pacing are essential. The escapees should keep a reserve after the stormy initial phase in order to be able to hold their own against the pressing peloton in the finale. Then the sprinter teams could miscalculate.
The (almost) entire field at a glance*
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in some details. Of course, we have also not yet been able to analyse last-minute prototypes. Background to the simulation.
No surprise: good escape bikes are aero bikes. After all, an escape is basically a time trial.
Review: World champion sprint extended
Aero bikes are also set in the sprint: On Tuesday, Mathieu van der Poel and his Alpecin-Deceuninck team managed the perfect lead-out, world champion-like so to speak, to match the jersey. With 1400 metres to go, the Alpecin team was in the lead with four men and formed the front of the racing peloton. Christophe Laporte from Visma | Lease a Bike fought alongside Wout van Aert as the lone rider. Alpecin held on to the lead through the combination of corners, van Aert lost contact with Laporte and van der Poel opened his lead-out sprint just before the 400 metre mark, accelerating to full sprint speed and giving Jasper Philipsen a perfect launch pad. The latter extended the sprint and was able to hold on safely by a wheel's length. The riders behind him caught up, but were unable to completely make up for their positional disadvantage. The first truly organised sprint move in this Tour brought an equally clear result and shows that the lead-out method still works when it is implemented as well as it was on stage 10.
Our expert
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes about technical and training topics for TOUR and develops test methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years and they are also used by professional teams.
