Stage 19 will run from Gap to Alpe d'Huez on 24 July 2026, covering a distance of 127.9 kilometres. After several climbs (Col Bayard, Col du Noyer, Col d’Ornon), the final ascent takes the riders up the famous 21 hairpin bends to the winter sports resort at an altitude of 1,850 metres.
Pantanis’s time as a benchmark
In 1997, Marco Pantani set the official mountain record on Alpe d’Huez in a head-to-head race against Jan Ullrich and Richard Virenque: 37 minutes and 35 seconds. At the time, the distance measured was 14.5 kilometres. However, when converted to the shorter distance of 13.8 kilometres used today, this ride is not considered his fastest: Following several recalculations, Pantani actually clocked his fastest time on the modern route as early as 1995 – 36 minutes 50 seconds, just a hair’s breadth ahead of his own 1997 ride (36 minutes 55 seconds).
Pantanis’s performances remain unrivalled to this day: he dominates the list single-handedly, holding the top three spots for the fastest times ever recorded. His best times, however, are inextricably linked to the doping era of the 1990s.
Since then, numerous top riders have tried to match these times. Lance Armstrong clocked 37:36 in 2004 and remains in fourth place on the all-time list to this day. Pogačar himself, with a time of 39:08 set in 2022, is in 18th place on the all-time list, well behind the times set in the 1990s.
35 minutes and 59 seconds is theoretically possible
Tadej Pogačar has the physical attributes needed to challenge the record. Modern cycling technology also helps him convert his watts into forward momentum as efficiently as possible, rather than wasting them unnecessarily. Robert Kühnen’s simulations from our Tech Briefing show: With an average power output of 440 watts, Pogačar could complete the climb in 35:59 minutes. That would equate to approximately 6.7 watts per kilogram and would be a new personal best.
However, this calculation describes an ideal scenario in which Pogačar would have to ride the climb at maximum speed from the very first metre. Any tactical restraint, an attack only in the upper section, or prior exertion from the stage’s climbs would worsen the potential finishing time.
The simulation carried out by the technical expert therefore demonstrates one thing above all: Pantani’s record is theoretically achievable. However, it does not predict how the race will actually unfold.
Our forecast
At 127.9 kilometres and without the usual gruelling high-mountain climbs beforehand, the 19th stage is short and comparatively easy by Alpe d’Huez standards. This means riders may approach the final climb to Alpe d’Huez with relatively fresh legs. The idea that a 30-year-old record could be broken under these conditions is therefore not far-fetched, were it not for the fact that Pogi’s team is struggling There is also speculation about Pogačar’s health, as he recently opted for black cycling shorts instead of yellow ones. Does he too have these ‘stomach problems’? As well as his health, the situation in the race will certainly determine whether Pogačar really does ride at full throttle from the foot of the mountain. An attack only in the top third, a general classification duel on the horizon or a tactical wait-and-see approach would mean that even 440 watts sustained wouldn’t translate into a time of 35:59 minutes. Motivation is also crucial: a mountain record doesn’t add a single second to the general classification, and it’s difficult for outsiders to gauge just how much Pogačar values such a milestone for himself. With the stage profile, modern cycling technology, Pogačar’s form and the necessary dose of motivation, the ingredients for a new record are laid out on a plate. Whether he seizes the opportunity and puts everything together just right remains to be seen. What do you think?
Sandra Schuberth
Editor