A 6-minute 51-second lead: The right bike for Stage 3 of the Tour de France Femmes

The climbing begins on the third stage. The route covers 157 kilometres from Geneva to Poligny. Right from the start, we’ll see a battle between the breakaway riders and the GC teams. The breakaway riders probably won’t be given a free ride, but they’ll give it a go all the same.

As the biggest climb comes right at the start, strong teams will have plenty of time before the finish to reel in any breakaway riders.

A total of 2,500 metres of climbing must be tackled. The third stage is therefore not a true mountain stage. Nevertheless, even with a profile like this, there could be shifts in the general classification. If the pace is high right from the start – which is the most likely scenario – the peloton will soon break up into small groups following the fast start.

​The stage starts off hilly, but flattens out towards the end. It’s not a day for pure sprinters. The stage is likely to be decided in a sprint from a group that includes the GC contenders.

The number of the day: 6 minutes 51 seconds

We are simulating an early breakaway over the full distance to assess the impact of the bikes. Result: a fast and lightweight aero bike builds up a lead of 6 minutes and 51 seconds over a bike that is merely lightweight.

Despite the elevation gain, aerodynamics are the dominant factor. However, a successful solo breakaway is unlikely when aerodynamic performance is key, as the slipstream effect favours the chasers. Several riders will need to team up to have a realistic chance of winning the stage.

The official pace chart assumes an average speed of 40 km/h. In our simulation, the average speed is 39.75 km/h; to achieve this, an average power output of 265 watts would be required for a rider weighing 56 kg. Not impossible, but quite a challenge. The strongest riders could probably manage it if they gave it their all, but they’ll be pacing themselves differently in a stage race.

An overview of the (almost) full line-up*:

​The table shows that Aero-Material is well suited to a long solo breakaway. It can be inferred from the results that support riders and GC contenders should also optimise their set-up accordingly, so as to be fully prepared for long, fast-paced sections on this stage.

* Simulation calculations

Based on our own wind tunnel tests, we carry out simulation calculations for the Tour de France tech briefing. How TOUR tests: Aero road bike test in the wind tunnel.

We are investigating which wheels can offer a technical advantage in which situations. The variables we can control in the simulation include wheel weight, rider weight, the inertia of the wheels, the drag coefficient, the rolling resistance coefficient and the efficiency of the drivetrain.

To model ride times, we use realistic power outputs and weights for the riders, combine these with our wind tunnel data, and have the riders race virtually along selected sections of the route, which we extract from the official route data; the derived elevation profiles are key to this. The modelling also includes bends, which we can brake for realistically, and adjustable power profiles for different types of riders. This allows us to distinguish between hill climbs and proper final sprints. Taken together, this makes the simulation very realistic. What we cannot replicate are dynamic handling effects such as the individual behaviour of the wheels on different surfaces.

The journey times calculated for the sections of the route that are decisive for the race highlight the influence of the wheels – provided that the riders always behave in the same way in a given scenario.