Milan-San Remo: Expert Erik Zabel predicts a duel between Pogačar and van der Poel

Erik Zabel is quite sure that 22 March 2025 will be a day spent in front of the television. The date of the Milan-San Remo cycling race still has a firm place in his life. Even around a quarter of a century after he last won there himself. He knows all the key sections, he knows all the pitfalls of the race. He has won four times: in 1997, 1998, 2000 and 2001. In between, in 1999, Andrej Tschmil escaped on the finishing straight, the Via Roma in San Remo. Zabel finished second. In 2004, the professional cyclist from Unna, then wearing the jersey of Team Telekom, was certain that he had triumphed for the fifth time and threw his arms up in celebration. But then Oscar Freire shot past in the final metres, virtually under Zabel's armpit. A typical case of Denkste! Or a warning to everyone that even after almost 300 kilometres, the longest professional cycling race requires full concentration, full power down to the last centimetre, right up to the finish line. And is full of surprises - right to the very end.

The right tactics for Cipressa and Poggio

"Difficult question!" says Zabel, when asked to decide on favourites ahead of the 116th edition of the race. Hardly anyone knows better than Zabel that there are few certainties in Milan-San Remo. Even if, like him, you can recite the key points and landmarks in your sleep. As soon as the church tower of San Lorenzo al Mare becomes visible on the horizon, the alarm bells should be ringing for the favourites and their teams: This is when the "leadout" begins, a kind of sprint approach to the start of the "Cipressa" climb - off to the right of the main road. The next finale begins at the roundabout, one kilometre before the start of the Poggio - the last climb in the race, where the victory was usually decided. Choosing the right line is crucial. Inside line, you ask - so right at the turn-off to the right into the climb? "Left!", Zabel shouts into the phone, as if he's on the team radio microphone and has made a serious tactical error during the race.

The central question for all observers: Will Tadej Pogačar now also win the fourth of five so-called Monuments - as the toughest, longest, oldest cycling races are called? He has already won the Tour of Flanders, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Tour of Lombardy. Only the Primavera, as the Milan-San Remo spring season opener is called, and Paris-Roubaix are still missing from his palmarès.

Hardly any changes to the Milan-San Remo route

The route of the first major spring classic of the season has been largely identical for decades, says Zabel. The start is no longer in the centre of Milan, at Castello Sforzesco. Instead, for the second time in a row, it will be in Pavia, around 30 kilometres further south in the Po Valley. However, the overall distance, currently 288 kilometres, and the elevation profile of the route have changed only marginally at best. What's new in recent years? "There is more road furniture. And the basic speed has increased significantly," explains Zabel. Road furniture, as traffic-calming measures such as traffic islands and speed bumps are called in English, have made the race more dangerous. And the so-called ride into spring, from the often still foggy Po Valley to the often sunny Mediterranean coast, is even less of a coffee ride than it used to be. For the spectators, the cycling fans, including Zabel, it is above all the visible cycling events that have changed. Many cycling races can now be watched from the start on Eurosport/Discovery. "You used to be able to cycle 80 kilometres yourself in the morning before the race started," jokes Zabel. Now the ex-professional cyclist wants to see how the race develops from the start - whether the teams stick to the guidelines always set by the sporting directors of only letting a small group of a maximum of a handful of riders go. Then, after a start phase, the race largely calms down before the descent from the Turchino Pass is likely to create the next moments of stress - around halfway through the race distance. "You can actually go cycling yourself between kilometres 20 and 220," the expert surmises. There will be little of interest on the screen.

>> The route of the men's race in detail

>> The route of the women's race in detail

>> Interview Trixi Worrack: "It was an accident that I won"

>> Lotte Kopecky: World champion and soon to win the Tour de France?

>> How can Pogačar win Milan-San Remo?

Women's race celebrates comeback at Milan-San Remo

This is true if you look at the men alone. This year, for the first time in 20 years, there will be a women's race at Milan-San Remo. "It would be a shame if you couldn't see it," says Zabel, who also advises the women's team CANYON//SRAM around Tour de France winner Kasia Niewiadoma. "The women's race is much more open," he estimates. The women's final, which should start around two hours before the men's race, could be a good break filler if not much happens in the men's race. The women start in Genoa, have around 150 kilometres of racing ahead of them, the same final as the men. World champion Lotte Kopecky has picked the comeback of the race for her season opener - as has Olympic champion Kristen Faulkner. In Zabel's day, that would have been unimaginable. "In the past, a team wouldn't have included anyone in the line-up who hadn't raced before," recalls the long-time professional cyclist. Times are changing. Professional cyclists, both men and women, train much more specifically for the high points. World champion Kopecky against the 2023 Tour winner Demi Vollering - that could be the women's duel.

And if the competition doesn't let Kopecky go, their team SD Worx - Protime has the current best sprinter Lorena Wiebes in the line-up as a kind of threat, who is unlikely to be able to beat her in the final on the Via Roma. But things are looking bad for the sprinters this year. The forecast announces a tailwind - from the east, it will push the cyclists along the coast on the Via Aurelia. If that's the case, it would mean an advantage for the attackers. "You can't go faster than fast," is one of Zabel's many time-honoured cycling adages. To be more precise: with a tailwind, the slipstream of team-mates plays less of a role, even a single rider can go very fast. A disadvantage for chasers and sprinters.

The scenarios have been the same for the men over the last few decades. Attacks on the Cipressa or Poggio, sprints by small groups or a greatly reduced peloton on the Via Roma. Long solo rides like Fausto Coppi's in the post-war years are unimaginable in modern cycling. To make a prediction for the 116th edition of the race, Zabel looks back to 1995. Back then, Maurizio Fondriest and Laurent Jalabert dueled for victory in La Classicissima from the Cipressa. The Italian Fondriest, world champion in 1998, did not manage to break away solo as he had done two years previously. Jalabert, who is fast and has a strong climbing ability, came out on top in a two-man sprint. Zabel suspects a similar scenario with new faces: his two top favourites are Pogačar and van der Poel - with disadvantages for the Slovenian in the direct duel: his world champion jersey and the role of favourite make him and his team UAE stand out. "It's as if he has a warning light on his helmet," is how Zabel describes it. And in a direct duel, the Dutchman van der Poel is faster in the sprint - he just has to follow his rival. But all that remains grey theory on race day. And that's why Zabel and thousands of other cycling fans will be sitting in front of TV screens and live streams - because in the end it's still exciting and unpredictable. Every year again.