* Julian Alaphilippe, Biniam Girmay, Tiesj Benoot, Oier Lazkano, Nils Politt
** Stefan Küng, Alberto Bettiol, Tim Wellens, Matej Mohoric
*** Mads Pedersen, Matteo Jorgenson
**** -
***** Mathieu van der Poel
* The more stars a driver receives, the higher they are rated
The Heavy mass crash at Dwars door Vlaanderen has had a decisive influence on the composition of the field of favourites for the 2024 Tour of Flanders: Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike) suffered several broken bones and would have been one of the hottest candidates for victory. Another favourite, Jasper Stuyven (Lidl-Trek), is out after the crash.
His team-mate Mads Pedersen should have been rated even higher. But the Dane also fell and suffered bruises and abrasions. Although he is due to start on Sunday, his state of health will be closely monitored, Lidl-Trek announced. Especially as the winner of Gent-Wevelgem will probably still be feeling the effects of his crash injuries on Sunday, which means he loses one star from four to three in our rating.
This leaves one of the firm favourites for the Tour of Flanders 2024: Mathieu van der Poel. The Dutchman skipped Dwars door Vlaanderen during the week and was already in outstanding form last week with victory at the E3 Saxo Classic and second place at Gent-Wevelgem. Without crashes, defects or other mishaps, a scenario in which van der Poel does not win the Ronde is difficult to imagine.
But with the competition, hope dies last. Visma | Lease a Bike is most likely to have the best chance of pestering van der Poel. The Dutch team's strategy for the Tour of Flanders was fully centred on van Aert. But at Dwars door Vlaanderen, the team has already proven that it can also improvise. Matteo Jorgenson and Tiesj Benoot initiated the group of the day after the mass crash. In the final, the two took it in turns to attack and put the competition to the sword. Jorgenson won in the end and proved that he is in very good form. The US-American is therefore also Visma | Lease a Bike's hottest candidate for the Ronde. Jan Tratnik and Dylan van Baarle would also have been options for the Dutch team. However, Tratnik also pulled out of Dwars door Vlaanderen during the week after a crash at Gent-Wevelgem and did not make the squad. Van Baarle is included, but has been ill recently.
On paper, UAE Team Emirates also has a strong line-up with Tim Wellens, Nils Politt and Marc Hirschi. However, they have yet to achieve major success in this year's Flemish classics. Hirschi did not finish the E3 Saxo Classic and was 32nd in Dwars door Vlaanderen, while Politt finished seventh in E3, 27th in Gent-Wevelgem and 12th in Quer durch Flandern after starting his classics campaign with second place in Omloop het Nieuwsblad. The rider from Cologne is therefore not an absolute candidate for victory on Sunday, especially since Paris-Roubaix a week later. The team is more likely to rely on Tim Wellens, who has already finished 4th in the E3 Saxo Classic and can cope better with the Hellingen in Flanders than Politt and Hirschi.
In addition to Wellens, Matej Mohoric (Bahrain-Victorious), Alberto Bettiol (EF Education EasyPost) and Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) also receive two stars in our preview. Mohoric has great potential for the Flemish races, but has not yet been able to really call on it this year - 15th place at E3 and 13th at Gent-Wevelgem. Bettiol rode to an impressive victory with a 30-kilometre solo at Milan-Turin around a fortnight ago. The winner of the 2019 Tour of Flanders was also among the front runners at Dwars door Vlaanderen on Wednesday, but surprisingly fell back with cramps after his attack in the finale.
Just like Bettiol, Stefan Küng was also one of the dominant figures in Quer durch Flandern and finished third in the end. The Swiss rider's form is very good, but he needs to be more tactically clever than on Wednesday and not try to parry every attack himself.
Biniam Girmay (Intermarche-Wanty) was also one of the riders involved in the mass crash on Wednesday. The winner of Gent-Wevelgem 2022 was on the way back to his old strength, but will probably also be handicapped by his crash injuries on Sunday. Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal - Quick Step) would have received four stars here in his wedding. But the former world champion's form is not where it used to be. 49th place at E3 and 26th place at Dwars door Vlaanderen don't raise high hopes, but maybe the Frenchman will surprise everyone on Sunday.
The last candidate on our list is Oier Lazkano (Movistar). The Spaniard is an incredibly tough rider who is difficult to lose once he is in the right position. He has already proven this with third place at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne this year.