Milan-San Remo - the favourites: Sprinter Wiebes against the climbing specialists

In cycling, experience is an important prerequisite for all success strategies. And when it increasingly comes from outside, in times of ever younger winning riders. Take Milan-San Remo in 2009, for example, where four-time winner Erik Zabel explained the upcoming race in such detail that the youngster Mark Cavendish, who was instructed by him, only had to follow everything to the letter. It was a case of painting success by kilometre and landmarks. In the end, the then 23-year-old youngster from the Isle of Man won the race on his very first appearance - only Heinrich Haussler almost spoilt the planned triumph with a late attack. The German looked like the winner in the live picture - the photo finish showed that "Cav" had the front wheel. At the time, it was the perfect realisation of a race plan that almost failed. This is the eternal story at Milan-San Remo - with the predicted return of the eternal and then rather regular surprises. But while the men can look back on 100 years of racing and the finale with Cipressa and Poggio has looked the same since 1982 - apart from the brief intermezzo with the additional Le Manie climb - the women lack this experience. Still. Or again.

After all, the women's race had not been held for 20 years. Women's cycling has also changed since then and has become much more professional. The first edition last year was correspondingly disorientated. The majority of the female cyclists seemed paralysed at the first race after a break of more than 20 years. While Team UAE Team Emirates has been refining its strategies for years to wear down all competitors and Tadej Pogacar finally won the race after many unsuccessful attempts, the women's peloton lacks this experience of trial and error. That is now set to change. Lessons have been learnt. Last year, everyone was looking at the supposed top favourite Lotte Kopecky, who was considered a reference in any one-day race that wasn't too mountainous after winning two world championship titles in a row. But before the competition knew it, the climbs were over and it became clear that Kopecky had put herself at the service of her even faster team-mate Lorena Wiebes and had no ambitions of her own. The Dutchwoman completed the Via Roma with ease. "Now I understand Pogi's problem," said Demi Vollering, who had somehow failed to get rid of annoying rivals in time.

Same route, new scenario?

The only one who seriously resisted the later success scenario was the Italian Elisa Longo Borghini - but her later attempt to escape was thwarted by Kopecky. Now the aggressive Italian is giving herself courage: "Last year left me with a bitter aftertaste. The race is one of my most important goals of the season. Compared to last year, the race could be more selective because we all know the course better now, especially the final. And I think I have the right team to do it this time." Keyword: experience. Her big goal for Milan-San Remo is also: more attention for the women and a longer race distance, as she said in an interview with TOUR (the interview can be found here).

For a different scenario, some of the top riders would have to form an alliance - Demi Vollering, Longo Borghini and Kasia Newiadoma would have to pull together - in other words, do everything they can to outsprint the sprinters, especially Wiebes. But the Polish rider Niewiadoma, for example, usually drops her legs as soon as she realises that she can't break away on her own - because she is very likely to lose out to Vollering or Kopecky in the sprint.

Wiebes must be considered the top favourite

Experience or not: defending champion Lorena Wiebes must also be considered the top favourite this year. The Dutchwoman, who celebrated her 27th birthday on 17 March, has proven since the start of the year that she is still by far the fastest sprinter among the women. "This year we want to win again as a team. But it could be a completely different race situation now that everyone knows the last two climbs," she said with a view to the 2026 race. So she also has experience to draw on.

In her and her team's favour is the fact that she has her SD Worx-Protime team-mate Kopecky as a helper or second tactical option. With her victory in the Nokere Korse on Wednesday, the 30-year-old Belgian proved that she can win sprints in a field with a much weaker line-up and is (once again) a potential winner. As runner-up in the Tour de France in 2023, she has proven that she is also a good climber. However, it was not yet clear whether she is back in top form. "Lotte and Lorena are now travelling to Italy and there they will discuss how to solve this," SD Worx sporting director Christian Kos told sporza.be recently, adding: "Will Kopecky have to sacrifice herself? Both are fit, that's a luxury problem. We can sort that out together." The main rival of the SD Worx riders is likely to be the FDJ-SUEZ team, which has not yet announced its line-up for the "Primavera". Demi Vollering would be the best trump card and should try everything to leave the faster Wiebes and Kopecky far behind on the Poggio at the latest. At her side - as options - she has the Frenchwoman Juliette Berthet (née Labous), possibly also the Swiss rider Elise Chabbey, the recent surprise winner at Strade Bianche, and the much improved German champion Franziska Koch.

The Canyon racing team with several options

The German team Canyon-SRAM-zondacrypto has also expanded its tactical portfolio. In addition to team captain Niewiadoma, the sports department led by Rolf Aldag (and incidentally also by Erik Zabel) is also sending top Italian sprinter Chiara Consonni into the race. The more teams send a sprinter into the race, the more likely the scenario of a sprint from a larger field becomes.

With Marianne Vos, without Pauline Ferrand-Prévot

The still fast, tactically clever and experienced Marianne Vos (Visma-Lease a bike), who finished second last year, and the Swiss rider Noemi Ruegg (EF Education-EasyPost), who came third last year, are likely to be among the favourites. The same goes for the Italian former world champion Elisa Balsamo (Italy/Lidl-Trek) and Kim Le Court Pienaar (Mauritius/AG-Soudal), who proved last year that she can both climb and sprint well with her victory at Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Eyes will also be on the 19-year-old Brit Cat Ferguson (Team Movistar), who is regarded as a sprinter of the future and will definitely be one to watch if she is part of the first group after the descent from the Poggio.

The Germans in supporting roles

German riders are likely to play a minor role. Liane Lippert (Team Movistar) has cancelled her start at short notice. In recent years, she has been regarded as a racer who can compete at the front of such races. Franziska Koch said in the TOUR interview that she definitely wants to achieve a good result at Milan-San Remo in the future (the interview with her can be found here). Maybe this year already?

The transmission times - TV

* The men's race can be followed during this time on HBO Max and discovery+ (internet live stream). The Eurosport 2 channel is subject to a charge.

The broadcast times - Livestream

The race can be seen in full length on HBO Max and discovery+. Details at www.eurosport.de or https://play.discoveryplus.com/

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