Tour de France 2024 - Stage 1: Florence - Rimini | 206 kilometres
The first stage is a blast! After 28 kilometres, the roll-in to the 111th Tour de France is already over and the first of countless climbs looms ahead of the riders, which will add up to 3600 metres in altitude. The first climb is only 930 metres and the average gradient of 5.1 percent over 12.5 kilometres is not huge. But from kilometre 38.9 onwards, it gets quite steep in places. The peloton will not arrive at the top of the Col de Valico Tre Faggi as a whole.
Two races are expected: the one for the stage win and the first yellow jersey as well as the first battle between the riders for the overall classification. Whether breakaways get away at all will depend on how the classification riders act. A defensive tactic seems most likely. The Tour de France cannot be won on this first stage, but it can be lost. This will put the favourites under pressure and make it difficult for breakaways to get away from the top riders.
What does Tadej Pogacar do?
The race is expected to get really hot from kilometre 130 onwards, with four climbs in quick succession, the first of which is the toughest. Narrow roads and poor tarmac make the ascent and descent tricky. In principle, it is a nervous classics stage of the Liège-Bastogne-Liège format. It is therefore to be expected that the classics riders in the peloton who are not aiming for the overall classification will be active here. However, the climb to the Cote de Barbotto will be too long for the classics king Mathieu van der Poel. If the action starts here, strong all-rounders will have an advantage. Tadej Pogacar could ignite the turbo here. No rider in the field is stronger than the overall favourite on this terrain.
So much for the tactical tableau. But what does that mean for the equipment on today's stage? After all, this is the tech briefing. We want to give you a feel for the questions facing the race engineers, what options are in play and which teams may have a better chance than others due to their equipment.
Who is better off today? A rider who can choose between a mountain bike and an aero bike, or a rider who doesn't have to worry, like Primoz Roglic, because he rides a bike for everything, the Specialized Tarmac SL8, voted the best road bike in the world by Tour?
3600 metres in altitude? A mountain bike must be ideal, right? To provide an answer to this question, we assume in our simulation that there is actually an open exchange of blows at the Cote de Barbotto and that the 70 kilometres to the finish are fully ridden - for example by a strong climber in the breakaway. Which bike would be the fastest under these conditions?
Number of the day: 2:39 minutes
The slowest bike in our analysis, the Cervelo R5, loses 2:39 minutes compared to the fastest, the Canyon Aeroad CFR.
The real difference is likely to be a little bigger, as the Canyon has been reworked and is probably a little lighter than it appears in our list. We will update the weights as soon as we have had bikes on the scales in the paddock. However, these details are not decisive for today's calculations. The simulation shows very clearly that the aerodynamic attributes have a greater effect than a little less weight on longer rides.
The (almost) entire field at a glance*
*) The calculations are based on the bikes tested by TOUR in the laboratory and wind tunnel. The bikes at the Tour de France may differ in some details. Of course, we have not yet been able to analyse last-minute prototypes. Background to the simulation.
In the overall standings, the aero bikes are mathematically far ahead. The final 26 downhill to flat kilometres played a decisive role in this. If you want to save a lead from the Cote de San Marino to the finish in Rimini, you need equipment that helps to keep the pace high at all times and the pack of chasers at a distance. The riders who speculate on attacking will therefore pull out the entire aero repertoire. Fast bike, aero onesie, aero helmet. Air resistance is relentless and enemy number one.
However, choosing the right bike is not quite as straightforward as our figures suggest. This is due to the fact that gradients of over ten per cent are to be expected at the moment of the attack. In some cases, a lightweight bike has an advantage here - at least if the aero bike is overweight. Which is why Visma | Lease a Bike will perhaps be launching mountain bikes based on the Cervelo R5 after all. If we only look at the uphill sections of the finale and leave out the downhill sections, the advantage of the lightest bike over the heaviest in our list adds up to 53 seconds. A captain who is protected can consciously accept aero disadvantages if he assumes that he will never be exposed to the wind alone.
A breakaway rider, on the other hand, wants a bike that is light and as aerodynamic as possible in such a scenario. Light so as not to be at a disadvantage when attacking uphill and aerodynamic to carry the lead safely to the finish. The bikes from Van Rysel or Specialized would be a good basis for this.
Let's see which bikes the teams bring to the start line and which tactical variant will be used.
Our expert
Robert Kühnen studied mechanical engineering, writes about technical and training topics for TOUR and develops test methods. Robert has been refining the simulation calculations for years and they are also used by professional teams.
